Schumpeter’s Teoria Dinâmica do Desenvolvimento Econômico

1. Schumpeter’s Teoria Dinâmica do Desenvolvimento Econômico Prof. Dr. Antony Mueller UFS Novembro 2009

2. Schumpeter, Keynes, Marx • Joseph Alois Schumpeter (1883-1950) • John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) • Karl Marx (1818-1883) 1867 Primeiro volume de “O Capital” de Karl Marx 1912 “Teoria do Desenvolvimento Econômico” de Schumpeter 1936 “Teoria Geral de Emprego, de Juro e da Moeda” de Keynes 1942 “Capitalismo, Socialismo e Democracia” de Schumpeter

3. O papel do empreendedor • Desenvolvimento econômico é um processo de mudanças produzidas pelas inovações • O ator que realiza as inovações é o empreendedor (como “Idealtypus”) • O empreendedor se destaca pela capacidade de realizar idéias • O empreendedor não depende de fundos próprios, mas usa o sistema bancário para financiar o seu projeto

4. Inovação significa a realização de • Fabricação de um novo bem • Introdução de um novo método da produção • Abertura de um novo mercado • Estabelecimento de uma nova organização econômica (monopólio econômico) • Conquista de uma nova fonte de matérias-primas (incluindo energia)

5. O capitalismo é o sistema de inovação permante • O capitalismo representa um sistema econômico de inovação permanente • O processo da inovação implica uma “destruição criativa” • A destruição criativa cria a prosperidade (produção em massa para as massas) • O consumidor é soberano: o consumidor, no ato de compra, escolha qual inovação vai ter sucesso no mercado

6. Concorrência dinâmica • Imputação do valor (o valor do produto para o consumidor determina o valor do bem de investimento com qual se produze este produto) • A concorrência é dinâmica e existe em “saltos do sapo” – “leap-frogging” • A concorrência dinâmica não acontece em primeiro lugar por preços, mas por novos produtos e novos métodos de produção (que em sua vez afetam os preços)

7. Conhecimentos obsoletos • Inovações fazem não somente produtos obsoleta, mas também desvalorizem conhecimentos antigos em favor de novos conhecimentos; • Este tem um impacto profundo sobre o mercado de trabalho, estrutura salarial e estrutura social. • Todos os dia uma nova chance

8. Monopólio • Grandes empresas e monopólios econômicos tipicamente representam o resultado de uma inovação de sucesso – • e não representam necessariamente um problema no processo competitivo (ao contrário) porque estas empresas estão expostas em sua vez do mesmo processo do “salto do sapo”.

9. Aprendizagem é evolutiva • Aprendizagem (ciência, tecnologia, organização) é evolutivo (incluindo “saltos”) e acontece no nível individual (empresa) mas se manifesta setorial e muda a estrutura da economia • O desenvolvimento econômico se manifesta em longas ondas (50–70 anos) • Inovações têm a tendência de aparecer em clusters • A vida da empresa está ligada ao ciclo de inovação • O ciclo de negócio de longa duração reflete o ciclo de inovações

10. “A Racionalidade” do sistema capitalista e os seus inimigos • O capitalismo representa uma força de racionalidade que entra em quase todos os aspectos da vida incluindo a esfera privada • Modernidade é a racionalidade do sistema capitalista • O capitalismo produz os próprios inimigos, em particular entre a “classe” dos “intelectuais”

11. Modelo básico do desenvolvimento econômica schumeteriano • Empreendedor • ↓ • Inovação ← Empréstimos (Mercados Financeiros) • ↑ • Soberania do Consumidor (escolha) • ⇛ Destruição criativa • ⇓ • Desenvolvimento Econômico • ↙ ↘ • Produção em massa Mudança (econômica e social) • e para as massas

12. Pontos problemáticos da teoria de Schumpeter I: Subestimação da dinâmica capitalista • Falta de um modelo coerente • Falsa prognóstica sobre o futuro do capitalismo (como todos, Schumpeter também era “criança do seu tempo”) • Subestimação da dinâmica adaptiva capitalista • Superestimação da extensão da “racionalidade” econômica no sistema capitalista

13. Pontos problemáticos da teoria de Schumpeter II - Cultura • Falta de reconhecer que o dinamismo do capitalismo se estende para a cultura (Entertainment business, show business), cultura popular (filmes, TV esporte), eventos, turismo, etc. • Subestimação do tamanha como o capitalismo moderno precisa de pessoal academicamente formados (“intelectuais” nas áreas de direito, administração, engenharia, propaganda, mídia, etc.)

14. Pontos problemáticos da teoria de Schumpeter III – Novos mercados • Schumpeter subestimou a capacidade do capitalismo (dos empreendedores no sistema capitalista) de criar novos mercados, novos produtos e novas formas de organização • Schumpeter subestimou a capacidade do capitalismo de expandir a produção em massa para as massas • Schumpeter subestimou a capacidade do capitalismo de integrar tendências animosas (criando um mercado para os inimigos do capitalismo)

15. Citações das obras de Schumpter • Capitalism…is by nature a form or method of economic change and not only never is but never can be stationary. CSD, 82. • The fundamental impulse that sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes from the new consumers’ goods, the new methods of production or transportation, the new markets, the new forms of industrial organization that capitalist enterprise creates. CSD, 83.

16. Destruição criativa • Capitalism is]…the perennial gale of creative destruction. CSD, 84. • The essential point to grasp is that in dealing with capitalism we are dealing with an evolutionary process. CSD, 82. • The changes in the economic process brought about by innovation, together with all their effects, and the response to them by the economic system, we shall designate by the term Economic Evolution. BC, 86. • Economists are at long last emerging from the stage in which price competition was all they saw.…In capitalist reality…it is not that kind of competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology, the new source of supply, the new type of organization…competition which…strikes…existing firms…at their foundations and their very lives. This kind of competition is…much more effective than the other…and [is]…the powerful lever that in the long run expands output. CSD, 84–85.

17. Inovação • Innovation is the outstanding fact in the economic history of capitalist society or in what is purely economic in that history, and also it is largely responsible for most of what we would at first sight attribute to other factors. BC, 86. • Surely, nothing can be more plain or even more trite common sense than the proposition that innovation…is at the center of practically all the phenomena, difficulties, and problems of economic life in capitalist society. BC, 87. • Individual innovations imply, by virtue of their nature, a "big" step and a "big" change. BC, 101.

18. O ciclo de inovação como base dos ciclos econômicos • All we can thus far say about the duration of the units of [the business cycle] and of each of [its] two phases is that it will depend on the nature of the particular innovations that carry a given cycle. BC, 143. • These revolutions periodically reshape the existing structure of industry by introducing new methods of production—the mechanized factory, the electrified factory, chemical synthesis and the like; new commodities, such as railroad service, motorcars, electrical appliances; new forms of organization. CSD, 68. • Those revolutions are not strictly incessant; they occur in discrete rushes which are separated from each other by spans of comparative quiet. The process as a whole works incessantly however, in the sense that there always is either revolution or absorption of the results of revolution, both together forming what are known as business cycles. CSD, 83, footnote 2.

19. Vida das empresas • Most new firms are founded with an idea and for a definite purpose. The life goes out of them when that idea or purpose has been fulfilled or has become obsolete or even if, without having become obsolete, it has ceased to be new. That is the fundamental reason why firms do not exist forever. Many of them are, of course, failures from the start. Like human beings, firms are constantly being born that cannot live. Others may meet…death from accident or illness. Still others die a "natural" death, as men die of old age. And the "natural" cause, in the case of firms, is precisely their inability to keep up the pace in innovating which they themselves had been instrumental in setting in the time of their vigor. BC, 94–95.

20. Papel de lucro • Profit…is the premium put upon successful innovation in capitalist society and is temporary by nature: it will vanish in the subsequent process of competition and adaptation. BC, 105. • Practically every enterprise [is] threatened and put on the defensive as soon as it comes into existence. BC, 107. • For profits to emerge it is essential that the "suicidal stimulus of profits" should not act instantaneously. BC, 105. • Without development there is no profit, without profit no development. TED, 154.

21. Definição de “capitalismo” • Capitalism is that form of private property economy in which innovations are carried out by means of borrowed money…[that is,] credit creation….Most of the features…of capitalism would be absent from the economic and…cultural process of a society without credit creation….Therefore, we shall date capitalism as far back as the element of credit creation. BC, 223–24. • Credit creation [is] the monetary complement of innovation. This relation…is at the bottom of all the problems of money and credit. BC, 111.

22. Efeito sobre fatores de produção • The carrying into effect of an innovation involves, not primarily an increase in existing factors of production, but the shifting of existing factors from old to new uses….If innovation is financed by credit creation, the shifting of the factors is effected not by the withdrawal of funds—"canceling the old order"—from the old firms, but by the reduction of the purchasing power of existing funds which are left with the old firms while newly created funds are put at the disposal of entrepreneurs: the new "order to the factors" comes, as it were, on top of the old one, which is not thereby canceled. BC, 111–12.

23. O empreendedor • For actions which consist in carrying out innovations we reserve the term Enterprise; the individuals who carry them out we call Entrepreneurs. BC, 102. • The entrepreneur may, but need not, be the "inventor" of the good or process he introduces. Also, the entrepreneur may, but need not, be the person who furnishes the capital. BC, 103. • Risk bearing is no part of the entrepreneurial function. It is the capitalist who bears the risk. The entrepreneur does so only to the extent…he loses other people’s money. BC, 104.

24. Produção em massa • The capitalist process, not by coincidence but by virtue of its mechanism, progressively raises the standard of life of the masses. It does so through a sequence of vicissitudes, the severity of which is proportional to the speed of the advance. But it does so effectively. One problem after another of the supply of commodities to the masses has been successfully solved by being brought within the reach of the methods of capitalist production. CSD, 68. • The capitalist engine is first and last an engine of mass production which unavoidably means also production for the masses. CSD, 67.

25. Produção para as massas • Electric lighting is no great boon to anyone who has money enough to buy a sufficient number of candles and to pay servants to attend them. It is the cheap cloth, the cheap cotton and rayon fabric, boots, motorcars and so on that are the typical achievements of capitalist production, and not as a rule improve-ments that would mean much to a rich man. Queen Elizabeth owned silk stockings. The capitalist achievement does not typically consist in providing more silk stockings for queens but in bringing them within the reach of factory girls in return for steadily decreasing amounts of effort. CSD, 67.

26. Os “intelectuais” • I felt it my duty…to inflict upon the reader…my paradoxical conclusion: capitalism is being killed by its achievements. CSD, xiv. • Capitalism inevitably…educates and subsidizes a vested interest in social unrest. CSD, 146. • One of the most important features of the later stages of capitalist civilization is the vigorous expansion of the educational apparatus and particularly of the facilities for higher education. CSD, 152. • Capitalism stands its trial before judges who have the sentence of death in their pockets….The only success victorious defense can possibly produce is a change in the indictment. CSD, 144.

27. References • BC: Schumpeter, Joseph A. (1939), Business Cycles: A Theoretical, Historical, and Statistical Analysis of the Capitalist Process (New York: McGraw-Hill). • CSD: ——— (1950), Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy, 3rd ed. (New York: Harper and Brothers), orig. pub. 1942. • HEA: ——— (1954), The History of Economic Analysis (New York: Oxford University Press). • TED: ——— (1936), The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press).

28. Bibliografia • Schumpeter, Joseph A.: Capitalismo, Socialismo e Democracia http://www.4shared.com/get/39970271/e4003fa2/Capitalismo_Socialismo_e_Democracia_-_Schumpeter.html;jsessionid=B9518B20CECFF6925779E6BAC34ECC1D.dc115 • Schumpeter, Joseph A. : Teoria de Desenvolvimento Econômico http://www.4shared.com/file/32394233/fdacc520/Joseph_Alois_Schumpeter_-_Teoria_do_Desenvolvimento_Econmico.html?s=1

29. Literatura adicional • Hayek, Friedrich A.: O Caminho da Servidão http://www.4shared.com/file/25712422/10bad05e/Friedrich_A_Hayek_-_O_Caminho_da_Servidao.html?s=1 • Hayek, Friedrich A.: Os Princípios de uma Ordem Social Liberal http://www.4shared.com/get/141043287/53af73f6/Os_princpios_de_uma_ordem_social_liberal_-_Friedrich_August_Hayek.html • Mises, Ludwig v.: As Seis Lições (sobre política econômica) http://www.4shared.com/file/60400858/71bbe42b/Ludwig_von_Mises_-_As_Seis_Lies__Livro_.html?s=1 • Lachmann, Ludwig: O Capital e a sua Estrutura http://www.4shared.com/file/78110954/eb2734cd/Ludwig_Lachmann_-_O_Capital_E_Sua_Estrutura.html?s=1 • Lachmann, Ludwig: Sobre Expectativas http://www.4shared.com/file/86233084/36a696de/Ludwig_Lachmann_-_Sobre_Expectativas.html?s=1

30. Literatura adicional • Escolha e contrato: • Williamson, Oliver E.: The Theory of the Firm as Governance Structure: From Choice to Contract • http://groups.haas.berkeley.edu/bpp/oew/choicetocontract.pdf • Tecnologia e aprendizagem: • Cortright, Joseph: New Growth Theory. Technology and Learning. A Practicioner’s Guide (US Economic Development Administration) – • http://www.eda.gov/ImageCache/EDAPublic/documents/pdfdocs/1g3lr_5f7_5fcortright_2epdf/v1/1g3lr_5f7_5fcortright.pdf

31. Mais Recursos e Atualizações • Blog Economia Nova www.economianova.blogspot.com • Blog Sociologia econômica www.socec.blogspot.com • Podcasts, data shows, resumes, etc. http://continentaleconomics.com/AudioPodcastsemPortugues.html • E-mail do Professor Antony Mueller • antonymueller@gmail.com