Observational and Modeling Studies of Climate Variability – Investigating the “C” in CRM

1. Observational and Modeling Studies of Climate Variability – Investigating the “C” in CRM Bradfield Lyon International Research Institute for Climate and Society February 27, 2007

2. The Role of Climate Observations... Dilley et al., 2005, World Bank, Disaster Risk Management Series No. 5

3. Drought Hazard: Exposure and Relief in Sri Lanka (with Lareef Zubair, Vidhura Ralapanawe and Zeenas Yahiya) Drought “Risk” 1960-2000 Relative Drought Occurrence Lyon et al., GRL, in Review

4. Reliability of Rockland Water System – Demand and Supply Lyon et al., 2005, JAWRA

5. Papers since 2004... Lyon, B., and S.J. Camargo, 2007: ENSO Evolution: Time-Varying Effects on Seasonal Rainfall and Typhoon Activity in the Philippines. Journal of Climate (in preparation). Lyon, B., L. Zubair, V. Ralapanawe, and Z. Yahiya, 2006: Fine-scale evaluation of drought hazard for tropical climates: Case study in Sri Lanka. Geophysical Research Letters (in review PDF). Lyon, B., and S.J. Mason, 2006: The 1997-98 Summer Rainfall Season in Southern Africa Part I: Observations. Journal of Climate (in press PDF). Lyon, B., H. Cristi, E.R. Verceles, F.D. Hilario, and R. Abastillas, 2006: Seasonal Reversal of the ENSO Rainfall Signal in the Philippines. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L24710, doi:10.1029/2006GL028182. PDF Lyon, B., 2006: Robustness of the influence of El Niño on the spatial extent of tropical drought. Advances in Geosciences, 6, 207–209. PDF Lyon, B., and A.G. Barnston, 2005: ENSO and the Spatial Extent of Interannual Precipitation Extremes in Tropical Land Areas. Journal of Climate, 18, 5095–5109. PDF Lyon, B., N. Christie-Blick, and Y. Gluzberg, 2005: Water Shortages, Development, and Drought in Rockland County NY. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41, Issue 6, 1457-1469. Lyon, B., 2004: The strength of El Niño and the spatial extent of tropical drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L21204. PDF

6. The Local Manifestation of Large-Scale (ENSO) Forcing

7. The 1997-98 Rainfall Season in Southern Africa Work with Simon Mason (with input from Willem Landman, Chris Reason, Tony Barnston, Lisa Goddard) Part I – Departures in the anomalous atmospheric circulation and Ocean conditions in 1997-98 relative to past El Nino events (back to 1950). In press, J. Climate Part II – Behavior of model simulations (3 AGCMs) and coupled model runs (3 models). Did they capture the “anomalous behavior of the anomalies” for southern Africa for this ENSO event? Implications for future ENSOs? J. Climate (in prep.) Another talk for another day.... (Dave D. has signed me up for spring)

8. Diagnostic Climate Studies for Climate Risk Management in the Philippines • Work in collaboration with the Climate Information, Monitoring and • Prediction Center (CLIMPC) group at the Philippines Atmospheric, • Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA). • IRI and PAGASA working along with the National Water Resources Board • (NWRB), National Irrigation Administration, National Power Corporation, • UP Los Baños,.... • Climate work also involves capacity building efforts - statistical (CPT, HMM) • and dynamical (RegCM) downscaling, climate diagnostics, development of • real time climate monitoring analyses. • Other IRI scientists involved – Casey Brown, Joshua Qian, Andy Robertson, • Suzana Camargo, Simon Mason, Mike Bell, Arthur Greene, Lisa Goddard,...

9. Angat Reservoir Reservoir at near-capacity ...and during the El Niño of 1997-98 Photos courtesy of Manila Water Supply Service (MWSS)

10. Angat Reservoir - Philippines • The Angat watershed is 568 km2 in area • Supplies about 97% of water for Metro Manila • Irrigates about 30,000 hectares of farmlands • Generates a maximum power of 246 MW • Serves as flood control facility during rainy season

11. SW NE (31%) (46%)

12. ENSO Signal in Seasonal Rainfall in the Philippines Composite Anomalies, 10 La Niña, 10 El Niño events (1950-2002) OND La Niña OND El Niño Data: UEA, CRU

13. 10 El Niño Composite Rainfall Anomalies Data: University of East Anglia JAS OND 10 La Niña JAS OND “DRY” “WET” Lyon et al., 2006, GRL “DRY” “WET”

14. ENSO Manifestation in Southeast Asia During JAS (0) Canonical Correlation ≈ 0.8

15. NWRB Angat Water Level Scenario: 2006-2007 2007 2006 Slide Courtesy of Casey Brown

16. El Niño: Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Oct-Nov-Dec (5 El Niño events 1979-2003) L H L H DRYWET Data: CMAP, Reanalysis

17. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Jul-Aug-Sep L L JJA

18. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Aug-Sep-Oct L H H L JJA JAS

19. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Sep-Oct-Nov L H H L

20. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Oct-Nov-Dec L H L H

21. Annual Cycle of Angat Average Inflows (Bars) and Relative Predictability (Lines) Breaking the spring “barrier” “Predictability” Nino3.4 Corr. Inflow (MCM)

22. Composite 850 hPa Streamfunction for El Niño Mar (+1) Jun (+1) H H L H H H L

23. Changes in Typhoon Activity during ENSO Evolution This work in collaboration with S.J. Camargo... Average Number of TCs per Month 1 Super Typhoon DURIAN (26 NOV-05 DEC) J F M A M J J A SO N D

24. Tropical Cyclone Track Density Differences El Niño – La Niña JAS more JAS TCs fewer El Niño El Niño – La Niña OND more OND TCs fewer Data: JTWC Lyon and Camargo, (s.t.b.s.)

25. Using the Genesis Potential Index as a Diagnostic Western North Pacific Climo. GP Emanuel and Nolan (2004); Camargo, Emanuel & Sobel (2007)

26. GP Composite Differences: El Niño – La Niña JAS El Niño – La Niña OND El Niño – La Niña Lyon and Camargo (s.t.b.s)

27. GP Anomaly Differences Using All Variables greater El Niño JAS– OND potential less La Niña JAS– OND greater potential less Lyon and Camargo, (s.t.b.s.)

28. GP: Only RH600 Varying, all other terms climatology dry JAS El Niño – La Niña humid OND El Niño – La Niña dry Lyon and Camargo, (s.t.b.s.)

29. Composite JAS Anomalous Moisture Flux (10 Events) JAS El Niño kg/kg ms-1 x 102 JAS La Niña Lyon and Camargo, (s.t.b.s.)

30. Working in Collaboration with PAGASA ... sharing balut!

31. Future Work: Observational and Modeling Studies • A deeper physical understanding of regional climate variations on SI • to longer time scales (Philippines, Southern Africa, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, • Mexico) particularly as they map onto CRM objectives. • Further development of collaborations in this enterprise with groups • outside the IRI (PAGASA, HMS, CDC, etc.). • Obtaining funding for these activities (GRIP, DRICOMP, NSF, etc.) Drought • Impacts are across sectors providing opportunities for multi-disciplinary • research. Increasing interest in the broader community on the topic. • Diagnostic studies of episodic events and in the context of climate • change (e.g., cross-hazard with extreme temperatures).

32. Thank You Slide: Columbia University, College of Dental Medicine

36. ENSO and Tropical Drought – Spatial Extent 1st EOF Lyon, 2004, GRL Lyon and Barnston, 2005, J. Climate

37. The principal river, Angat River, originates from the western flank of the Sierra Madre Mountains. It then cuts through the mountainous terrain in a westerly direction to the dam site. The elevation within the watershed rises to a maximum of 1,115 meters at the Sierra Madre Mountain range and is lowest at the dam site at 100 meters. It has three major tributaries, namely, the Talaguio, Catmon and Matulid Rivers. The Angat Watershed has a moderate to intensive forest cover and has a drainage area of about 568 square kilometers, which receives an average annual rainfall of about 4,200 millimeters.The Angat Dam is a rockfill dam with a spillway equipped with three gates at a spilling level of 219 meters. Its storage capacity is about 850 million cubic meters. Water supply to the MWSS is released through five auxiliary turbines where it is diverted to the two tunnels going to the Ipo Dam.

38. CMAP & 850 hPa Reanalysis Relative Vorticity JAS Average (1979 - 2000) eq. Composite Anomalies (Events after 1979) JAS La Niña Anomaly JAS El Niño Anomaly eq.

40. r = 0.87

41. Climatological PRCP, Winds & Ψ850 H JAS Zonal Wind – Philippines Avg. H JAS H J F M A M J J A S O N D OND Data: CMAP, Reanalysis

42. Climatology November July

43. Climatological TC Track Density (1950-2004) Average Number of TCs per Month 1 J F M A M J J A SO N D Figures: S.J. Camargo Super Typhoon DURIAN (26 NOV-05 DEC)

44. What is the local manifestation of large-scale forcing? (Certainly ENSO is playing a role....)

45. El Niño: Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Oct-Nov-Dec (5 El Niño events 1979-2003) L H L H DRYWET Data: CMAP, Reanalysis

46. CMAP & 850 hPa Reanalysis Relative Vorticity JAS Average (1979 - 2000) eq. Composite Anomalies (Events after 1979) JAS La Niña Anomaly JAS El Niño Anomaly eq.

47. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Jul-Aug-Sep L L JJA

48. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Aug-Sep-Oct L H H L JJA JAS

49. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Sep-Oct-Nov L H H L

50. Composite Ψ850 and PRCP Anomalies Oct-Nov-Dec L H L H