VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATiON

1. VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATiON Amit Garg International Climate Change Conference, Johannesburg October 19, 2005 Source: India’s Initial national Communication to UNFCCC

2. The Setting India is a vast country (3.28 million sq km) Diverse physiographical features Himalayas, Coastal areas, northern plains, peninsular plateau and islands Occupies 2.4% of the worlds land area but support 16.2% of the worlds human population Dominating feature of climate is the Monsoon Endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversity and ecological regions Under such diverse natural conditions, a billion people speaking different languages, following different religions, inhabiting in rural and urban areas live in harmony under a democratic system

3. V & A activity under NATCOM • Modeling of climate projections using GCMs and RCMs • Projected temperature, rainfall, extreme events • Assessment of impacts and Vulnerability; different sectors • Water resources • Agriculture/crop production • Forests and natural ecosystems • Coastal zones • Industry, energy and infrastructure • Health; malaria • Preliminary assessment of adaptation strategies • Identify constraints to V&A assessments and adaptation

4. V&A – Institutional Arrangement

5. What are the projected changes in temperature on a regional scale? Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2 Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

6. What are the projected changes in precipitation on a regional scale? Projections of seasonal precipitation for the period 2041-60, based on the regional climate model HadRM2 Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

7. Climate Projections: Summary Maximum temperature:increaseby 2-4°C during 2050s in regions above 25oN. Minimum temperature:Increase up to 4oC all over the country. May exceed 4°C over southern peninsula, northeast India and some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Bihar. Monsoon Rainfall:marginal changes in monsoon months (JJAS) : Large changes during non-monsoon months Number of rainy days:Decrease in the number of rainy days over a major part of the country. More in western and central part (by more than 15 days) while near foothills of Himalayas (Uttaranchal) and in northeast India the number of rainy days may increase by 5-10 days. Extreme Rainfall events: overall increase in the rainy day intensity by 1-4 mm/day except for small areas in northwest India where the rainfall intensities decrease by 1 mm/day. Cyclonic storms: Increase in frequency and intensity of cyclonic storms is projected

8. What are the projected changes in river water availability on a regional scale? River basins of Mahi, Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi are likely to experience constant water scarcity and shortage. River basins of the Cauvery, Ganga, Narmada and Krishna are likely to experience seasonal or regular water stressed conditions Source: India’s Initial National Communication, 2002

9. Agriculture • Agriculture productivity will be impacted due to • Changes in temperature and rainfall • Rise in CO2 concentration in atmosphere • Occurrence of pests and disease • V&A ASSESSMENT INCLUDED; • Changes in food production with respect to rainfall • Effect of increase in temperature and CO2 on simulated grain yields (rice) • Impact of climate change on productivity of irrigated wheat National assessment based on climate impact modeling not yet feasible

10. Impacts of climate change- findings • Projection of a general decrease in rice yield with increase in temperature • Wheat yield are projected to decline from 4% to 24% in different regions • - (under scenario of; CO2of 425 ppm and 2o C warming) • Doubling of CO2 & warming (3o C) accompanied with reduction in rainfall will lead to; • - reduction in yields of several dry-land crops • Loss in farm-level net revenue predicted

11. Forestry Sector National level modeling undertaken to assess impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems; • applying the climate projections derived from HadRM2 • using BIOME 3 vegetation response model • Results Shift in forest types / boundary: • 75% of grids with forests are expected experience changes in forest types • 70% of Dry savannah is likely to change to Xeric Woodland • Dry moist savannah in in the North-Western parts, is likely to change to Xeric Shrub land • Moist savanna -located in North-East and parts of the Southern India is likely to be converted into Tropical Seasonal Forest Productivity: Increase in net primary productivity (NPP) in more than 75% of the grids with forests

12. Biodiversity Climate change is projected to increase species losses, particularly due to shift in forest boundaries Habitats of many species will move north ward from their current locations Upward migration of plants in the Himalayas could reduce the alpine meadows and related vegetation, thus impacting the habitats of several high altitude mammals including wild sheep, goat, antelope and cattle. Increase in precipitation over northeasternIndia leading to severe floods could place the wildlife in Kaziranga National Park at risk Present vegetation map Expected biome types under climate projections in 2050s. Present Biome Types under CTL run

13. Natural Ecosystems Broad preliminary national level assessment of impact of climate change on natural ecosystems (no modeling attempted) Results Grasslands: Under enhanced CO2 and increase in temperature,C4 species are likely to have a predominance over C3 plants. Mangroves: Mangroves just next to the sea will be submerged due to SLR and plants with high salinity tolerance will survive Increased glacier-melt bringing larger quantities of fresh water will favor mangrove species with least tolerance to salinity Coral reefs:Increase in temperature would lead to bleaching of Corals and submergence due to SLR  Present distribution of natural ecosystems in India

14. Health: An Overview Impact of climate change on incidence of malaria in India is assessed Results It is projected that by 2080s, malaria will penetrate elevations above 1800 meters and some coastal areas. 10% more states may offer climatic opportunities for malaria vector breeding throughout the year with respect to the year 2000. The transmission windows in northern states of Jammu and Kashmir and the western state of Rajasthan are likely to increase by 3 to 5 months In the southern states, however, the window is likely to shorten by 2 to 3 months Transmission windows of malaria in different states of India (a) in 2000 and (b) in 2080

15. AdaptationStrategies • Preliminary assessments made for different sectors; including assessment of current policies and programmes in relation to vulnerability • Most technologies & measures to address current stresses are also relevant to adapt to climate change (water, forest, agriculture, etc.) • Additional technologies & measures needed to address climate impacts • Further analysis needed to identify; adaptation technologies, measures, institutions, financial needs

16. Features / Limitations • Impact assessment is made using climate change projections using a single model outputs (RCM Had RM2) and single scenario (IS92a) • Uncertainty of projections of climate parameters at regional level • Limitations of models in assessing sectoral impacts at regional level (forests, crop production, water) • Limited data availability • Limited time (<12 months) and resources PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF V&A MADE UNDER THE NATCOM PROJECT

17. Future - V & A • Need for improved and reliable regional climate models and climate projections for impact assessment • Need for improved climate change impact or response models - Sectoral, Regional, & Integrated • Appropriate data generation for modeling • Assessment of impacts at regional level & identification of vulnerable regions, socio-economic systems • Development of adaptation strategies • Networking of institutions, capacity building, sustained research teams • Financial and institutional support needed • www.natcomindia.org