1 / 15

SemiWEEK: Forecasting 2021: How to approach it

Read More: https://bit.ly/2Yg28Yv<br>Forecasting 2021: How to approach it. What won't work, what will, and what it means. Hereu2019s the thing: Using conventional econometric or time-series models based on historical data simply won't work this time

VLSI
Download Presentation

SemiWEEK: Forecasting 2021: How to approach it

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Semiconductor WEEK: June 5, 2020 An overview of results and conclusions from recent reports at VLSI Chip Market Research Services It's been a green spring, but the view is too close • Summer is here for equipment suppliers as order activity for semiconductor equipment hit a warm 75 degrees • Capacity Utilization by Wafer Size Semiconductor Analytics Semi Market results from last week: Semiconductor sales blew past 2018 levels with the COVID-19 slump in the rearview mirror. Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Jumped to +21% – Semiconductor Weather1Report: Temperate, Warmer – IC Supply-Demand2Metrics: Tight – Electronics Price Trend: Soaring Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 Chip History Center People: Mark Bohr: It’s 2002… Intel will become the first to crack 90nm, making semiconductors the first nanotechnology industry of scale. People: Paul Magliocco: ATE was undergoing major change in the early 2000s as IC densities on SoC semiconductors had passed the point where they could be economically and effectively tested functionally. The Chip Insider Strategy & Tactics: Forecasting 2021: How to approach it. Equipment & Emerging Markets: Semiconductor Equipment Outlook Semiconductor Stocks • Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 9.0% by MaxLinear • Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 11.6% by Veeco Instruments • EDA Stock Index increased 0.6% to a new yearly high • Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 5.5% by BASF • Hottest Stocks: MaxLinear, ON Semiconductor, Veeco Instruments, ASM International, Amkor, and BASF VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  2. VLSIresearch has moved! We look forward to seeing you at our new office. Our new address is: 2025 Gateway Place, Suite 370 San Jose, CA 95110 Phone/email/web contact information remains the same: Phone: 1.408.453.8844 Web: www.vlsiresearch.com Email: clientservices@vlsiresearch.com VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  3. The Chip Insider®'s Graphics File May 2020 It's been a green spring, but the view is too close Summer is here for equipment suppliers as order activity for semiconductor equipment hit a warm 75 degrees Subcon/Advanced Packaging and Memory recorded the biggest gains while SOC Mobile and Computing hovered at 80 degrees Micron raised its outlook for the current quarter by $400M due to strong pricing trends for NAND and DRAM and improving supply chain conditions. While Micron’s upgrade is a huge positive for the current trends in the memory market, tumbling DRAM spot prices remain a nagging concern and something to watch closely in the second half of the year. VLSI’s Chip Price Performance Index (CPPI) decline is declerating • • • This issue contains the latest forecast. • • VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Call us to access more details Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  4. VLSI's Current Forecast Forecast as of May 2020: Semi Equipment ($B): Sequential Change Capacity Utilization: ICs ($B): Sequential Change IC Units (BU): Sequential Change Electronics ($B) : Sequential Change 2021 88.1 $ 6.5% 95.2% 408.6 $ 15.2% 334.4 12.8% 2,284 $ 13.0% 2019 77.0 $ -8.0% 84.6% 352.3 $ -13.4% 299.4 -6.0% 2,122 $ -2.0% 2020 82.7 $ 7.3% 88.6% 354.8 $ 0.7% 296.4 -1.0% 2,020 $ -4.8% Severe COVID-19 impact in 2H20, recovery 2021 Forecast as of May 2020: Semi Equipment ($B): Sequential Change ICs ($B): Sequential Change IC Units (BU): Sequential Change Electronics ($B) : Sequential Change 2021 88.1 $ 23.8% 408.6 $ 23.5% 334.4 20.9% 2,284 $ 21.2% 2019 77.0 $ -8.0% 352.3 $ -13.4% 299.4 -6.0% 2,122 $ -2.0% 2020 71.2 $ -7.6% 330.8 $ -6.1% 276.6 -7.6% 1,884 $ -11.2% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  5. The Chip Insider®Graphics Capacity Utilization by Wafer Size: – Utilization rates are improving across the board Fab Capacity Utilization by Wafer Size: Chart gives rolling averages for 300mm, 200mm, and smaller silicon wafers VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  6. Semiconductor Analytics Last Week in the Semiconductor Market: Semiconductor sales blew past 2018 levels with the COVID-19 slump in the rearview mirror with the WAHE restructuring fueling demand. The 2Q20 sales Nowcast continued to improve. All segments improved materially. W/W: Week-over-Week sequential growth W/Q: Week-over-Quarter W/Y: Week-over-Year Semiconductor Sales Nowcast: 2Q20/2Q19 Jumped to +21% Semiconductor Weather1Report: 74˚ F Temperate, Warmer IC Supply-Demand2Metrics: Tight Electronics Pricing Trend: Soaring Notebooks, Smartphones, and Consumer Electronics have a seasonal inversion driven by WAHE (Work-at-Home Economy) Thank you for supporting us through this last issue of 2018. Semiconductor Analytics will return January . Overall Semi Sales Status Trend: Peaked: Mar 18 Cold with Dark Clouds: Sep 18 Freezing: Nov 18 Frozen: Jan 19 Freezing: Mar 19 Cold: May 19 Cool: July 19 Temperate: Oct 19 Sunny: Nov 19 Warm: Dec 19 Flu Chills: Feb 28 WAHE Spring: Mar 25 1: Measures Order Activity 2: Measures Pricing Power VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster 6 Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  7. 2020 Semiconductor Market Drivers Coronavirus drove Integrated Circuit sales towards recession and WAHE is pulling it out: • Certainties: – Coronavirus Pandemic infected economies • Unparalleled Supply and Demand shocks to IC sales of <10% and units of ~20% – Governments defibrillating economy – Macroeconomic ‘V’acuum or ‘U’ – not ‘L’ – World’s Economy saved by Semiconductors – WAHE (Work-At-Home Economy) – 7/10nm and 5/7nm demand ramps • Uncertainties: – U.S.-China Trade War – 2020 Elections in U.S. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster 7 Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  8. The Chip Insider® Strategy & Tactics Strategy and Tactics: Forecasting 2021: How to approach it. Summaries: much more investment is needed to get to a new normal. Meanwhile, welcome to the WAHE, the new abnormal that will drive investment. Forecasting 2021: How to approach it. What won’t work, what will, and what it means. Here’s the thing: Using conventional econometric or time-series models based on historical data simply won’t work this time because there are too many outside-the-sample events for a complex model to comprehend. I count five. The first three are powerful forces pulling business to the downside, while the last two are powerful forces pulling business to the upside. None of these have been seen before, which is why conventional forecast models won’t work. All of these are disruptive to a degree that statistical weights and algorithms have little meaning beyond the business models they are constructed around. Simpler, heuristic models have better odds of success. A Personal Thank You: I discovered grief is two-sided… a page in your book of life. On one side is pain and on the other is love. The more love, the greater the pain. It is the pain that obscures our view of the love. Living through grief is about turning the page to see the love. ChipChirps™ VLSI's Semiconductor Analytics: The COVID slump. Facts from the Far Side VLSI's Semiconductor Analytics report: ... ChipChirps™ are short notifications from VLSI’s analysts to alert clients about breaking news and events. They are exclusively available on VLSI’s App for Android and iOS Why the WAHE could be bigger than you think: Using heuristic models, we assess the new demand potential that the Work-At-Home Economy can create for the semiconductor equipment industry. The results are huge: double-digit increases in the short-term and triple- digit increases over the long-term at levels comparable to what China has added to demand. That speaks to the value proposition that “Intelligence is quickness in seeing things as they are” — George Santayana Contact us to get the full report and more VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  9. The Chip Insider® Equipment & Emerging Markets Semiconductor Equipment Outlook • Semi Manufacturing has shown exceptional resiliency • Forecast Scenarios • Changes since last forecast • Semi Equipment Trends • Long-term trends • VLSI’s view VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  10. Semi Manufacturing in the Wake of COVID-19 Has shown exceptional resiliency Semiconductor manufacturing has shown exceptional resilience during COVID-19 Shutdowns. WGDP is collapsing from COVID-19 related shutdowns. – Demand is dropping as populations get stay-in-place or quarantine orders throughout the world. – Overall consumer and industrial demand has fallen substantially. Semiconductor demand has not dropped along with other sectors of the economy. – Automotive and Industrial electronics are an exception to this general trend. The Foundries and IDMs continue to invest in capacity to prepare for: – Substantial 5G ramp. – Accelerating demand for Cloud and Datacenters. – Demand spike in PCs and associated peripherals from working-at-home-economy. The incoming data is very clear VLSI’s original top-down economy-driven COVID-19 down cycle is not materializing in 2020. – Business appears to be solid through 3Q2020. • • • • • VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  11. semiStockWEEK: VLSI's Semiconductor Stock Indices soared this week along with the market. EDA stock index hit a new yearly high for the third week. Semiconductors 9%, Equipment 12%, EDA 1%, Electronic Materials 6%. VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  12. Semiconductor Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Stock Index was led up 9.0% by MaxLinear, ON Semiconductor, and Amkor. IDM +11.2% Foundry & OSAT +9.9% Fabless & Fablite +8.3% Weekly Gains 6/5/2020 Price Change Price Change Forward P/E Forward P/E Semiconductor Stocks Semiconductor Stocks IDM Fab-lite to Fabless Intel 2.2% 13 AMD -1.3% 35 Micron ON Semiconductor 11 16 Analog Devices Broadcom 25 13 12.1% 22.3% 10.3% 8.9% AMD AMDAnalog Devices ADIAmkorAMKR ASE ASXBroadcom AVGOIBMIBM Infineon IFNNY.PK Intel INTCJCET600584.SS Kingpak Technology6238.TWO Micron Technology MU On Semiconductor ONPanasonic PC MagnaChip Semiconductor MXMaxim MXIM MaxLinear MXLMediaTek 2454.TW NVIDIA NVDAQualcomm QCOM Samsung Electronics 005930.KS Silicon Laboratories SLABSkyworks SWKS SMIC SMI STMicroelectronics STM Texas Instruments TXNTSMC TSMUMC UMCWestern Digital WDCXilinx XLNX Samsung Electronics SK hynix STMicroelectronics Western Digital Foundry & OSAT IBM Infineon MagnaChip Semiconductor Maxim MaxLinear 5.7% 14.3% 14.6% 6.2% 22.6% 11 21 16 28 29 9.5% 10.9% 12.5% 9.2% – 22 8 Amkor ASE JCET 16 12 93 MediaTek NVIDIA Panasonic 6.7% 0.5% 1.8% 18.6% 10.3% 2.8% – 36 11 Kingpak Technology SMIC TSMC UMC 0.0% 17.0% 9.7% 10.9% Qualcomm Silicon Laboratories Skyworks Texas Instruments Xilinx 15 29 21 27 28 9.5% 2.3% 14.9% 10.7% 4.6% – 1970 18 15 VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  13. Chip Equipment & Related Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s Semiconductor Equipment Stock Index was led up 11.6% by Veeco Instruments and ASM International. WFE +11.6% Test +11.4% Assembly +10.8% Weekly Gains 0 6/5/2020 Price Change Price Change Forward P/E Forward P/E Equipment Stocks Equipment Stocks Wafer Process: Test: Applied Materials ASM International 7.1% 20.8% 14 20 Advantest Teradyne 11.3% 14.5% – 22 ASML KLA 8.4% 9.4% 32 19 FormFactor 8.5% 22 Applied Materials AMAT Advantest ATEYY ASM International ASMI ASM Lithography ASML ASM Pacific 0522.HK BE Semiconductor BESIY.PK FormFactorFORMKLA KLAC Kulicke & Soffa KLIC Lam Research LRCX Onto Innovation ONTONikon 7731 Teradyne TER Tokyo Electron Limited 8035 Veeco VECO Lam Research Onto Innovation Nikon TEL Veeco Instruments 17 – Assembly: BESI Kulicke & Soffa ASM Pacific Technology 11.4% 12.7% 2.6% 10.9% 21.2% 14.8% 8.9% 8.6% – 15 – – 15 VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  14. Electronic Materials Stocks: Weekly Growth and Forward P/E Ratios by Company VLSI’s EDA Stock Index increased 0.6% to a new yearly high. Weekly Gains EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks EDA Cadence Synopsys Electronic Materials BASF Cabot Microelectronics 6/5/2020 Price Change Price Change 3.5% 10.8% -3.6% -0.7% 7.7% -1.7% EDA & Electronic Materials Stocks DNP DuPont de Nemours JSR Shin-Etsu SOITEC Tokyo Ohka Forward P/E Forward P/E VLSI’s Electronics Materials Stock Index was led up 5.5% by BASF. – 3 – – – – 0.1% 1.1% 34 30 BASF BASFY Cadence CNDS DNP 7912 JSR 4185 SOI.PA Synopsys SNPS Cabot Microelectronics CCMP DuPont DD Shin-Etsu 4063 SOITEC Tokyo Ohka 4186 3 18.5% 9.6% 23 VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

  15. Companies Companies Max Growth Weekly Growth VLSI’s Indices of Chip Industry Stocks Min Growth Range of S&P 500 S&P 500 The Prior Week's Close Growth Growth Down Up Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks Semi Stocks Equipment Stocks Materials Stocks EDA Stocks 01-Nov-19 08-Nov-19 15-Nov-19 22-Nov-19 29-Nov-19 06-Dec-19 13-Dec-19 20-Dec-19 27-Dec-19 03-Jan-20 10-Jan-20 17-Jan-20 24-Jan-20 31-Jan-20 07-Feb-20 14-Feb-20 21-Feb-20 28-Feb-20 06-Mar-20 13-Mar-20 20-Mar-20 27-Mar-20 03-Apr-20 10-Apr-20 17-Apr-20 24-Apr-20 01-May-20 08-May-20 15-May-20 22-May-20 29-May-20 05-Jun-20 90.3 91.7 92.0 90.0 90.9 92.6 96.7 99.2 100.0 100.3 101.5 104.7 106.1 98.4 102.5 106.5 103.7 93.1 91.8 81.1 69.6 78.3 77.1 85.6 89.1 88.7 89.1 94.8 91.4 95.1 97.4 106.2 92.6 94.9 97.0 92.0 93.7 94.7 98.0 99.9 100.0 100.2 100.9 104.8 105.1 98.4 101.3 106.6 99.3 90.4 91.0 78.3 65.2 78.7 73.4 84.0 88.4 86.1 83.9 91.9 87.1 89.8 91.0 101.6 101.2 103.2 101.5 98.7 96.7 95.5 100.0 100.1 100.0 98.9 99.2 101.0 100.5 96.0 100.4 101.0 98.1 85.5 84.8 71.0 67.0 76.6 72.6 82.6 82.7 82.5 85.0 88.4 86.8 89.7 94.9 100.1 94.8 96.1 97.6 95.9 100.1 95.5 96.9 99.6 100.0 100.5 104.7 106.4 107.8 103.8 107.2 114.2 106.4 96.2 95.1 90.7 78.4 88.7 89.9 99.7 111.3 111.9 107.5 115.9 115.1 122.3 129.5 130.3 2.4% 1.5% 0.4% -2.2% 1.0% 1.8% 4.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 3.2% 1.3% -7.3% 4.2% 3.9% -2.6% -10.2% -1.5% -11.6% -14.2% 12.6% -1.6% 11.1% 4.0% -0.4% 0.5% 6.4% -3.6% 4.0% 2.4% 9.0% 0.2% 2.5% 2.1% -5.1% 1.8% 1.1% 3.5% 1.9% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 3.9% 0.3% -6.3% 2.9% 5.3% -6.9% -8.9% 0.6% -13.9% -16.7% 20.6% -6.7% 14.5% 5.2% -2.6% -2.6% 9.6% -5.3% 3.1% 1.4% 11.6% 1.3% 1.9% -1.6% -2.8% -2.0% -1.2% 4.7% 0.1% -0.1% -1.1% 0.2% 1.8% -0.5% -4.5% 4.6% 0.6% -2.8% -12.9% -0.7% -16.3% -5.7% 14.4% -5.3% 13.8% 0.2% -0.2% 3.1% 3.9% -1.8% 3.3% 5.8% 5.5% -0.1% 1.3% 1.6% -1.8% 4.4% -4.6% 1.5% 2.7% 0.4% 0.5% 4.2% 1.7% 1.3% -3.8% 3.3% 6.5% -6.9% -9.5% -1.2% -4.6% -13.6% 13.1% 1.4% 10.9% 11.7% 0.6% -4.0% 7.8% -0.7% 6.3% 5.9% 0.6% 36 37 31 7 37 33 48 39 29 23 32 45 29 3 45 47 6 0 18 0 3 52 14 54 41 17 27 52 10 42 43 50 9.9% 12.5% 10.8% 5.7% 5.0% 8.2% 10.7% 12.5% 5.9% 9.5% 7.2% 19.1% 14.9% 2.2% 21.4% 27.5% 4.5% -0.8% 7.9% -2.1% 15.3% 36.1% 17.4% 38.2% 17.0% 9.2% 19.1% 31.0% 16.8% 13.5% 14.6% 22.6% -15 -14 -20 -44 -14 -19 -3 -13 -23 -24 -22 -10 -25 -51 -10 -8 -49 -55 -35 -55 -52 -3 -41 -1 -10 -37 -28 -3 -45 -12 -12 -4 -12.1% -4.2% -5.0% -17.7% -15.0% -4.8% -1.4% -8.4% 2.7% -3.4% -4.8% -3.8% -10.8% -17.7% -11.7% -10.0% -17.1% -21.3% -11.0% -26.6% -28.9% -11.7% -15.1% -2.3% -6.1% -9.8% -11.9% -2.4% -21.1% -11.7% -3.2% -3.6% 22.0% 16.7% 15.8% 23.4% 20.0% 13.0% 12.1% 20.9% 8.6% 12.9% 12.0% 22.9% 25.7% 19.9% 33.1% 37.5% 21.6% 20.5% 18.9% 24.5% 44.2% 47.8% 32.5% 40.5% 23.1% 19.0% 31.0% 33.4% 37.9% 25.2% 17.8% 26.2% 94.7 95.5 96.3 96.0 96.9 97.1 97.8 99.4 100.0 99.8 100.8 102.8 101.7 99.5 102.7 104.3 103.0 91.2 91.7 83.7 71.1 78.4 76.8 86.1 88.7 87.6 87.4 90.4 88.4 91.2 94.0 98.6 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% -0.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% -0.2% 0.9% 2.0% -1.0% -2.1% 3.2% 1.6% -1.3% -11.5% 0.6% -8.8% -15.0% 10.3% -2.1% 12.1% 3.0% -1.3% -0.2% 3.5% -2.3% 3.2% 3.0% 4.9% VLSIresearch … intelligence to make better decisions faster Copyright © 2020 VLSI Research Inc. All rights reserved. Distribution rights contained in T&Cs.

More Related