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Racing Flow TM Incorporated racingflow

Racing Flow TM Incorporated www.racingflow.com. Overview & Tutorial May 25, 2009. Racing Flow TM Mission Statement www.racingflow.com. Foremost, we believe in “evidence based” handicapping For example, player often believe things like:

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Racing Flow TM Incorporated racingflow

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  1. Racing FlowTM Incorporatedwww.racingflow.com Overview & Tutorial May 25, 2009

  2. Racing FlowTM Mission Statementwww.racingflow.com • Foremost, we believe in “evidence based” handicapping • For example, player often believe things like: • first time starters breaking from the rail are a bad bet • second time Lasix users are a good bet, or • runners dropping from MSW to the MdClm level are taking the biggest drop in the game • We’ve have similar beliefs, but we will only act upon them once we’ve seen empirical evidence that they are correct • We don’t consider having had luck with a particular angle as “evidence”

  3. Racing FlowTM Mission Statementwww.racingflow.com • Racing FlowTM figures are designed to help serious handicappers do better: • If they are losing, our goal is to help them the break even • If they are breaking even, our goal is to help them win • If they are winning, our goal is to help them win more • We do this by supplying three measures not generally available to the handicapping public: BIAS, FLOW and BL12 • Each measure helps determine whether a particular race favored horses on or near the lead versus closers • Our purpose is profit • Our method is the proper use of BIAS, FLOW and BL12 • Our outcome Is a handicapper with an improved return on investment

  4. Some Important Racing FlowTM Terminologywww.racingflow.com • You’ve already seen the names of our measures: • BIAS • FLOW • BL12 • Before we explain them, we would like you to learn two more RacingFlowTM terms • ZIP • describes a race that is tough for speed horses and favorable to closers • PLOD • describes a race that is tough for closers and favorable to speed • Please rest assured that we won’t be introducing any new words

  5. Racing FlowTM Measureswww.racingflow.com BIAS • Most track bias guys consider whether inside or outside paths are best • We give this no consideration because: • a runner’s distance from the rail often cannot be objectively measured • the rail may be bad on the backstretch and good at the 1/8 pole • speed biases and rail biases typically occur at the same time • outside biases and closer biases typically occur at the same time • Our BIAS measure tells you whether a racing surface favored speed versus closers on a particular day • BIAS = 0 indicates no bias • A large negative BIAS (e.g., -200) indicates a speed bias • A large positive BIAS (e.g., +200) indicates a closer bias

  6. Racing FlowTM Measureswww.racingflow.com Using BIAS • A speedster running on a BIAS < -100 is termed with speed bias • A speedster running on a BIAS > +100 is termed vs. closer bias • A closer running on a BIAS > +100 is termed with closer bias • A closer running on a BIAS < -100 is termed vs. speed bias • The performances of with bias runners are downgraded • The performances of vs. bias runners are upgraded

  7. Racing FlowTM Measureswww.racingflow.com FLOW • Our FLOW measure tells you whether a particular race favored speed runner or closers • A FLOW= 0 means the race was neutral (i.e., fair) • a large negative FLOW (e.g., -200) indicates the race favored speed • a large positive FLOW (e.g., +200) indicates the race favored closers • FLOW is based on the logic that: • runners going too fast early will get very slow late • runners going nice and easy early will have plenty left late

  8. Racing FlowTM Measureswww.racingflow.com Using FLOW • a speed horse running in a race with a FLOW < -100 is termed with PLOD • a speed horse running in a race with a FLOW > +100 is termed vs. ZIP • a closer running in a race with a FLOW > +100 is termed with ZIP • a closer running in a race with a FLOW < -100 is termed vs. PLOD • The performances of with ZIP and with PLOD runners are downgraded • The performances of vs. ZIP and vs. PLOD runners are upgraded

  9. Racing FlowTM Measureswww.racingflow.com BL12 • BL12 is simply the number of lengths the race winner was behind the leader after 1/4 mile and after 1/2 mile. Thus, it provides a summary of how much ground the winner made up in the later stages of the race. • Here are some examples of BL12: • If a closer was 8 off after ¼ mile and 6 off after ½ mile, the BL12 is 14 • If a stalker was 1.5 lengths off after both ¼ and ½ miles, the BL12 is 3 • any gate to wire winner receives a BL12 of 0

  10. Racing FlowTM Assesses Races, Not Runnerswww.racingflow.com • If a horse runs 22 flat every time he breaks from the gate, most pace figure guys will give him about the same early pace figure each time • With Racing FlowTM, 22 flat is quick in a race run in 1:14, but slow in a race run in 1:08 • If the Beyer is 90, or the Ragozin is +3, that tells you about the quality of effort between gate and wire (for example, an excellent effort in a Alw 1x) • Racing FlowTM figures allow you to assess whether an individual runner achieved the 90 Beyer the easy way (with BIAS or FLOW) or the hard way (vs. BIAS or FLOW) • We believe the “easy way versus hard way” issue is the most overlooked aspect of the game, leading to important overlays and underlays

  11. The Biggest Racing FlowTM Upgradeswww.racingflow.com • For a speed horse, the biggest upgrade would be a series of races with: • big positive BIAS figures • big positive FLOW figures, and • big BL12s • The combination of these factors points out a runner that has raced better than most handicappers perceive • For a closer, the biggest upgrade would be a series of races with: • Big negative BIAS figures • Big negative FLOW figures • Low BL12s • Again, this combination points out a runner that has raced better than most handicappers perceive

  12. The Biggest Racing FlowTM Downgradeswww.racingflow.com • Runners with the opposite patterns are downgraded • The biggest speed horse downgrades are those exiting races with: • Big negative BIAS figures • Big negative FLOW figures • Low BL12s • The biggest closing horse downgrades are those exiting races with: • big positive BIAS figures • big positive FLOW figures, and • big BL12s

  13. Racing FlowTM Figure Patterns to look for:www.racingflow.com • There is no magic formula for using these figures, just as there is no formula for applying speed figures to your betting decisions. • Racing FlowTM figures can be an important part of you handicapping, but you still must handicap to be successful. For example, Guadalcanal came into the 2008 Belmont Stakes with several nice vs. PLOD efforts. But he was still a maiden in the Belmont! He wasn’t that much an upgrade! • Having said that, there several patterns we look for, including: • 2+ vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS efforts • 2+ vs. ZIP and/or closer BIAS efforts • vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS effort following a layoff • vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS winner of his last • vs. ZIP and/or closer BIAS effort by a runner turning back in distance

  14. 2+ vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS effortswww.racingflow.com • These are the last three running lines for So Glitzy when she went to post at Saratoga in a 2x allowance at 9 furlongs on 7/24/2008 • The recent FLOW and BIAS figures gave her little chance on 4/18, 4/25 or 6/26 • In her Saratoga effort, she returned $38

  15. 2+ vs. ZIP and/or closer BIAS effortswww.racingflow.com • These are the last two running lines for No Limit Poker when the gelding went to post in a maiden claimer at SA on January 25, 2009 • The 6/7 and 7/11 FLOW and BIAS figures indicate these were tough races for speed • His next effort resulted in a $10.60 win mutual after a long but successful stretch duel

  16. vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS effort following a layoffwww.racingflow.com • A runner who begins a new form cycle vs. PLOD often has his improved physical condition hidden from public view • An excellent example is Pays to Dream, who already had several nice Racing FlowTM figures on his resume, including 3 vs. PLOD wins • What sealed the deal was his vs. PLOD try on 4/27 • The runner paid $40 as the decisive winner of the Dixie Stakes on the 2008 Preakness card.

  17. vs. PLOD and/or speed BIAS winner of his lastwww.racingflow.com • Runners that are able to rally to win despite vs. PLOD conditions are an excellent bet to repeat. • This was the most recent running line for CordilIeran Ice when she appeared at the 2x level on the Aqueduct lawn on 11/2/2008. • She returned $19.80 in her repeat win

  18. vs. ZIP or closer BIAS, now turning back in distancewww.racingflow.com • Heavenly n’ Free seemed destined to become a lifetime maiden • When stretched out to two turns at Del Mar, it was her 8th consecutive defeat • After that vs. ZIP effort, she returned to the proper distance and won by 4 lengths, paying $10. • Here’s the running line of the prior race:

  19. Racing FlowTM Incorporatedwww.racingflow.com Frequently Asked Questions

  20. How is FLOW calculated?www.racingflow.com • We’ve developed statistical models using between 8 & 17 variables to predict the degree of closing that occurs at each track, surface and distance • Models were developed using a database of nearly 40,000 races, and are refined each week to predict how much closing would be expected in the about 200 races run on Racing FlowTM circuits • Model results are shared with subscribers as a FLOW figure, which typically ranges between -200 and +200, representing two standard deviation below and above the track/ surface/distance average • Some Racing FlowTM trivia: • The most speed favoring FLOW thus far detected (-445) was a TP mile with a 27.1 quarter and a 52.6 half • The most closer favoring FLOW thus far detected (+412) was a GP 6f sprint with a 20.9 quarter. The field needed another 50.2 seconds to reach the wire

  21. How is BIAS calculated?www.racingflow.com • On a race by-race basis,FLOW figures predict the degree of closing that would be expected on an unbiased track • If 6+ races were run in one day on the same surface, we compare model-predicted and actual degrees of closing to determine whether a particular surface, on a particular day, has favored speed versus closers • Model results are shared with subscribers as a BIAS figure, which typically ranges between -200 and +200, representing two standard deviation below and above the track/surface average • More Racing FlowTM trivia: • The most speed biased surface thus far detected was at CD on 6/18/2006 (-229) • The most closer biased surface thus far detected was at TP on 1/08/09 (+302)

  22. Why is BL12 important?www.racingflow.com • Because you will never again need to refer back to a chart to answer the crucial question: Where did the winner come from? • Why is this crucial? Consider: • A runner who battles on the front end and eventually finishes 2nd to another speed horse is not a particularly good bet next time out • A runner who battles on the front end and eventually finishes 2nd to a deep closer is a good bet next time out • A runner who battles on the front end in a race with BIAS and/or FLOW figures indicating the race favored closers, and eventually finishes 2nd to a deep closer, is a great betnext time out

  23. Why do your figures change slightly over time?www.racingflow.com • FLOW ratings tell you how far an individual race was from normal • By definition, normal (FLOW = 0) is the average of all races at this track, surface and distance since we began data collection • As we add more races to the database the average changes, so we recalculate every race run at each track, surface and distance • Changes in FLOW figures are almost always negligible • FLOW figures of +187 and +192 mean essentially the same thing, as do Beyer figures of 89 and 90

  24. How big should a figure be before I use it?www.racingflow.com • Some players use a plus or minus 100 limit, others use plus or minus 150 or even plus or minus 200 • The lower your limit, the more action. The higher the limit, the more certain you can be the runner was truly advantaged or disadvantaged • Some handicappers prefer to look for horses that raced vs. some degree of flow in multiple races. • An example would be a closer who has raced versus -108, -103, -172, -169, -115 and -105 FLOWs in his last six starts • A strict +/-150 cutoff may cause you to miss this one, but many FLOW players would considering him an excellent play if a stronger pace is expected today

  25. What’s Included in the Racing FlowTM Database?www.racingflow.com • Currently Available circuits are: • NYRA Aqueduct, Belmont & Saratoga • Kentucky Keeneland, Churchill Downs, Ellis Park & Turfway • So California Hollywood, DelMar & Santa Anita • So Florida Gulfstream & Calder • We expect to have available in 2009: • Arlington Park, Woodbine & Oaklawn • On the Drawing Board are: • Hawthorne & Fairplex

  26. Why are Racing FlowTM Measures sometimes missing?www.racingflow.com • We are unable to provide figures for about 1% of races. Reasons include: • failed or suspect fractional times • visibility problems (fog, snow) • unusual race distances • Another 1% of figures are annotated with the symbol “?” • A “?” means our statistical model is not as strong as we desire, usually due to a small size of races • We issue a figure, but let you know we have some questions with it • Lastly, we will not issue a BIAS figure unless 6+ races were run on the surface during the card. In these cases, BIAS is set equal to 0

  27. What are these Formulator Web Notations?www.racingflow.com • Besides BIAS, BL12 and FLOW, you will sometimes see these symbols: • VZW • vs. ZIP winner • The winner wired despite setting fast fractions • VPW • Vs. PLOD winner • The winner closed from BL12=10.0 or more despite slow fractions • Asterisks • * the FLOW rating was in the 150-199 range • ** the FLOW rating was in the 200-249 range • *** the FLOW rating was above 250

  28. Not very often. The figure below show the distribution of BIAS figures issued for four major tracks, on a 7-point scale How often are racing surfaces biased?www.racingflow.com

  29. Do some horses wire despite setting a ZIP?www.racingflow.com • Sure, but it’s not easy. The graphic shows the probability of a wire-to-wire victory in dirt/synthetic route races, by FLOW figure:

  30. Do some horses close despite being behind a PLOD?www.racingflow.com • That’s even tougher. The graphic shows the probability of a winner having a BL12 of 10+ in dirt/synthetic route races, by FLOW figure:

  31. Can FLOW figures be added and subtracted?www.racingflow.com • Not meaningfully. BIAS and FLOW figures reflect standard deviations from the mean. A FLOW of -300 (-3 on the graph) says the race favored speed at the 0.1% level. A +250 FLOW (2.5 on the graph) favored closers at the 0.6% level.

  32. What about when FLOW and BIAS counterbalance?www.racingflow.com • Handicappers handle the situation differently: • Some assume the race was neutral • Some give more weight to the BIAS figure • Some give more weight to the FLOW figure • Using the graphic on the prior slide, we suggest you consider how far the BIAS and FLOW figures are from normal • As an example, we interpret a BIAS -100, FLOW +200 race as moderately favoring closers • Remember that you can pass a race. Keep looking, and you’ll find a runner with less conflicting information soon.

  33. Can you use BIAS to compare different tracks?www.racingflow.com • No! • Any handicapper who has played at both venues knows that more closing occurs on the Del Mar synthetic than the Gulfstream dirt. • But BIAS figures compare one day’s card with all other cards on this track’s surface. • A normal day at Gulfstream receives a BIAS = 0, and a normal day at DelMar received a BIAS = 0.

  34. How much closing is normal?www.racingflow.com Here are the average BL12s for dirt/synthetic sprints. It comes as no surprise that the most closing occurs on synthetics

  35. How much closing is normal?www.racingflow.com Here are the average BL12s for dirt/synthetic routes:

  36. How much closing is normal?www.racingflow.com Here are the average BL12s for turf sprints:

  37. How much closing is normal?www.racingflow.com Here are the mean BL12s for turf routes:

  38. How can I have additional questions answered?www.racingflow.com • Questions about the Racing FlowTM database and statistical models should be sent to jake@racingflow.com • Questions about applying Racing FlowTM data to handicapping decisions should be sent to phil@racingflow.com • You can order Racing FlowTM products by contacting products@racingflow.com Best of Racing Luck, The Plod Boys

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