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Global Partnerships – Arrivals Update

Global Partnerships – Arrivals Update. Presented by: Scott Johnson Travel Market Insights. Brazil China Canada. Travel Market Insights. CONSUMER Inbound International Visitor Market Analysis 45 plus DMO’s, Businesses, Associations

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Global Partnerships – Arrivals Update

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  1. Global Partnerships – Arrivals Update Presented by: Scott Johnson Travel Market Insights Brazil China Canada
  2. Travel Market Insights CONSUMER Inbound International Visitor Market Analysis 45 plus DMO’s, Businesses, Associations Strategic international visitor market research and planning Est. 2000 IN-COUNTRY TRADE Travel Trade Barometer China, Japan, UK, Germany, Canada, Mexico Quarterly bookings; plus projected bookings Trade Survey Partner Driven NEW: Inbound Monitor
  3. Trivia – Do You Know Your International Markets! What Country is the top spender? What Country registered the largest increase in visitor volume in 2012? Which country’s visitor arrivals grew faster than any other major country? Which country’s visitors spent more per trip than any other country? A hint: also spent the most on shopping per visitor per trip. Which country’s visitors spend more on a per visitor per day basis? Which of these countries has a strong interest in America’s rich culture, gastronomy, and shopping?
  4. Forecast: Total International Visitor Arrivals 25% Growth 18/12 Add 17.2 million new visitors Source: U.S. DOC, NTTO No v. 2013 Forecast
  5. Arrivals to the U.S. Total Arrivals 68 M Total North America 37 M Or 55% of total arrivals Overseas 45% Canada 34% Mexico 21% Source: U.S. DOC, NTTO No v. 2013 Forecast
  6. Forecast 2012-2018 Source: U.S. DOC, NTTO No v. 2013 Forecast
  7. Canada Forecast: Positives and Negatives Positives Negatives Taxes and fees pushing many travelers to US; and US airports along boarder – potentially inflating growth in US arrivals Caribbean and Mexico low cost all inclusive packaging Proposed visitation fees and potential changes in long-stay visa requirements PATA calls for zero growth from Canada – except for Hawaii Duty-free exemption for goods Government financially in good shape (relatively) Low-to-moderate GDP growth Growing population (immigration driven) Currency exchange rate will likely remain just below par Air capacity growing Stable unemployment Brand USA June/Sept. campaign
  8. World Region Forecast 2012-2018 Source: U.S. DOC, NTTO No v. 2013 Forecast
  9. Source: U.S. DOC, NTTO No v. 2013 Forecast
  10. China Forecast: Positives and Negatives Positives Negatives Economic growth is slowing – single digit GDP growth projected Export reliant New Travel Law – unknown impact Inflation Banks overextended Emerging market crisis? GDP/Capita PPP is low but high rate Currency exchange rate above expectations of IMF forecast Airline seat capacity growing Air China expanding service to several US cities (Houston) Growing middle class Gov. encouraging outbound Visa wait times decreased Brand USA (regional) campaign
  11. Brazil Forecast: Positives and Negatives Positives Negatives Currency declined 14% in 2012, expected to decline an additional 30% over forecast period Cannibalization – World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics GDP growth stalled Inflation Visa wait times Emerging market crisis? Argentina… Anemic GDP growth – but visitation remained strong Open Skies being implemented Growing middle class (1-2% of pop. travel/yr) Stable unemployment Airline seat capacity (20% annually) AA adding frequency and new routes Visa wait times decreased Brand USA June/Sept. campaign
  12. Forecast by World Region 2012 to 2018
  13. Forecast: Overseas Top Countries2012 to 2018
  14. U.S. DOC National Travel And Tourism OfficeForecast 2012 - 2018
  15. Global Partnerships – Panel Claudia Saleh, Brazil Travel Editor Joan Brzezinski – China Center, Confucius Institute, U. of Minn. Ruth Williamson, U.S. Commercial Service – Canada Catarina Westfahl, Mark International
  16. Market Shifts – What to know? Brazil: Propensity to travel Propensity to Shop Middle Class vs. Luxury Social media/connected Air Service Barriers: VISA, competition – new dest. Economic growth slowing
  17. Market Shifts – What to know? China: China 2.0 (second wave) China Gov. push for travel abroad + new law Demand shifts – new middle class vs high end Cheap organized vs self-organized group Student Economic growth slowing
  18. Market Shifts – What to know? Canada: Economic Outlook Propensity for Outbound travel (POT Index) More Seniors Barriers? – Gulf oil spill? Motivators? Safety, discounted shopping Opportunities
  19. Global Partnerships – Panel Claudia Saleh, Brazil Travel Editor Joan Brzezinski – China Center, Confucius Institute, U. of Minn. Ruth Williamson, U.S. Commercial Service – Canada Catarina Westfahl, Mark International
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