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The application of Models-3 in national policy

The application of Models-3 in national policy. Samantha Baker Air and Environment Quality Division, Defra. Value of air quality modelling in policy development.

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The application of Models-3 in national policy

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  1. The application of Models-3 in national policy Samantha Baker Air and Environment Quality Division, Defra

  2. Value of air quality modelling in policy development • To provide a quantitative link between pollutant emissions at one or many locations, and the resulting concentrations or deposition experienced by humans or the environment, which is being protected. This allows changes in impact resulting from hypothetical changes in emissions to be readily evaluated.

  3. Why use air quality modelling for policy development? • To establish the current picture (compliance with legal obligations, or calculate baseline to compare future scenarios against) • To establish future scenarios under business as usual (assess progress towards future legislative targets) • To establish future scenarios that go beyond business as usual (assess impact of a range of potential abatement strategies to inform a negotiating position, to meet future legislative targets, or effects of proposed development)

  4. Conflicting requirements in using modelling for policy applications • Need to have a reasonable turn around time for scenario runs, especially during negotiating periods • Need to have confidence in the model predictions - must believe that the model output is an accurate representation of what is currently happening and what will happen in the future – best science

  5. Legislative drivers • Air Quality Framework Directive and its Daughter Directives • Clean Air For Europe • National Emission Ceilings Directive • UNECE Gothenburg Protocol • IPPC, LCPD • National Air Quality Strategy

  6. AEQ7 contracts • Modelling concentrations and deposition of long range air pollutants • to develop and apply UK scale models for the deposition and concentration of a range of long range air pollutants including S and N compounds • The UK Application of the EMEP model • to develop and test a mesoscale version of the Unified EMEP Eulerian model for use in the UK at a 5km resolution • The UK Application of Eulerian models at fine spatial resolution • to investigate the use of state of the art Eulerian models, including Models-3, as possible future replacements for FRAME, the current Lagrangian model used to predict S and N deposition in the UK

  7. WP1- Initial assessment • Installation of operating versions of Models-3 and other state of the art Eulerian models • Provision of high quality UK meteorology for operation of the models • Verification of the atmospheric chemistry components of the models • Comparison of the transport processes in the models with other models

  8. WP2 - Implementation across the UK • Successful implementation of models at a fine spatial scale (between 1 and 5km) in the UK • Connection of models to a continental wide model domain using model nesting • Investigation of the use of multiple atmospheric layers close to the ground surface

  9. WP3 - Comparison with modelled and monitored data • Comparison of sulphur and nitrogen concentrations and deposition generated by the Eulerian models with each other • Comparison of sulphur and nitrogen concentrations and deposition generated by the Eulerian models with output from existing UK models • Comparison of sulphur and nitrogen concentrations and deposition generated by the Eulerian models with field measurements

  10. Achievements • The model runs for time periods of a month on a 5km UK domain nested with a western European 45km scale domain • The model outputs are comparable with observed data • The effectiveness of the orographic enhancement of wet deposition is currently being studied.

  11. Constraints • Input of UK emissions data proved to be more difficult than expected • The computing resource to run the model across the whole UK domain remains considerable • The meteorology used comes from MM5 with ECMWF data • The sub-grid scale processes (e.g. for NH3) will not be improved within this project

  12. Episode: June 1999 • Meteo: Hourly 3D meteorological fields from the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model MM5 • BCs and ICs: Boundary and Initialconcentrations from the 3D Lagrangian transport chemical model STOCHEM • Emissions: CO,NO2,SO2,NH3, PM10 and PM25 from EMEP database (http://webdab.emep.int/) and NAEI (National Emission Inventory) database (http://www.naei.org.uk)

  13. Preliminary results from episode: June 1999 • Concentration maps of CO,NO2,SO2 and O3 at every hour and for 6 different vertical layers • Hourly trends of surface concentration in single grid cells • Daily averages of surface concentration in single grid cells • Scatter plots • Statistical parameters

  14. Concentration maps

  15. Rochester

  16. Daily averages

  17. Scatter plots

  18. Monthly averages

  19. Future work • Extension of the validation to longer periods of time (typical summer and winter periods) and more pollutants (NH3) • Sensitivity analysis • Emission scenarios • Comparison with FRAME

  20. Thank you for your attention Samantha.Baker@defra.gsi.gov.uk 020 7082 8901

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