Dr. Ozcan Saritas Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

1. Innovation Foresight, Foresightful Innovation Dr. Ozcan Saritas Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

2. Drivers of innovation • Printing, gunpowder and the compass have changed the whole face and state of things throughout the world... (Francis Bacon, 1620). • Improvements in machinery go hand in hand with the division of labor, and very pretty machines ... facilitate and quicken production... (Adam Smith, 1776). • The bourgeoisie cannot exist without constantly revolutionizing the means of production! (Karl Marx, 1848). • Knowledge is the chief engine of progress in the economy (Alfred Marshall, 1897). • The entrepreneur and his search for new combinations is the driving force in all economic development... (Joseph Schumpeter, 1911). • Science and basic research are incredibly powerful sources of future economic and societal development... (Vannevar Bush, 1945). Dr. Ozcan Saritas

3. Trends Drivers of change Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements What future for nano?

4. New global context & Challenges for Innovation • Increased financial, trade and investment flows • Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies • New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights • New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services • Global value chains and production networks Dr. Ozcan Saritas

5. New innovation paradigm • Innovation paradigm has shifted from technology and markets to ecosystems of research and social networks, services and policy • Linear model of innovation is outpaced. Focus on ‘integration and networking’ • Innovation as a dynamic ‘system’: It is multidisciplinary and technologically complex • Global innovation landscape – with advances coming from centers of excellence around the world and the demands of billions of new consumers • Relationship between technology and society: Social Shaping of Technology-Framework • Necessity to diagnose the changing Innovation landscape to address these issues for ‘Foresightful Innovation’ Dr. Ozcan Saritas

6. Innovation Foresight (IF) for Foresightful Innovation IF draws on the systematic involvement of stakeholdersfrom the early stages of aholistic innovation process by discovering future opportunities and risks and informing present-day decision-making, strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory. Dr. Ozcan Saritas

7. Essential elements of Innovation Foresight • Anticipation and projections of long-term developments • Interactive and participative methods of debate and analysis • Forging new social networks • Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment • Implications for present-day decisions and actions Dr. Ozcan Saritas

8. Key requirements • Multi-context focus • Understanding real-life systems and natural settings • Long-term focus with intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks • Inclusivity • Participation of all stakeholders on equal terms • Involvement troughout whole process • Methodological support • Integration of best practices, methods and tools • Understanding the shortcomings of traditional user research methods (plasticity) Dr. Ozcan Saritas

9. Innovation Foresight • Fits in open, society-driven innovation paradigm • Facilitates future-oriented dialogue between the relevant stakeholders in the systemic innovation process • Enables collective visioning, mutual learning and networking and • Yields long term strategic orientation, future innovation opportunities and research priorities • Aims at greater inclusivity through SST-approach to Foresight • Inclusive process draws on formal Foresight methods Dr. Ozcan Saritas

10. Phasesof Innovation Foresight • Intelligence • Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand • Imagination • The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world • Integration • Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future • Interpretation • Translates future visions into long-, medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme • Intervention • Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations

11. Intelligence • Scanning for Intelligence gathering • “The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002) • Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanning • Scanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of Trends, Drivers of Change, Wild Cards / Shocks, Weak Signals and Discontinuities Scanning Bibliometrics / Data Mining Literature Review Interviews Trends/Drivers Indicators System Analysis Panels Workshops Dr. Ozcan Saritas

12. Key questions for Intelligence gathering • What kind of developments will occur? • Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful? • How soon may these developments occur? • What might be the first signs that these developments are happening? • Where and how might the leading indications of impending change be seen? • Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? • What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these indications? • Who needs to know about these impending changes? Dr. Ozcan Saritas

13. Context, content & process of Foresight Social system Technological system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values Dr. Ozcan Saritas

14. Information sources [Reger,2001]

15. Evidence-based Foresight & Policy: Using best evidence to make decisions about the future Fit between expertise, expectations and evidence Subjectivity of information Quality of data • Points to consider • on the use of information

16. EU-27, North America and Asia-Pacific are the core regions affected by most of the trends Environmental sustainability, alternative energy sources, increasing conflicts and enhancement of S&T are globally shared trends Equal opportunities, increased consumption, privacy and security concerns are connected largely to the Western world Ageing population is a concern in the EU and EU candidate countries and North America BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions World regions Trends

17. 2008-2015 Environmental and sustainability concerns are shared by all Changing socio-economic patterns and environmental and sustainability concerns are tightly linked Financial crisis close to the core issues BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions T

18. 2016-2025 The relationship between environmental and sustainability concerns, alternative energy sources, and the role of S&T is emphasised by all Ageing population is a more shared concern Financial crisis becomes more peripheral for world regions BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions T

19. 2025 - beyond Climate change is right at the centre and becomes appreciated by all world regions More emphasis on the scarcity of natural resources No mention of financial crisis, globalisation, and new diseases and pandemics BPS2008 – Network Analysis of trends by world regions T

20. Imagination “Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome Gaming Scenario Planning Wild Card Weak Signals Network Analysis Agent Based Modelling Modelling / Simulation Panels Workshops Dr. Ozcan Saritas

21. Jean-Marc Côté's Visions of the • Year 2000 (1899)

22. What of the Horse • a Hundred Years Hence? People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)

23. Understanding the time spans of change

24. Integration • Concerned with the systemic analysis of future alternatives and building a vision • The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated. • For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981). • The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future SWOT Analysis Multi Criteria Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Scoring Voting/Rating Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Panels Workshops Dr. Ozcan Saritas

25. Interpretation • Translates visions into strategies for a successful change programme. • Conditions for the successful transformation strategies: • Assessment (e.g. processing information; developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system) • Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources) • Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions) • Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours) • Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage) Backcasting Road Mapping Relevance Trees Logic Charts Linear Programming Strategic Planning Panels Workshops Dr. Ozcan Saritas

26. Intervention • Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and actions. • Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations. • Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation: • Adapting • Influencing and shaping its context • Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in its context • Adding value to the viability and development of wider wholes in which it is embedded Priority Lists Critical/Key Technologies R&D Planning Action Planning Operational Planning Impact Assessment Panels Workshops Dr. Ozcan Saritas

27. Interaction • Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system • Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights • Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation • Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework • Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources • The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity Interaction Dr. Ozcan Saritas

28. Questions for Foresight What is feasible? What is possible? Technology & Economics Science & Ecology Systemic Foresight What is desirable? Socioeconomics Politics & Values Dr. Ozcan Saritas

29. Putting all together: Innovation Foresight Integration Interpretation Intervention Imagination Intelligence Scanning Gaming SWOT Analysis Backcasting Priority Lists Bibliometrics / Data Mining Scenario Planning Multi Criteria Analysis Road Mapping Critical/Key Technologies Literature Review Wild Card Weak Signals Cross Impact Analysis Relevance Trees R&D Planning Action Planning Interviews Network Analysis Prioritisation / Delphi Logic Charts Interaction Operational Planning Trends/Drivers Indicators Agent Based Modelling Scoring Voting/Rating Linear Programming System Analysis Modelling / Simulation Benefit/Cost /Risk Analysis Strategic Planning Impact Assessment Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Panels Workshops Dr. Ozcan Saritas

30. Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk