The Climate Test Bed: Embracing the R2O and the O2R Paradigms

1. The Climate Test Bed: Embracing the R2O and the O2R Paradigms Dr. Louis W. Uccellini Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” September 11, 2008

2. Thanks and Welcome • Thanks to SAB members moving off the board • Dennis Hartmann, University of Washington • Gabriel Lau, GFDL • Welcome new members • Tony Rosati, GFDL • Joe Tribbia, NCAR • Thanks to ESSIC for hosting the meeting

3. Overview • Update on NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Transition Paradigm • Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Ongoing Strategic Priorities • Budget Issues

4. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory (ARL) 40 spaces for research community Move Schedule

5. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Front entrance (L) and Auditorium (R) Atrium Auditorium August 2008

6. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (in background) NORTH

7. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User Test Beds JCSDA CTB DTC JHT OPS Operations R&D Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

8. User needs R2O Research Operations Climate Forecast Products MME CFS Improvements Improved products and services O2R User requirements The CTB Transition Process AO NCEP Co-PI LOI Proposal • Reanalysis / Reforecasts • Earth System Modeling • Tropical oscillations • Model physics • Etc.

9. Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP • Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004) • Climate Test Bed: established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool)

10. Accelerate improvements in the CFS and its use through accelerating Research-to-Operations (R2O) To accelerate R2O, need full support of Operations-to-Research (O2R) to enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process Be a partner within the international and national multi model ensemble enterprises Enhance the CPC operational product suite Address budget issues Ongoing Strategic Priorities

11. Operations to Research (O2R) • Goal • To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by providing CFS to the broad research community • Deliverables • CFS, data, and support services to user community • Annual CFS User's Workshop • Mechanism • Model Test Facility (FY11-15 budget cycle) • Managed operational program between NCEP, CPO, and CTB • Technical and scientific support (help desk) • Reallocation of contract staff in FY09 is being considered • Benefits • Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc) • Maximizes opportunities for community participation

12. Operations to Research (O2R) Proposed Model Test Facility • NCEP will provide • Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis) • Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services • Points of contact for collaboration • CPO will provide • Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services • Grants Program (AOs) • CTB will provide • Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O) • Oversight and management • Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB, HMT) • Gaps • Resources for fully-staffed Model Test Facility • Resources for competitive transition activities, including pilot projects

13. CTB Seminar Series • 2007-2008 • Topic: “CFS as a prediction system and research tool” • Alternating venue between NCEP and COLA • 2008-2009 • Expand to include the broader climate community • Alternating venue between NCEP, COLA, and ESSIC • Broader participation, to include NOAA Air Resources Lab (ARL) • Topic: 3 CTB Focus Areas • CFS Improvements • MME Prediction Systems • Climate Forecast Products • The seminar series will commence in October

14. Developing a MME Prediction System • International MME in negotiations • National MME Strategy • Engaged CPO to request NOAA facilitation • Budget request for additional computing resources FY11-15 • Seeking to include concept in next CCSP Strategic Plan • Pursuing elevation through CLIVAR • NCEP has defined in-house strategy, requirements • Considering running GFDL model in house • Proposal for post doc at COLA for independent evaluation of GFDL model • NCAR CCSM evaluations currently underway via CTB @ COLA

15. Developing a MME Prediction System • National MME Strategy • However • Need MOUs with partners for exchanges of operational models and real time forecast data • NCAR and NASA have their own time lines for model development • CTB resource limitations • Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations • Skill assessments • Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

16. Budget Issues To improve climate predictions and enhance NOAA’s climate product suite, need full CPO support for the CFS, the CTB and its expanded vision, and related transition activities • O2R – Model Test Facility – people, data access, helpdesk, training • CFS next Reanalysis (1979-2007) • CFS next Retrospective Forecasts (1981-2007) • AO for selected topics, including enhanced understanding of climate phenomena to improve CFS • Visiting Scientist Program • MME strategies

17. Summary • NCEP is eager and willing to improve NOAA’s climate prediction capability and product suite • CTB is included in the NCEP Annual Operating Plan with specific milestones linked to Science Steering Committee recommendations • CTB is developing stronger relationships with the climate community • CTB will build upon past successes and future strategies to move climate prediction forward through improvement of the CFS (FY10 implementation) and spin up of the MME approach to short term climate prediction

18. Appendix

19. R&D –vs – Transition ? • Transition costs have been, and still are, under- resourced • Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will likely be competing with each other. Now R&D Transition Future ? ? ? R&D R&D R&D Transition Transition Transition

20. 2007-2008 CTB Seminar Series • COLA Speakers at NCEP • Cristiana Stan - Estimation of the limit of predictability in stratosphere vs troposphere using CFS  • Ben Kirtman - Multi-model ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS • Kathy Pegion - Potential predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability in the NCEP CFS • Zeng-Zhen Hu - CFS hindcast skill as related to the mean state • Renguang Wu - Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with SST in the NCEP • Julia Manganello - Heat and momentum flux-correction experiments with CFS • Deepthi Achuthavarier – South Asian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Variability in CFS • David Straus – CFS as a research tool for understanding mid-latitute intra-seasonal variability and its relationship to SST • NCEP Speakers at COLA • Augustin Vintzileos - Subseasonal prediction with the NCEP CFS: Forecast skill and prediction barriers for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations • Craig Long – CPC’s Evaluation of the Stratosphere in the Operational CFS and CFS-Next • Soo-Hyun Yoo– Simulation of the global monsoon with CFS • Wanqiu Wang – Sources of tropical SST bias in the operational CFS • Lindsay Williams – NAMAP 2 and CFS Model Resolution • Yan Xue - NCEP's GODAS and Ocean Monitoring Products • Ken Mitchell – Summer and winter Season Hindcast Experiments with the CFS using Different Land Models and Different Initial Land States • Jon Gottschalck – MJO Monitoring, Assessment, and Research Activities at the Climate Prediction Center • NCEP Speakers at NCEP • Huug van den Dool - Verification of daily forecasts by the CFS (the 2004 version)

21. COLA Participation with CTB • Current Activities • CFS experiments • 12 COLA Technical Reports already produced based on CFS • 10 COLA scientists, 2 PhD students and 2 summer interns using CFS • Diagnose/model initial tendency errors in GFS/CFS (DelSole CTB project) • Developed an interactive ensemble version of CFS • Potential predictability of intraseasonal variability • ENSO and the ENSO-monsoon relationship • Bias, bias correction & skill in the Atlantic • Winter high-res experiments to complement summer runs made by NCEP • Multi-model experiments • CCSM proof-of-concept (now a CTB project with U. Miami) • CTB Seminar Series (venue and speakers) • Planned contributions • Multi-model R2O • GFDL CM2.1 transition to operations (collaboration with NCEP, GFDL) • GMAO forecast diagnosis (R2O in discussion) • O2R - support for CFS and other models: discussions with NCEP ongoing