World Climate Research Programme 2006, 2007 and beyond

1. World Climate Research Programme 2006, 2007 and beyond Valery Detemmerman Joint Planning Staff World Climate Research Programme

2. 2006 – an interesting year • Many activities, significant progress • Ocean activities (reported by others) • Regional activities, e.g. AMMA, La Plata Basin • IPCC input, archive, regional analyses • Input to SBSTA, UNFCC • New communications strategy

3. WCRP Strategic Framework 2005-2015 • Facilitate analysis and prediction…for use in….applications of direct ..value to society • How to implement? • Cross-cutting activities • Networking survey

4. JSC-approved cross cuts • Anthropogenic climate change (with IGBP) • Atmospheric chemistry and climate • Seasonal prediction • Decadal predictability • Monsoons • Climate and its extremes • International Polar Year

5. New way of doing business • WCRP core projects to manage cross cuts • Shared activities with IGBP • Reduced central resources • ICSU review

6. CLIVAR “future look” • SSG 14 legacy discussions • Workshop/conf series to establish state of art and future needs • Barcelona, June07 – seasonal prediction • Hamburg Aug 07 – natural modes of variabilty and ACC • Manage cross cuts – extremes & monsoons with GEWEX; decadal predictability • SSG 15 – Geneva, Sept07, decide how to implement

7. CLIVAR presentation to JSC-28A proposed new way of doing business Tim Palmer, Howard Cattle, and Jim Hurrell

8. CLIVAR SSG-14 - Buenos Aires, April 2006 • Sought development of CLIVAR “Forward Look” against science themes of ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans in Climate, Global Modeling & Prediction. • Was organized around a series of mini-assessments of current status of each themes. • Background of sponsor/context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP

9. CLIVAR“Forward Look” - key aims by 2013 • Establish basis for seamless prediction with practical demonstrations of utility. • Significant reduction in systematic model errors/biases for seasonal prediction across the globe leading to systematic improvements in prediction skill. • Progressive transition of monsoon prediction systems from research or experimental status to operational systems, with increased skill and relevance to applications. • Establish experimental decadal prediction using initialization-base approaches as a key legacy of CLIVAR • Improved initialization procedures for predictive models across all timescales • With OOPC, evaluate the current state and development vector of the global ocean observing system aiming for a system which is fully sustained and providing key inputs to prediction services

10. CLIVAR“Forward Look” - key aims by 2013 • Development of consistent ocean synthesis/reanalysis datasets using ocean data assimilation techniques • Sustained monitoring of the MOC; improved understanding of the mechanisms of MOC variability and climate system impacts • Evaluation of the role of modes of variability in ACC and how climate change impacts them, providing significant input to climate assessments • Systematic development of Earth System models (through WGCM/IGBP AIMES) • Evaluation of the importance of new feedbacks in climate change predictions with Earth System models through WGCM/IGBP AIMES

11. Watch this space Thank you