Systemic Foresight Methodology Dr. Ozcan Saritas Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

1. Systemic Foresight MethodologyDr. Ozcan SaritasOzcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk

2. Presentation Outline • Evolution of the Foresight practice • Changing nature of situations & increasing complexity • Challenges for Foresight • Need for Systemic Foresight approaches – with the introduction of the ideas of systems thinking

3. early foresight - pre ’60s The existence of human on the earth surface:The act of anticipation as an unavoidable human characteristic 16th to 18th centuries: To improve decision making and public debate and to anticipate long-term trends and long-term implications of short-term decisions. Wide scope & wide array of issues due to increasing complexity of societies 19th century:The future of capitalist economies by classical political economists. Following the industrial revolution: Fragmentation of social studies - more focused and short term orientation of social sciences ‘50s:The principles of trend extrapolation and social indicators, and the methods of expert analysis (e.g. Delphi & cross-impact) were established. First computer simulation studies were becoming well-known

4. Institutional Foresight - ’60s to present ‘60s:Narrowly focused forecasting activities – the probabilistic assessment of what is likely to happen in the future ‘70s: Change in the understanding of forecasting due to increasing complexity and uncertainty of societies and economies (e.g. unpredicted oil shocks in the ‘70s) ‘80s:Multiple futures thinking, participatory activities, where both processes (i.e. networks, tacit outcomes) and products (i.e. codified outputs) were given emphasis

5. Foresight - ’90s Foresight for S&T policy making by government, industry and other organisations The key elements of Foresight in the 1990s: S&T is central focus Systematic process Longer timeframe than in existing S&T planning S&T in relation to economic and social developments “Foresight is the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer term future of science, technology, the economy, and society with the aim of identifying areas of strategic research and the emerging new technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits” (Martin, 1995).

6. Foresight - 2000s Change in the S&T dominated appearance with increasing concerns on social aspects due to: The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) The development of service economies. Considerable portions of economic activity, employment and output have started taking place in service sectors of the economy Other developments including globalisation, changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and society

7. “the application of‘systematic’, ‘participatory’, ‘future-intelligence-gathering and medium-to-long-term vision building process’to‘informing present-day decisionsandmobilising joint actions’” Five essential elements of Foresight Miles and Keenan (2002)

8. Foresight – 2010s? Policy contexts and challenges The new global context • Increased financial, trade and investment flows • Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs, biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies • New international regulations and standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights • New systems to design, produce, distribute, and manage products and services • Global value chains and production networks

10. Shift from government to governance • Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ state • Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights • Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation • Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework • Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources • The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars

11. New Foresight landscape Foresight

12. Foresight

14. Health and social services system • Understanding of the interdependencies and dynamics of the health and social services system Interdependency of sub-systems in the welfare system

16. Implications for Foresight practice • Nature of situations have become more complex and uncertain • Traditional method-driven “systematic” Foresight practice is not sufficient to deal with these situations • Introduction of thought experiments for understanding, appreciation and modelling • Need for “Systemic Foresight” approaches

17. System System “A set of elements connected together which form a whole, this showing the properties which are properties of the whole, rather than properties of its component parts” (Checkland, 1981, p.4). Systems Thinking: Viewing ‘events’ as a system and/or part of larger systems

19. Thought experiments • Systemic understanding • Creates shared understanding and mutual appreciation of issues at hand • Systems synthesis and modelling • The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world • Systemic analysis and Selection • Analyses the alternative models of the future and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future • System transformation • Establishes the relationship between the future and the present for a change programme • Systemic action • Creates plans to inform present day decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations Systemic Foresight Methodology

20. Understanding context, content & process of Foresight Social system Technological system Economic system Ecological system Political system Values

21. Questions for SFM What is possible? What is feasible? Technology & Economics Science & Ecology Systemic Foresight What is desirable? Socioeconomics Politics & Values

23. Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’ Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and involvement Conclusions

24. End of presentation.. Dr. Ozcan Saritas Ozcan.Saritas@manchester.ac.uk