Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch, Code 322

1. Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch,Code 322 Name: Tony DiVenti Title: Chief Branch: Reliability and Risk Analysis Tel: (301) 286-6507 Email: Anthony.J.DiVenti@nasa.gov

2. Overview Define what is meant by Reliability, Maintainability, and Risk Analysis from a GSFC perspective Go over our Annual Operating Agreement with HQ Discuss the roles/responsibilities of our Reliability & Maintainability (R&M) engineers Provides examples of typical R&M analyses methodologies Define what RM means at GSFC Discuss roles/responsibilities of our Integrated Risk Manager. Summarize Highlight challenges moving forward

3. What is Reliability and Risk Analyses? Safety Quality Reliability Mission Success – Meeting all mission specifications, requirements, objectives. Quality – “Fitness for use” or “Conforming to specification or requirements” Safety – Ensuring potential conditions/faults will not propagate into hazardous or catastrophic events • Reliability – “The probability of a system working successfully for a specified time under stated environmental conditions” –or- “Quality over time” • Maintainability – “Probability of restoring function after failure” • Availability – “Probability of a system is operational at a given time” • Risk – “The possibility of a problem” or “Likelihood, Scenario, Impact”

4. What is the difference between Safety Reliability at GSFC? Launch Pre - Orbit Insertion Post - Orbit Insertion SAFETY RELIABILITY Challenger Ariane V Mishaps, Catastrophic Events Successful, Safe, Reliable, Qualified “The primary focus of Reliability and Risk Analysis is to design out or mitigate potential problems/barriers to mission success (and safety) before they can occur“

5. 2012 Annual Operating Agreement • The Reliability and Risk Analysis Branch (RRAB) assists GSFC missions in implementing an effective risk assessment and reliability program for spacecraft, instrument, ground, and launch vehicle systems. Specific activities include: • Tailoring project requirements to the mission risk profile per, NPR 8705.4 Risk Classification for NAS A Payloads for NASA Missions (Note: Other important NPDs/NPRs include NPD 8720.1, NPR 8705.5A, and NPR 8715.3) • Ensuring NPR 8000.4 Risk Management requirements are clearly flowed down and defined in GSFC procedures and/or process • Providing support to NASA GSFC projects and institutional organizations in the development and maintenance of Risk Management (RM) processes. Support activities may include training, risk management meeting facilitation, integrated risk management consultation, independent assessments, etc. • Performing System Risk Assessments and Reliability/Maintainability analyses such as: Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), Failure Mode and Effects Analyses (FMEA) & Critical Item List (CIL) development, modeling & trade studies, Worst Case Analysis (WCA), Parts Stress & Derating Analysis, and other analyses that support the mission’s engineering and decision making functions. • Providing specific systems expertise to ensure that reliability, availability, and maintainability factors (as required) are designed and integrated into GSFC systems. Participate in reviews as required. • Review and assess operating and manufacturing processes/procedures. Provide support during the development & test of mission hardware & software (e.g. data/trending analysis, root cause and corrective action analysis). • Maintain and analyze on-orbit anomaly data & heritage information to support on-orbit performance assessments for current and future missions. • The Branch provides technical experts, engineers, and Chief SMA Officers (CSOs) to support projects, independent reviews, and assessments.

6. Reliability and Risk Analyses Activities over the Program/Project Life Cycle • Pre Phase A/ Phase A • Proposal Support • Develop resource/ funding plans • Contract, SOW, MAR, RPP, RMP Development • Preliminary Technology and Requirement Analysis • Data Collection • Preliminary Concept feasibility and Life Cycle Trade Studies • Risk Assessments • Risk Management Support • Phase B/ Phase C/ Phase D • Finalize conversion of reliability performance requirements from mission needs • Engineering Analysis • Surveillance • Verification of improvements previously identified through FMEA, FTA, etc. • Review and assess applicable test data • Risk Assessments (FRBs, MRBs, EOs) • Risk Management Support • Phase E • Lessons Learned/Data Collection from On-Orbit Experience • Mission Extension/De-Orbit Reliability analysis and Risk Assessments • Risk Management Support

7. Analysis Examples An example of a trade study

8. Analysis Examples Sample FMEA worksheet

9. Analysis Examples Section of an FTA from the STEREO Project AND Gate and also Top Gate OR Gate Transfer Gate Basic Event Repeated Basic Event

10. Analysis Examples Example from the GLAST/ACD Limited Life Item Analysis

11. Analysis Example An a excerpted example of an Event Tree from GLAST Launch Vehicle separation risk assessment

12. Risk Management • GSFC’s Integrated Risk Manager position resides in Code 322/300 to: • Serves as a process owner for Risk Management (10,000 ft level) • Works with Code 100 and the other directorates to flow down and implement Agency risk management policies/requirements on center as applicable • Provides expert consultation, training, and support to GSFC organizations as needed • Significant changes in the latest NPR 8000.4 Risk Management (RM)document: • - Introduces the concept of risk-informed decision making (RIDM) • - Increasing reliance on performance measures & quantitative techniques • - Integrating RIDM & CRM at all levels of the agency, including both Institutional and Project RM • - Emphasizing the triplet concept of risk (e.g., likelihood, impact, scenario)

13. Risk Management RIDM + CRM = Risk Management (RM)

14. 5 4 3 Likelihood 2 Consequence 1 2 3 4 5 1 HIGH RISKS MODERATE RISKS LOW RISKS GSFC-STD-0002: Risk Reporting

15. In Summary Specific Indirect Duties (excluding typical supervisory duties): • Capabilities Development • Tool/ Process Development and • Documentation • Procedure Development • Training • Education • RTOP Development • Integrated Risk Management • Process owner for Risk Management • Works with Code 100 and other Directorate to implement risk management processes • Provide expert consultation and training • Strategic Planning/Initiative Development • HQ, Agency, Industry Partner, and Center Collaborations • Internal/External Assessments & Surveys • (based on needs and requirements) • Benchmark “Best in Class” activities • Gap and SWOT analysis • Strategic Plan Development Specific Direct Duties (in-house and out-of-house development efforts): • Reliability Requirements Planning: • Proposal • Contract • SOW • Mission Assurance Requirement (MAR) • Reliability Program Planning (RPP)* • Data Collection • Test Planning and Assessment • *includes PRA Planning • Engineering Assessments/Analyses: • Reliability Modeling, Simulation, and Predictions • Failure Modes &Effects Analyses (FMECA/FMEA) • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) • Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) • Trade Studies/Evaluations • Limited-Life Analysis • Data/Trending/Inference Analysis • Parts Stress and Derating Analysis • Worst Case Analysis • Fault Management • Consultation: • Training • Failure Investigations/Root Cause Analysis • Problem and/or risk resolution • Surveillance: • Internal and external surveys/audits • Analyses/assessment report approval • Reviews (e.g., Peer, Mishap Investigation, etc.) • Reliability and PRA working group leadership • Technical Interchange Meetings (TIMs)

16. On-going Challenges • Data Collection and Analysis Process • Capture data from closed loop Problem Reports (PRs)/Problem Failure Reports (PFRs)/On-Orbit Anomaly Reporting systems to support future reliability analysis and risk assessments • Characterize lessons learned, heritage information, and on-orbit history in a way that is most useful in early concept and design activities • Needs to be user/stakeholder friendly (e.g., problem reports can not be burdensome) • Clearer requirements flow-down • Consistent flow-down of NPDs and NPRs to in-house and out-of-house development efforts • Fill in missing links (STDs, MARs, GPRs, PGs, WIs, etc.) • Clearer tie-in with NRP 7120 and Systems Engineering processes • S/W Reliability • Need to establish clear guidance and direction for the center • Upfront in-direct funding, or project sponsored direct funding, needed to help facilitate these efforts