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問題 1

問題 1. 存貨生產 (Make to stock) ( push system ) 的優點與問題 成本、效率 vs. 產品多樣化、產品壽命週期短 … 為什麼 Coca Cola 可以？ 產業特性的考量 導入 POS ( pull system ) 可以決解所有問題？. 零售商. 零售商. 供應商. 供應商. 配銷商. 配銷商. 零售商. 零售商. 零售商. 零售商. 問題 2 —which one is better? 1. Push system. Pull system. 實體. 資訊. 消費者. 供應商. 團購網. 消費者.

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問題 1

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  1. 問題1 • 存貨生產(Make to stock) (push system)的優點與問題 • 成本、效率 vs. 產品多樣化、產品壽命週期短… • 為什麼Coca Cola可以？ • 產業特性的考量 • 導入POS (pull system) 可以決解所有問題？

  2. 零售商 零售商 供應商 供應商 配銷商 配銷商 零售商 零售商 零售商 零售商 問題2—which one is better?1 Push system Pull system 實體 資訊

  3. 消費者 供應商 團購網 消費者 消費者 零售商 供應商 零售商 零售商 問題2—which one is better?2 實體 資訊

  4. 6.1 Introduction1 • Effective SCM implies: • Efficient integration of suppliers, manufacturers, warehouses, and stores. • Coordinate activities across the supply chain • Improve performance: reduce cost, increase service level, reduce the bullwhip effect, better utilize resources, and effectively respond to changes in the market place.

  5. 6.1 Introduction2 • Various supply chain integration strategies: • Push, pull, push–pull strategy. • Matching products and industries with supply chain strategies. • Demand-driven supply chain strategies. • The impact of the Internet on supply chain integration.

  6. 6.2 Push, Pull, Push-Pull Systems • Push and Pull traditional categories of manufacturing operations • More recent hybrid strategy of combining the two, Push-Pull systems

  7. Push-Based Supply Chains1 • Production and distribution decisions based on long-term forecasts. • Manufacturerdemand forecasts based on orders received from the retailer’s warehouses.

  8. Push-Based Supply Chains2 • Longer reaction time to changing marketplace: • Inability to meet changing demand patterns. • 例如，NOKIA在智慧型手機市場節節敗退… • 例如，平板電腦對筆記型電腦的衝擊…推出Ultra Book…However, ipad 已經推出第三代… • Obsolescence of supply chain inventory as demand for certain products disappears. • 例如，DRAM

  9. Push-Based Supply Chains3 • Longer reaction time to changing marketplace: • Variability of orders receivedmuch larger than the variability in customer demand due to the bullwhip effect. • Excessive inventoriesdue to the need for large safety stocks • Larger and more variable production batches • Unacceeptableservice levels • Productobsolescence

  10. Bullwhip Effect in Push-Based Supply Chains • Leads toinefficient resource utilization • Planning and managing are much more difficult. • Not clear how a manufacturer should determine production capacity? Transportation capacity? • Peak demand? • Average demand? • Results: • Highertransportation costs • Higherinventory levels and/or higher manufacturing costs • more emergencyproduction changeovers

  11. Pull-Based Supply Chains1 • Production and distribution demand driven • Coordinated with true customer demand rather than forecast demand • firm does not hold any inventory and only responds to specificorders.

  12. Pull-Based Supply Chains2 • Intuitively attractive: • Reducedlead times through the ability to better anticipate incoming orders from the retailers. • Reduced inventory since inventory levels decrease with lead times • Less variability in the system • Decreased inventory at the manufacturer due to the reduction in variability.

  13. Problems of Pull-Based Systems • Difficult to implement when lead times are so long that it is impractical to react to demand information • Harder to leverageeconomies of scale • —Doesn’t work in all cases―現在訂mini，四個月後交車…

  14. Push-Pull Strategy • Some stages of the supply chain operated in a push-based manner • typically the initial stages • Remaining stages employ a pull-based strategy. • Interface between the push-based stages and the pull-based stages is the push–pull boundary.

  15. The Supply Chain Time Line Customers Suppliers PUSH STRATEGY PULL STRATEGY High Uncertainty Low Uncertainty Push-Pull Boundary Push-Pull Supply Chains

  16. Build to Stock Forecast demand Buys components Assembles computers Observes demand and meets demand if possible. A traditional push system Build to order Forecast demand Buys components Observes demand Assembles computers Meets demand A push-pull system The push-pull boundary is at thebeginning of assemble. Consider Two PC Manufacturers:

  17. General Strategy • Make a part of the product to stock – generic product (CPU，DRAM…) • The point wheredifferentiationhas to be introduced is the push-pull boundary • Based on extent of customization, the position of the boundary on the timeline is decided

  18. Push-Pull Strategies―Advantage of the rules of forecasting • Forecasts are always wrong (pull strategy) • The longer the forecast horizon the worst is the forecast(finished goods) (push-pull boundary) • Aggregate forecasts are more accurate (components) (push strategy) • The Risk Pooling Concept

  19. Push-Pull Strategies―Postponement • The firm designs the product and the manufacturing process so that decisions about which specific product is being manufactured can be delayed as long as possible. • The portion of the supply chain prior to product differentiation is typically operated using a push-based strategy. • The portion of the supply chain starting from the time of differentiation is pull-based.

  20. Demand uncertainty (C.V.) Pull Push I Computer II Furniture IV Books & CDs III Grocery Delivery cost Unit price Pull Push What is the Best Strategy about Push – Pull Strategy? H L L H Economies of Scale

  21. Selecting the Best SC Strategy1 • Higher demand uncertaintysuggests pull • Higher importanceofeconomies of scale suggests push • High uncertainty/ EOS not important (Box I) such as the computer industry implies pull(例如，Dell Computer) • Low uncertainty/ EOS important (Box III) such as groceries implies push • Demand is stable • Transportation cost reduction is critical • Pull would not be appropriate here. • 例如，可口可樂

  22. Selecting the Best SC Strategy2 • Low uncertainty but low value of economies of scale (Box IV)(high volume books and cd’s (產品壽命週期短) • Either push strategies or push/pull strategies might be most appropriate • High uncertainty and high value of economies of scale (Box II) • For example, the furniture industry • How can production be pull but delivery push? • Is this a “pull-push” system?

  23. 案列討論 • 書籍或CD採push or push-pull策略―科技的影響 • 傳統印刷廠―一刷、二刷、三刷…(push) • 導入電腦之印刷製程―大量進紙，欲增印，直接更改文件檔…(push-pull) • 家俱業基於實際需求進行生產(pull)，訂定固配送排程，總合所有運往相同區域商店的商品，依固定時間進行運送(push)以降低運輸成本

  24. Push-Pull Strategy ― Case Study • Coca cola • 御便當…(短前置時間、低需求變異)(連續補貨)(第三方物流、POS、EOS) • McDonald’s… • Sport Obermeyer (example 6-3, p.196) • Low-risk products  push strategy • High-risk products  push-pull strategy • 精品咖啡店 • 單品咖啡―顧客要求小批、多樣化、即時烘焙 push-pull strategy • 意式咖啡 push strategy

  25. Characteristics and Skills Raw Material Customers Push Pull • Low • High Uncertainty • Short Cycle Times • Service Level • Responsiveness • Order fulfillment • High • Low Uncertainty • Long Lead Times • Cost Minimization • Resource Allocation • Supply chain planning Complexity Uncertainty Lead time Objective Focus Processes

  26. Locating the Push-Pull Boundary1 • The push section: • Uncertainty is relatively low • Economies of scaleimportant • Longlead times • Complex supply chain structures • Thus • Management based on forecasts is appropriate • Focus is on cost minimization • Achieved by effective resource utilization – supply chain optimization • 例如，IC產業

  27. Locating the Push-Pull Boundary2 • The pull section: • Highuncertainty • Simplesupply chain structure • Shortlead times • Thus • Reacting to realized demand is important • Focus on service level • Flexible and responsive approaches • 例如，網路購物…

  28. Locating the Push-Pull Boundary3 • The push section requires: • Supply chain planning • Long term strategies • The pull section requires: • Order fulfillment processes • Customer relationship management • Buffer inventory at the boundaries: • The output of the tactical planning process • The input to the order fulfillment process.

  29. 案例 • 精品咖啡店的push-pull boundary―自家店內 • 生豆進貨push (前置時間長、運輸成本高) • 單品烘焙pull(顧客要求小批、多樣化、新鮮—即時烘焙)

  30. Locating the Push-Pull Boundary4

  31. 6.3 The Impact of Lead Time1 • Longer the lead time, more important it is to implement a push based strategy. • Typically difficult to implement a pull strategy when lead times are so long that it is hard to react to demand information.

  32. Impact of Lead Time2 FIGURE 6-10: Matching supply chain strategies with products: the impact of lead time and demand uncertainty

  33. Impact of Lead Time3 • Box A • Items with shortlead time and high demand uncertainty • Pull strategy should be applied as much as possible. • Box B • Items with long supply lead time and low demand uncertainty. • Appropriate supply chain strategy is push.

  34. 問題討論 • 眼鏡業 vs. 紅酒製造業者 ― short lead time and high demand uncertainty vs. long lead time and low demand uncertainty ― pull vs. push

  35. Impact of Lead Time4 • Box C • items with short supply lead time and highly predictabledemand. • Continuous replenishment strategy • Suppliers receive POS data • They use these data to prepare shipments at previously agreed-upon intervals • A pull strategy at the production and distribution stages and push at the retail outlets. • 例如，食品雜貨業之較短生命週期的產品(麵包、乳製品)

  36. Impact of Lead Time5 • Box D • Items with lead times are long and unpredictable demand • Inventoryis critical in this type of environment • Requires positioning inventory strategically in the supply chain

  37. 問題討論 • 御便當 vs. Blu-ray ― short lead time and low demand uncertainty vs. long lead time and high demand uncertainty ― continuous replenishment vs. inventory positioning

  38. 6.4 Demand-Driven Strategies • Requires integrating demand information into the supply chain planning process • Demand forecast: • Use historical demand data to develop long-term estimates of expected demand • Demand shaping: • Firm determines the impact of various marketing plans such as promotion, pricingdiscounts, rebates, new product introduction, and product withdrawal on demand forecasts.

  39. Effect of forecast error • 高需求預測誤差對供應鏈績效表現帶來不利的影響，造成銷售損失、過時存貨，以及無效率的資源利用。

  40. 預測誤差的估計 • 平均絶對誤差(mean absolute deviation, MAD) • 均方誤差(mean squared error, MSE) • 平均絶對百分比誤差(mean absolute percent error, MAPE)

  41. 預測的監控1―管制圖 • 管制中心線(Center Line, CL)：CL=0 • 管制上限(Upper Control Limit, UCL) • 管制下限(Lower Control Limit, LCL)

  42. 預測的監控2―追蹤訊號 • 追蹤訊號的目的在於偵測誤差的任何偏差 • 數值為0最為理想，正負4到正負5的界限常被作為可接受範圍。若數值落在可接受範圍外，會被視為有預測偏差的訊號，此時需進行矯正動作。 • 當計算出第一個MAD值後，可用指數平滑法更新MAD

  43. 降低預測誤差的方法 • 選擇推－拉界線使需求能透過下列一個或多個構面來彙總需求：產品 、地理區域 、時間 • 使用市場分析、人口統計學及經濟趨勢改善預測的準確性(因果法) • 決定各店最佳產品組合以便降低在同一市場競爭的商品種類。 • 將顧客結合到協同規劃與預測程序中，以便更瞭解市場需求、促銷影響、價格事件與廣告。 • Collaborative Planning Forecasting and replenishment, CPFR)

  44. 案例 • 3DS預購活動… • 利用預購量預測市場可能需求量…

  45. 案例 • 宜蘭燒餅 vs. 無錫排骨 • 上網瀏灠  滙款  宅配到府 vs. 只有無錫的賣場有賣… • 網路實體零售商 (click-and-mortar) vs. 實體零售商 (brick-and-mortar) • 案例，向台中的咖啡店訂咖啡… • ＊大與＊美相關老店 vs. 虛實整合商店…

  46. 理論應用 • 麻雀的尾巴一旦拉長，也會變成鳳凰 ― 長尾理論 (the long tail) • 問題 • 便利商店80%的營收來自400個品項，其餘1400個品項的營業額僅有兩成… • 7net • 案例 • 搶攻宅經濟！ㄧ通電話訂LV送到家　接單量增2倍

  47. 問題 • Amazon 的興衰…

  48. 6.5 The Impact of the Internet on Supply Chain Strategies1 • Expectation that increasing use of the internet would solve a lot of the business problems • However, reality was very different • Many of the problems in the internet-based businesses were related tologistics strategies

  49. 問題討論 • 網路賣年菜… • 鮮食直送 vs. 第三方低温物流+便利商店取貨 • 物流的問題解決了，但是口味…

  50. The Impact of the Internet on Supply Chain Strategies2 • E-business strategies were supposed to: • Reduce cost • Increase service level • Increase flexibility • Increase profit

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