Sustaining and Developing Community Resilience Scottish Futures Forum: 25 th January 2010

1. Sustaining and Developing Community ResilienceScottish Futures Forum: 25th January 2010 Budgetary Scenario 2010-15: Threat or Opportunity Colin Mair, CEO, Improvement Service

2. Future pressures The outcome focus Community resilience and capacity in context Going forward Scope

3. Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2010/11 – 2013/14 (% real terms)

4. Growth Forecast • 3.25% per annum 2011/12 - 2013/14 • ½% above average 2000 - 2007 • 70% of growth from private consumption • Unemployment; real wages; credit conditions; house values; public sector retrenchment • 1% forecast error = £10 billion off public spending

5. Demography Headline Projections • Scotland’s 65+ population projected to rise by 21% between 2006 – 2016 • By 2031 it will have risen by 62% • For the 85+ age group specifically, a 38% rise is projected for 2016 • By 2031, the increase is 144% • The ‘dependency ratio’ sharply increases: 20% by 2020

6. Demand Projections • Services for older people: 2% real growth to stand still (Kings fund; Sutherland review) • Services for children: policy priorities & increased spend on children with learning support needs/special needs: 3 – 4% per annum • Impacts of recession: education; social work; policing & community safety; business support; housing; leisure, etc • Overall 2% real terms per annum

7. Scottish Block Finance & Demand 2009/10 – 2017/18 (% real terms)

8. Implications • Our current pattern of services and spending are unsustainable against future finance and demand • The historic pattern failed those with the highest need The overarching commitments to early intervention; equally well and anti-poverty challenge historic service models anyway • We need to fundamentally rethink how we deliver and what we are delivering

9. Long-Term Strategic Issues • Improved outcomes while minimising demand and cost, therefore • Prevention: Early intervention; co-production and communal capacity • Fundamentally rethinking entitlements, business models and resource consumption • PSR: Rationalisation and integration at local level

10. The National Performance Framework in Scotland • Purpose: Sustainable economic development • Strategic objectives: Healthier, wealthier, fairer, smarter, greener • National outcomes: 15 derived from purpose and objectives • SOA: Priority local outcomes given context, circumstances and national outcomes

11. What Do We Mean By Outcomes? • The quality of life of individuals, households and communities • The opportunities in life of individuals, households and communities • The living context of individuals, households and communities The ‘why’ of public service provision

12. Developing The Outcome Focus • We can’t do outcomes to people • Past patterns of success and failure in health, education and community safety reflect tacit dependence and frustration of co-production • We need to invest in peoples ability to co-produce • This may result in redefining the boundaries of the state and individual and community rights and responsibilities

13. 4 Propositions • Communal capacity and confidence underpins all other outcomes • Public service monopoly approaches to wellbeing issues do not work • Social capital mobilisation will become progressively more important as public spending declines • Community empowerment = Economic and social equalisation (not simply tools and methodologies)

14. The New Culture • Self sufficiency……………..interdependency • Service focussed…………..outcome focussed • Fragmented…………………integrated • Agency focus……………….customer focus • Government capacity………community capacity

15. Going Forwards • Spending Review; budgeting and ‘core business’ • Protecting fragile flowers: Retrenchment and public values • Moving from ‘initiatives’ to core management approach • Removing negative demand by focussing on outcomes