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School of Social Work

What Can W e E xpect in the Future? As we confront our challenges, what will be the primary problems we will need to solve?. Mark Testa Spears-Turner Distinguished Professor 50 Years of CCAI: Celebrating our Past- -- Envisioning our Future Chicago, IL June 13, 2014.

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School of Social Work

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  1. What Can We Expect in the Future? As we confront our challenges, what will be the primary problems we will need to solve? Mark Testa Spears-Turner Distinguished Professor 50 Years of CCAI: Celebrating our Past--- Envisioning our Future Chicago, IL June 13, 2014 School of Social Work

  2. Futurology 101

  3. How Did I Do? 61.8 12.3% 63.1% 28,000

  4. Ignore the Spike!

  5. AFDC: Big Miss! 61.8 12.3% 63.1% 28,000 Can that be right?

  6. Assistance to Needy Families: Illinois Projection Sources: Testa, M. et al. (1979). Human Services in Illinois: Trends and Projections to the Year 2000. Chicago: Task Force on the Future of Illinois Statistical Abstracts of the United States: 1980-2012

  7. Assistance to Needy Families: Illinois Projection Sources: Testa, M. et al. (1979). Human Services in Illinois: Trends and Projections to the Year 2000. Chicago: Task Force on the Future of Illinois Statistical Abstracts of the United States: 1980-2012

  8. Assistance to Needy Families: Illinois Projection Sources: Testa, M. et al. (1979). Human Services in Illinois: Trends and Projections to the Year 2000. Chicago: Task Force on the Future of Illinois Statistical Abstracts of the United States: 1980-2012

  9. Assistance to Needy Families: Illinois Projection Sources: Testa, M. et al. (1979). Human Services in Illinois: Trends and Projections to the Year 2000. Chicago: Task Force on the Future of Illinois Statistical Abstracts of the United States: 1980-2012

  10. And the Foster Caseload Didn’t Explode!

  11. Potential Futures Framework CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety 32% 33% 34% Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 11

  12. Potential Futures Framework CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 12

  13. Child Welfare Outcomes CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety Health SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Permanence Continuity Stability Education Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 13

  14. Permanency Options CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety Licensed Kinship Care SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) Informal Kinship Care COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Guardianship Family Preservation Unlicensed Kinship Care Adoption Stability Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 14

  15. Wicked Problems Crystal Ball CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Corporatism Libertarianism SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Communitarianism Egalitarianism STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 15

  16. Three Welfare Democracies Source:Esping-Anderson, G. (2006). The three worlds of welfare capitalism.” In C. Pierson & F.G. Castles (Eds.), The welfare state reader, second edition. Cambridge: Polity Press;

  17. Potential Political Futures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Italy United States SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Port-Gamble Tribe Sweden STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 17

  18. Income Inequality 1977 Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the 21st century. Cambridge: Harvard University Press – Technical Appendix http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c

  19. Income Inequality 1977 Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the 21st century. Cambridge: Harvard University Press – Technical Appendix http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/capital21c

  20. Where U.S. Could Be in 20 Years CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Corporatism Libertarianism Where the class distributes on where they think the US could be in 20 years SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Communitarianism Egalitarianism VOLUNTARY (Altruism) STATE (Justice) UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest)

  21. Three Welfare Democracies 65% 42% 82% Source:Esping-Anderson, G. (2006). The three worlds of welfare capitalism.” In C. Pierson & F.G. Castles (Eds.), The welfare state reader, second edition. Cambridge: Polity Press; www.bit.ly/1fLik8W

  22. Extension of the Life Course Currently those 65 or older comprise 13% of the population; by 2030 the proportion is projected to rise to 21%. In Illinois, the projected rise is from 12% to 18% of the state population. Source:Centers for Disease Control

  23. Is Demography Destiny? The old-age dependency ratio for Illinois in 2030 will look like Sweden’s ratio in 2010.

  24. Total U.S. Expenditures & Projections Other Defense Old Age Health Care Family & Children http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1960_2019USb_15s2li0181097_582cs_41t10t00t30t80t

  25. Wicked Problems Crystal Ball CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Corporatism Libertarianism SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Communitarianism Egalitarianism STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 25

  26. Strengths of the Voluntary Sector • More Efficiency • More Innovations • More Citizen Participation • More Integration of Clientele 26

  27. Post-Permanency World: Illinois 1997: 50,843 in care 12,068 AA/SG 2011: 15,224 in care 34,742 AA/SG Kinship & Traditional Foster Care 1985: 13,818 in care 3,706 in AA Adoption and Guardianship Source: N. Rolock (2012) Post-Permanency in Illinois, Jane Addams College of Social Work. DCFS Administrative data as of 6/30/2011

  28. Trends in the Accordion Family

  29. Ratio of Foster Care to Kinship Care Placement among Children living Out-of-Home 18-months After Maltreatment Report: 1999-2000 and 2008-2009, United States p <.01

  30. Changes on Caseworker Reported Family Risk Factors Among Children Reported to the Child Welfare System in 1999-2000 and 2008-2009, United States *** ** Weighted % *** *** ** * *** NSCAW I N=4.997; NSCAW II N=4,669 *p <.05; **p <.01; ***p <.001

  31. Illinois Investigates the Same Per-CapitaVolume of Alleged Maltreatment Cases as the Balance of the U.S Rate per 1,000 Children Balance of US: 39.1 per 1,000 Illinois: 39.0 per 1,000 Data Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Administration on Children, Youth and Families, Children's Bureau, www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb Data current as of July 2012

  32. But Illinois Removes Children at Half the Rate as the Rest of the US Rate per 1,000 Children Balance of US: 3.5 per 1,000 Illinois: 1.7 per 1,000 Data Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Administration for Children and Families, Administration on Children, Youth and Families, Children's Bureau, www.acf.hhs.gov/programs/cb Data current as of July 2012

  33. Illinois Sample vs. Rest of U.S. Sample Substantiated Cases, 2008-2009 ** p<.01, two-tailed chi-square test

  34. Comparison of Behavioral/Emotional or Cognitive Problems Among Children 6 to 14 years old Reported to the Child Welfare System in 1999-2000 and 2008-2009, U.S. NSCAW I N=2,563; NSCAW II N=1,578

  35. Brokering Partnerships CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Faith-Based Groups Charitable Giving Good Samaritans For-Profit Firms Corporate Giving Social Impact Bonds Philanthropies CCAI SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Private and Public Universities Voluntary Associations Family Support Kinship Care Public Agencies IV-E Waivers Consent Decrees STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 35

  36. Mediating Structures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) Meritorious in Our Altruism COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Kinship Altruism v. Paid Foster Care STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 36

  37. Mediating Structures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Just in Our Acknowledgement of Altruism Well-Being Subsidized Guardianship Kinship Altruism UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 37

  38. Mediating Structures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Evidence-Based Authority-Based Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Deference to the Meritorious SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 38

  39. Mediating Structures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) “Who Am I to Judge.” Pope Francis, 2013 SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) Just in Commanding Deference COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Catholic Charities v. State of Illinois STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 39

  40. Mediating Structures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) Gamesters SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Integrity of Agency Relationships STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Well-Being Free riders UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 40

  41. Mediating Structures CONSTRAINED (Narrow Scope of Public Interest) Safety TRADITION (Deference) MARKET (Merit) SYSTEM (Achievement-Universalism) COMMUNITY (Particularism-Ascription) Illinois Birth Thru Three (IB3) IV-E Waiver STATE (Justice) VOLUNTARY (Altruism) Just in Our Dedication to Well-Being Well-Being Accountability Responsibility Responsibility UNCONSTRAINED (Diffuse Scope of Public Interest) 41

  42. Professional Altruists • Deference to the meritorious • Evidence-Based over Authority-Based • Just in Our Acknowledge of Altruism • Subsidized Guardianship over Kinship Diversion • Dedicated to Well-Being • Responsible but not accountable for children’s well-being: IB3 • Protecting the Integrity of Principal-Agent Relationships • Rooting out gamesters & free-riders • Just in Our Commanding of Deference • “Who am I to judge.”- Pope Francis 42

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