Chapters 6 – Participation

1. Chapters 6 – Participation I. Public Opinion – aggregate of attitudes and opinions of individuals on a significant issue. A. Survey research. Is public opinion a reliable guide for lawmaking? Problems: • Public knowledge of politics (next slide) • “Halo Effect” – people will lie in accordance with socially acceptable answers. 3. Inconsistencies – e.g. lower taxes and more spending 4. Instability – different responses at different times 5. Salience – people concentrate on a handful of issues considered important in their own lives.

3. II. Political Socialization – process by which individuals obtain their beliefs about political values, beliefs and opinions. A. Sources of socialization: • Family – children usually take on their parents party identification. *If parents are different, which one? • School – • Civic norms: salute the flag, civics, “good citizenship” values • How to think – schools may teach students that truth evaluations based on faith or revelation, for instance, are unnecessary or inappropriate to knowing or understanding the world correctly (science gives us Truth; religion or faith is about values/opinions). Result? Students are socialized into a way of thinking that relativizes and relegates faith to the private/personal sphere; secular authorities permitted in public sphere. • Worldviews – one’s basic beliefs about ultimate reality, truth and knowledge, ethics, and origins/destiny shapes their political attitudes. • Generational effects – historical events may shape political opinion. (great depression).

4. Media influence – tells us what to think about III. Ideology and Opinion • Can we predict political opinion based upon self-described ideologies? For the most part, YES. IV. Demographics and Opinion A. Gender • Women appear to be more passive on issues involving use of force (i.e. war, death penalty, gun control). Women do not have significantly different opinions on non-force issues like abortion and domestic gender roles. • Gender Gap: Women = more likely to be Democratic (as of 80s). (Next Slide) B. Religion: Protestants and Catholics more likely to identify as moderates or conservatives than liberals; Jews more likely to identify as liberals. But Protestant Evangelicals are the most supportive voting block for Republicans.

7. IV. Individual Participation in Politics A. Securing the right to vote (suffrage) 1. Elimination of Property Qualifications (1800-1840) 2. Fifteenth Amendment (1870) – black male suffrage 3. Continued denial of voting rights (1870-1964) a. “white primary” – Democratic party primary elections in many southern counties in the early part of the twentieth century that excluded black people from voting. b. Literacy tests – all were required to pass (which few people could) difficult tests involving complex legal documents. 4. Civil Rights Act/VRA (1964-65) – abolished unequal registration requirements 5. 24th amendment – abolished poll taxes (a price to get registered 6. 19th amendment – women suffrage (1920) 7. 26th amendment (1971) – eighteen year old suffrage or voting rights 8. National Voter Registration act (1993) – “Moter voter” – can register when you get your drivers license.

8. VI. Turnout (TO=#voting/#eligible) A. Turnout since 1960 (next slide) B. Why is it low? 1. Rational Voter (Anthony Downs) – is it really rational to vote? • your vote does not matter practically. It is never decisive over an election’s outcome. • the costs of voting (registration, weather, driving, lines…) are to many much greater than the benefits (the probability that your vote will be decisive + any good feelings you get from it). Vote=Costs – Benefits + (intrinsic rewards) 2. Registration Burdens • registration typically occurs during times of low political interest. • 85% of registered voters turnout, while 50% of eligible voters vote. • Registration is supposed to prevent voter fraud

10. C. What causes it to increase or decrease? • Intense political competition • Political Alienation – when people feel that they are incapable of affecting the political process they are less likely to vote (this has happened since Watergate, 70s) • Intensity – extremists or ideologues are more likely to vote (this is why candidates are typically more extreme sounding during primaries and more centrist sounding during general elections) • Education: Most important; Income; Age (all are positively related; next slide)

12. D. Explaining the Recent Decrease in Turnout in the U.S. • Despite the relaxation of voter registration requirements, voter turnout has still not improved significantly. Why? • Trust in Government and Efficacy Beliefs are down • Expansion of the electorate (18 year olds are less likely to vote) • Decline of Party Strength and Organization • Voter Mobility Up E. Comparative Voting: The U.S. is near the bottom of voter turnout compared to other Western Democracies • Many include only registered voters • Many require voting

13. VII. Is Low Voter Turnout Bad? • George Will (Elitism) – Nonvoters are more likely to be of lower socioeconomic class (less informed/educated). Do we want the “ignorant” voting? Many of the founding fathers sympathized with this argument (fear of BOTH “tyranny of the king AND tyranny of the majority or masses). • What if nonvoting is a political statement being expressed in a democracy? 1. Expressing indifference between candidates or general satisfaction with status quo. 2. Groups my abstain in order to send an electoral message to a party (“Stop taking us for granted”)

14. Ch 9: Campaigns and Elections I. Elections and Democracy A. Mandate – perception of popular support for a candidate’s political platform after he/she wins. B. Retrospective Judgment – voting based upon the past performance of and satisfaction with a candidate. C. Prospective Judgment – voting based upon candidate pledges about the future. D. Protection of Rights – “…without the vote, we can be certain that government would have very little incentive to respond to popular needs.” As LBJ said, II. Who Runs for Office? A. Requirements and skills needed for office-seekers

16. B. Political Entrepreneurship – the ability to sell oneself as a candidate, to raise money from contributors, to organize people to work on their behalf, and to communicate and publicize themselves through the media (political success like business success). C. Communication skills – candidates must make many speeches and appearances, numerous appeals to special groups and contributors. How you say it, not what you say. X. Incumbency advantage • Since 1950, 90% of incumbent House members win reelection; 70% of incumbent Senators win reelection. • Even when Congress is collectively unpopular, people still reelect their own members.

17. A. Aids to IA: 1. Name recognition – people often prefer the “devil they knew” to the one they do not. 2. Campaign Contributions – groups who want to influence policy already give to incumbent candidates. Groups do not want to offend officeholders by helping challengers. 3. Resources (advantages) of office • Franking privileges – free use of the U.S. mail • Tax funded travel allowances (make local appearances and speeches) • Large staffs (tax payer funded) working every day over many years to ensure reelection. • Casework (service to constituents) wins voters on at a time. XI. Raising Campaign money • Spending on the rise, everywhere: 1990-$446m Congressional races; Over $1b today. For president, $331 1992 and $713 today). B. Type of Contributions (regulated by Federal Election commission): Individuals ($2000 max; most common form of contribution); Political Action Committees (Congress only); Public money; Candidate self-financing

18. * Soft money once allowed to be given to parties instead of candidates, now banned. Often, money is now given to interest groups instead who buy Issue Ads (IRS code 527s) uncoordinated by candidates (e.g., Swift Vets for Truth and Moveon.org). XII. Presidential Campaign: • Primaries – state election where voters choose their party’s nominees. • Open – any voter can vote in the party’s primary. • Closed – only registered party voters can vote in the party’s primary. B. Caucuses – A series of meetings in a state where party members meet (3 hrs roughly) to do party business and “stand up” for a candidate of their choice. Raiding occurs when voters of one party try to harm the other by voting in its primary in a strategic way. C. Presidential Primaries Strategies • New Hampshire Primary – provides less than 1% of needed delegates, but remains important because the media covers it so heavily and one’s performance speaks to one’s electability. Doing well early can result in more funding. • Front-End Strategy – Spending most of the money or attention allocated to primaries on early primary states.

19. Big-State Strategy – Spend time and money on the big-states mainly. Already strong candidates with well-funded campaigns are usually the ones who choose this strategy. By the time that most of these states are holding primaries, weaker candidates usually drop out. D. Delegates – Candidates are technically seeking the support of each state’s party delegates to the national convention. Democrats have two kinds of delegates: Pledged (rank and file state party members: they “pledge” to cast their votes at the convention according to how the state’s primary/caucus went in the Spring, either winner takes all or proportional) and Superdelegates (delegates not chosen at state level; they are typically a national party leader or politician; have far greater freedom to vote how they want at the convention).

20. C. Electoral College: (next slide, drawn to scale) 538 presidential electors apportioned among the states according to their congressional representation (plus 3 for D.C.) whose votes officially elect the president and VP. • The biggest prizes are CA (55), NY (31), Texas (32) and Florida (27) • It takes 270 or more electoral votes to win general election. If no candidate gets 270 (majority), then the election is decided in the House of Representatives where each state delegation gets one vote. XIII. Voter Decides A. Explaining voter decisions • Party ID – key determinant of vote choice • Group ID – (income class, race, religion, etc.). Gaps in race, gender, and church attendance and evangelical Protestant, education. • Candidate Image (Kennedy, Dole, Clinton, Reagan…) • Economy – if there is an incumbent president, retrospective; if not prospective evaluation. • Issue Voting (least significant explanation for a voter’s decision)