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Jeff Hawkins 1 , Peter Black 2 , Pat Harr 3 , and Russ Elsberry 3

Jeff Hawkins 1 , Peter Black 2 , Pat Harr 3 , and Russ Elsberry 3 Organizations: 1 Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943 2 Science Applications International Inc., (SAIC), Monterey, CA 93940 3 Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93940 Sponsor:

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Jeff Hawkins 1 , Peter Black 2 , Pat Harr 3 , and Russ Elsberry 3

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  1. Jeff Hawkins1, Peter Black2, Pat Harr3, and Russ Elsberry3 Organizations: 1Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943 2Science Applications International Inc., (SAIC), Monterey, CA 93940 3Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, CA 93940 Sponsor: Office of Naval Research (ONR) Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference March 2, 2010

  2. Genesis Flight Status: • Goal: Determine if NHC needs to start advisories! • Does low level circulation center exist? • Typically done at low levels (1,500’) • Used by both NOAA P-3s and AF WC-130J planes • Incorporate high density flight level observations

  3. Air Force WC-130J Other Genesis Flight Options?WC-130J Capabilities • Ceiling: 300 mb, i.e. 9.7 km (31K ft) altitude • (after 2.5-hr transit) • Endurance: 12-hour • GPS sonde deployment • AXBT deployment (98% success rate) • SFMR surface wind speeds/rainrate • Real-time HDOB, 1-sec resolution recorded • Radar Video Recording (tilt radar)

  4. Benefits of 30,000’ Invests • Dropsondes enable 3-D wind vector profiling: • - Is there a low level circulation center (LLCC)? • - Is the LLCC tilted with height? • - Is the “center” aloft disconnected with the LLCC? • - Are the “centers” getting better aligned? - Models have difficulty extending surface data aloft - 3-D measurements needed to create inner-core - 3-D obs needed to fortify “bogus vortex” if used - Shear details crucial to both track and intensityforecast

  5. Benefits of 30,000’ Invests • AXBTs (Airborne Expendable Bathythermographs): • - Map 3-D ocean thermal structure, • - Monitor ocean fronts, eddies, OHC, mixed layer, • - Update altimeter/ocean model thermal structures • Crucial in “Coupled” TC model forecasting progress • - Mesoscale ocean structure can be complex • - Altimeters have issues with shallow water (shelf) Faster speeds and thus longer flight tracks Safer for crews and planes

  6. Zig-Zag Square Spiral Racetrack Bow-Tie • ITOP/TCS-08 High Altitude Invests • High altitude WC-130J flights • - 27,000 – 31,000’ during entire storm flight pattern • - square spiral, lawn mower, etc

  7. Surface and mid-level circulation centers are well displaced

  8. North line 2nd line SE center TCS 025 Aug 27-28, 2008 18Z - 07Z NW and W shear aloft brings dry air into system that would NOT be mapped with low-level invest

  9. High altitude “invests” required to map genesis 3-D environment

  10. 400 mb Winds 400 mb Winds Wind Field Evolution With Height: ITOP Sept 13, 2010

  11. 700 mb Winds 700 mb Winds 700 mb Winds Wind Field Evolution With Height: ITOP Sept 13, 2010

  12. Surface Winds Surface Winds Wind Field Evolution With Height: ITOP Sept 13, 2010 400 mb Winds Bottom up development: Closed circulation @ 400 mb

  13. Summary (Status Quo): Negates advancements in aircraft “observing system” - High altitude dropsonde, AXBT, and SFMR obs - Atmosphere/ocean 3-D structure poorly sampled - Can we accurately map LLCCs from 30,000’? - Do NWP data assimilation/forecasts efforts suffer? How can we facilitate WC-130J invest “demo” to test these hypotheses? High altitude Imaging Wind & Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP)?

  14. Summary Comparison: 1500’ Invest30,000’ Invest LLCC specification LLCC via dropsonde/SFMR 3-D winds/temp/moisture- Favorable? NWP assimilation data sets Coupled ocean models - AXBTs Need a WC-130J invest “demo” to test these hypotheses?

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