Risk Characterization Branch

1. Risk Characterization Branch Anne Fairbrother Branch Chief August 2003

2. Branch Mission Determine the effects of anthropogenic stressors such as pesticides on plant communities and wildlife populations, and on the structure, function and quality of terrestrial habitats that support wildlife

3. Pesticides & Terrestrial Habitats Pesticides • Chemical herbicides • GM crops Terrestrial Habitats • Spatially explicit models for wildlife populations • Chemical insecticides • Other stressors • Terrestrial habitat and ecosystem models

4. Pesticide Project WED Research Approach WED Research Objectives WED Research Goals ORD Multi-Year Plan OPP, OPPT Research Needs Develop Molecular Methods Develop molecular methods to asses gene flow Assess ecological effects of exposure to transgenic genes Determine Ecological Effects of Gene Flow from Transgenic Crops 1. Assess Risks From Transgenic Crops Conduct Gene Flow Studies Conduct Greenhouse/ Growth Chamber/Field Ecological Studies LTG 3 Develop Scientific Basis to Reduce Risks 2. Improve Methods for Spatially Explicit Risk Assessments Provide Inputs for Prototype Model Hold International Workshop Identify Uncertainty and Knowledge Gaps Develop Spatially Explicit Risk Assessment Model Provide web-based tool for assessment activities Evaluate Spatial Databases, GIS Platform Develop Regional Analysis and Interpretation Tools Develop Probabilistic Systems Modeling Methods and Protocols 3. Develop New Methods for Gathering Herbicide Dose-Response Data LTG 4 Develop Information on Novel New Hazards Conduct case Studies Develop Regionally Based Species Selection Process Improve plant selection process Improve plant test guidelines Provide Input to Eco-system Response Tests Develop Mode of Action Studies / Molecular Biology Tools Determine Effects of Chemical Herbicides on Terrestrial Plants Develop Tests for Reproductive / Developmental Endpoints 4. Investigate Potential Effects of High Priority Hazards Conduct Greenhouse/ Field Studies Design ecological, molecular effects studies

5. Chemical Herbicides Pesticideschemical herbicides • EPA registers all pesticides for specific uses • Responsible for determining potential risk to nontarget plants • Current Tier 1 and 2 tests use 10 different crop plants • No non-crop plants are required • WED/RCB working with EFED to update the requirements for plant testing and risk assessment

6. Chemical Herbicides Chemical Herbicidesregional approach to Ecological Risk Assessment • Web-based GIS support • Crop: plant community – wind – other risk factors • Locally-relevant test species • Bioassay development • Spatially explicit probabilistic risk methods

7. Chemical Herbicides Crop Location Native Plants Herbicide Use Wind Patterns

8. Chemical Herbicides Current Test Species • Corn • Soybean • Carrot • Onion • Beet • Sugar beet • Tomato • Cucumber • Lettuce • Cabbage • Oat • Perennial ryegrass Proposed Test Species • Crops • Forbs • Wood plants • Grasses Determined from GIS analysis of crop location plus risk factors

9. Chemical Herbicides Test Protocols • Sensitive endpoints • especially reproduction • Optimal growth conditions • Perennial species life cycle tests

10. GM Crops & Gene Flow • Use of GM crops rapidly increasing in past 5 years • Growing concerns about potential ecol. risks of gene flow from crops to resident species • Little data and no established methods to assess these risks

11. Evaluating Gene Flow from GM Crops

12. Gene Flow Example

13. GM Crops & Gene Flow Approach • Field study • Round-up resistant bent grass • Pollen flow • Seed dispersal

14. GM Crops & Gene Flow Approach • Field study • Round-up resistant bent grass • Pollen flow • Seed dispersal • Microcosms • Artificial communities • Bent grass and canola • Fitness effects of transgene transfer

15. GM Crops & Gene Flowapproach • Field study • Round-up resistant bent grass • Pollen flow • Seed dispersal • Microcosms • Artificial communities • Bent grass and canola • Fitness effects of transgene transfer • Greenhouse & lab • Gene transfer possibility • Gene expression • Fitness effects

16. Terrestrial Habitats

17. Spatially Explicit Wildlife Models • Integrate direct and indirect effects of pesticides • Population level endpoints • Probabilistic risk assessments

18. PATCHProgram to Assist Tracking Critical Habitat • Originally developed to assess effects of amount of habitat change • Alternative futures project • Adapting model to include change in habitat quality • Insecticide applications

19. PATCHProgram to Assist Tracking Critical Habitat • Model development • Hypothetical landscapes • Empirical study • Bluebirds in Willamette Valley • Life history database development • Reproduction, mortality, dispersal rates for birds

20. Dynamic Landscapes Modeling Stressor Effects on Habitat & Wildlife in a Managed Forest Landscape

21. Dynamic Landscapes Multiple, Interacting Stessors Biogeochemistry Model (GEM) Plant Community Model (FORCLIM) Wildlife Model (PATCH) Tree growth model (TREGRO) Habitat Models Population Changes

22. GEMGeneral Ecosystem Model • Biogeochemistry • N – C - water • Predicts amount of biomass production under differing environmental scenarios • Predicts C and N output to streams & soil retention

23. TREGRO & FORCLIM • TREGRO • Physiologically based model to predict individual tree growth as a function of stress • FORCLIM • Forest stand model to predict changes in species composition as a function of stress to individual trees

24. Integrated Models for Predicting Wildlife Effects

25. BLM’s Mission is Critical