The Road to WWI The Balkans

1. The Road to WWI � The Balkans First Big point: after Germany unifies we have a nation that is united in Population Ethnicity Industry Militarism And, is a threat to the �balance of power� in Europe.

2. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Contrarily, we have Austria, which has been weakened by nationalist forces And, France having suffered at the hands of Prussia, was more than a little skittish over the prospects of its new, powerful neighbor Austria Who would emerge as the dominant Western European power?

3. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Bismarck, as much as a tyrant that he was, was not in the business of European wide expansion, nor was he interested in imperialism overseas. His primary agenda was to strengthen German, and make sure that France would not be able to form defensive alliances against him (Germany)

4. The Road to WWI � The Balkans First Key Step: Bismarck forms the Three Emperors League in 1837 ) Germany, Austria and Russia Yet, because of tensions between Austria and Russia over the Russo-Turkish War in 187 5, the league fell apart The Ottomans only existed because the other powers could not decide how to partition it. Russia saw any internal struggle in the Balkans as a possible means of acquiring Constantinople

5. The Road to WWI � The Balkans That is the primary reason Russia will allow/adopt a pro-Slavic stance in this time period. This brings us to a key point, which is the treaty of San Stefano in 1878 This concludes the war between Russia and Turkey, and will set the stage for the next great diplomatic crisis.

6. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Slavic states are freed from Ottoman Rule Russia gains territory and a cash settlement Yet, what are the consequences? Austria is now fearing that their own Slavic peoples will want independence And, if Russia gets control of the Dardanelle's, it could threaten British Control of the Suez

7. The Road to WWI � The Balkans A Congress of Berlin is called, essentially to try and reign Russia in. The fact that it was called in Berlin is a �tip of the hat� to the power of Bismarck and Germany Bismarck, ever the pragmatist, wanted anything that would avoid a war between France and Russia, with Germany literally caught in the Middle Russia, which had been riding high, were none too pleased about the results of the Congress.

8. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Most importantly, Austria-Hungary were given Bosnia and Herzegovina to �administer��Slavic states formerly under Ottoman control Germany bought and gained nothing Russia felt betrayed since they had aided Prussia against napoleon in 1807 This is what also kills the Three Emperors League

9. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Lastly, the Balkan states were all upset over this agreement Serbia and Montenegro, both Slavic, deeply resented the fact that Austria was now in control of their brother states. Big Surprise that it will be a Serb that shoots the Arch-Duke of Austria-Hungary in 1914?

10. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Now, Bismarck had to secure an alliance with Austria now that Russia was developing into a disenfranchised enemy 1879 � Germany forms the Dual Alliance with Austria-Hungary. Many felt that Germany had simply tied its fortunes to the weakening central European power.

11. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Bismarck saw the alliance as a horse and a rider, with Germany being the rider and Austria being the horse It was also Bismarck�s belief that Russia would never seek an alliance from either France or Britain As a result, he is able to re-establish a Three Emperor�s League on a more firm footing One key clause would be the one that would allow Austria to annex Bosnia Herzegovina whenever they wished.

12. The Road to WWI � The Balkans So�the French/Russian Alliance is now killed The possibility of Britain's Fleet steaming thorough the Dardanelle's is now moot And, it appeared that the conflict over control of the Balkans between Austria and Russia is now over

13. The Road to WWI � The Balkans The Triple Alliance _ Italy is allowed to join the Dual Alliance It appeared that Bismarck had solidified Germany's position They were allied with Russia, Austria-Hungary, Italy, Great Britain was effectively neutral France was isolated

14. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Bismarck also gets the Russians to sign the Reassurance Treaty in 1887 This states that both powers promised to remain neutral if either was attacked by anyone else. Here is a key issue in German history, and it shows yet again that often history is determined by the character of an individual

15. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Kaiser William II comes to power in 1888 He was everything that Bismarck was not He was an elitist He believed that Germany had to match Britain in global supremacy He wanted a growing Navy and Colonies He believed in divine right, and was generally a �high and mighty�

16. The Road to WWI � The Balkans William II had none of Bismarck�s vision, pragmatism, and diplomatic acumen Bismarck�s alliances had assured peace in Europe, and German security by defusing the Balkans. Hence, when Bismarck will be driven from office, we will see the fabric of Europe gradually unravel.

17. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Forging the Triple Entente � 1890-1907 How it all falls apart after the retirement of Bismarck� Germany refuses to renew the Reassurance Treaty (his successor could not do the math) Strangely enough, France and Russia would be driven together, something that Bismarck could have never envisioned�

18. The Road to WWI � The Balkans By 1894, France and Russia had formed a defensive alliance against Germany. What about Great Britain? Britain had always been wary of Russia, therefore it seemed to make sense that they would not ally with them as well. Yet, as Germany continued to contend economically with Britain, there developed a growing anti-German sentiment in Britain

19. The Road to WWI � The Balkans The real problem would come from an area that Bismarck had always avoided, getting involved in overseas empire building. As Britain continued to adopt a policy of �Splendid Isolation�, Germany pushed forward. So, the plan was to push Britain's buttons overseas, and provoke a response.

20. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Germany supports the Dutch Boers in the War against the British (for South Africa) Germany also increased their production of naval Vessels, something that Bismarck never thought important Strangely, the Germans didn�t really foresee the fact that Britain might actually increase the size of their navy as well!

21. The Road to WWI � The Balkans And, as the British finally pursue an alliance with the Germans, they are effectively ignored. The Entente Cordial The ending of British Isolation� 1902 � they Ally with Japan to defend interests against Russia in the Far East 1904 � they form The Entente Cordial with France They both recognized previously contentious colonial issues, and begins the long term alliance between the two powers

22. The Road to WWI � The Balkans The First Moroccan Crisis Germany is going to test the waters between Britain and France. (Would Bismarck have let it get to this point? Would he be this reckless?) Germany promotes Moroccan Independence�obviously goading the French, who control Morocco!

23. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Yet, when the issue was brought before international purview in 1906, Germany was summarily defeated, and both the United States and Britain sided with France. Ironically, because Germany had tried to push France around, it only brought France and Britain together!

24. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Britain and Russia? Sign an agreement? How could this happen? Remember, that France had an alliance with Russia. Would it not make sense for Britain to pursue a similar end? 1907 � Russia and Britain sign an agreement, and out of this comes the Triple Entente � forges against the Triple alliance of Germany, Italy and Austria - Hungary

25. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Now, William II had made the possibility of the two front war, both from France and Russia, a possibility. All of Bismarck�s Efforts at parity and peace in Europe had been destroyed. And, Germany was no longer in the position to determine the �fate� of Austria, as their own position had become weaker. Under Bismarck, France was isolated and weak Now, they were allied with the two Greatest powers in Europe!

26. The Road to WWI � The Balkans 1908 � 1914 The Ottoman Empire still had control in the Balkans, but Serbia, Greece, Romania and Bulgaria were effectively Independent Most had a common Slavic heritage, and had been rule by others, whether they be Austrian, Hungarian or Turkish And, it would become the Serbs who would carry this banner

27. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Let�s review�what were the conditions that lead us to the Balkan�s Crisis? Bismarck was able to negotiate a series of alliances and treaties that were able to mitigate the possibility of conflict in this area. He was able to ally Italy, Austria Hungary and Germany together Russia was brought in to the Dual Alliance Britain was not involved, and remained Splendidly Isolated�France was marginalized.

28. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Once Bismarck is dismissed, William II undertakes a series of policies that upset the stability of Europe, and cause, eventually, Great Britain, France the Russia to be allied Having done this, the possibility of the Balkans becoming more of a hot button area because of the changing alliance systems in Europe. This is the so-called �Bosnian Crisis.�

29. The Road to WWI � The Balkans As the Young Turks began a process of reviving the Ottoman Empire, the crisis began to involve both sides, particularly Austria and Russia A strong Turkey would pose a threat to both, and damage their control over the Balkans. The bargain that they struck would place all parties on a �war footing.�

30. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Russia agreed to give its approval for Austrian annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (previously simply controlled) Russia would be able to get warships into the Dardanelle's Austria jumps the gun, and Russia is humiliated when France and Britain refused their warships into the Dardanelle's And, the Serbs were now feeling frustrated.

31. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Germany doesn�t like this, but they really could not break with the Austrians. Second Moroccan Crisis Germany send a gunboat to the harbor in Morocco to protect German interests

32. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Again, even with some concessions to the Germans, what the action did was to, once more, bring Britain and France together Now, the Entente cordial, was truly solidified between France and G.B. Just as Germany�s fortunes seemed tied to Austria, so to were Britain's fortunes tied to France�s.

33. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Italy, allied with Germany, also jumped into the act. Ironically, because the Italians were moderately successful in gaining areas from the Turks, this encourages the Balkan states to try their hand against their oppressors. 1912 � combined forces win an easy victory against the Turks.

34. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Austria was alarmed, and did not want the Serbs to gain territory and a port on the Adriatic. As they sought to restrict the Serbs, the Russians saw this an opportunity to assist the Serbs. The Serbs, by September 1913, posed a true threat to Austria. And, the Austrians began to seek a clear end to this crisis.

35. The Road to WWI � The Balkans And, the Russians saw this as a way to promote Pan-Slavism in the Balkans. This leads us to the outbreak of the war in 1914

36. The Road to WWI � The Balkans The Outbreak of War. June 1914 � The Arch-Duke is assassinated in Sarajevo. It seemed now was the time for an Austrian response to the Slavic process. Germany promises Austria a blank Check, but to do so quickly and effectively.

37. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Would it be possible to localize this conflict, given all of the prior alliances that were established. William II, an ardent monarchist, was outraged over the assassination. Yet, Germany was really alone in their military position. Italy and Austria posed little a response, and against the Triple Entente war did not seem to be a welcome alternative. If Austria was not effective, then the Pan-slavism backed by the Russian posed a threat to Germany as well.

38. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Austria does not strike swiftly Serbia refused to concede to the Austrians By July 28th, 1914, Austria declares war on the Serbs, and the war had effectively begun. Russia partially mobilizes. Germany then mobilizes

39. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Elements within the Austro-Hungarian government had been itching to strike at Serbia during the immediate pre-war years, but had lacked a credible excuse to do so.� Nationalist pan-Slav agitation within Serbia, and which Austria-Hungary suspected was encouraged by the Serbian government, served only to destabilize Austro-Hungarian influence in the Balkans.

40. The Road to WWI � The Balkans With the dominoes starting to fall, it remained unclear what position Britain would take.� The German Kaiser was inclined to believe that Britain would look to her interests first and foremost and remain above the fray - after all, she had no obvious quarrel with either Austria-Hungary or Germany, at least in this matter.

41. The Road to WWI � The Balkans However, with Austria-Hungary's ultimatum of 23 July - and her declaration of war with Serbia five days later, the approach of war was rapidly hastened.� The day after Serbia received Austria-Hungary's declaration of war, 29 July, the capital Belgrade was placed under bombardment.

42. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Russia mobilized the following day, 30 July, as did Austria-Hungary.� The French, unwilling to start hostilities themselves, and painfully aware that this might serve only to alienate British sympathies, chose to withdraw their troops some 10 km all along the German border.

43. The Road to WWI � The Balkans On 31 July Germany demanded of Russia that she immediately demobilize, while requiring from France - with an answer expected within 12 hours - a declaration of neutrality in the event of war with Russia.� Germany's justification - that of self-defense - was regarded dimly by the French government, who replied that France would act in accordance with her own interests.

44. The Road to WWI � The Balkans With no answer received to Germany's ultimatum the next day from Russia, both Germany and France ordered mobilization on 1 August.� Stock exchanges panicked and many were closed.�

45. The Road to WWI � The Balkans Later that evening Germany formally declared war with Russia, despite Wilhelm's twelfth-hour panicked decision to try and abort the German invasion of Belgium and France (ignored by his Chief of Staff Helmuth von Moltke).

46. The Road to WWI � The Balkans June 28 Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the throne of Austro-Hungarian empire, in Sarajevo, Bosnia July 28 Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia July 29 - December 9 Austria-Hungary repeatedly invades Serbia but is repeatedly repulsed August 1 Outbreak of war: Germany declares war on Russia

47. The Road to WWI � The Balkans August 3 Germany declares war on France August 4 Germany invades neutral Belgium August 4 Britain declares war on Germany August 4 US President Woodrow Wilson declares policy of US neutrality August 14 Battle of the Frontiers begins

48. The Road to WWI � The Balkans August 17-19 Russia invades East Prussia August 23 Japan declares war on Germany August 23 - September 2 Austria-Hungary invades Russian Poland (Galicia)