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Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21 st Century

Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21 st Century. Expected outputs:. Country-level projections of GDP per capita and population derived from SRES storylines;. Population projections. GDP projections. Expected outputs:.

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Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21 st Century

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  1. Hands-on practice: developing GDP per capita and total population projections for your country in the 21st Century

  2. Expected outputs: • Country-level projections of GDP per capita and population derived from SRES storylines;

  3. Population projections GDP projections

  4. Expected outputs: • Country-level projections of GDP and population derived from SRES storylines; • Preliminary analysis on the range of projections under different SRES storylines, and on the consistency of the projected trends with relation to current trends; • Selected presentations (two volunteers required!) to share with the group: • The projections; • Insights on the credibility of such projections; and • Comments on the process of downscaling SRES storylines to country-level socio-economic projections

  5. Data to work with: • Projections of GDP growth and population change (both in percentage terms) for Asia derived from the four SRES storylines; • World Bank country-level population in 1990; • World Bank country-level growth rate of GDP during 1990~2003; • World Bank country-level GDP in current US$ for 2003; • The equation below can be used to calculate the GDP or population for a given decade following a particular SRES storyline:

  6. Time lines: • Projections – 20 minutes; • Analysis – 20 minutes; • Presentations and discussions – 20 minutes

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