NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed (SPC, OUN, NSSL)

1. NOAA Hazardous Weather Test Bed(SPC, OUN, NSSL) • Objectives • Advance the science of weather forecasting and prediction of severe convective weather • Enhance collaboration between researchers and forecasters on topics of mutual interest through real-time forecasting and evaluation activities during active severe weather • Provide for efficient testing and subsequent delivery of program results to NWS operations Disciplined Collaboration to Advance Forecast Operations

2. Primary Objectives of EFP Spring Experiment 2008 • (Experimental Forecast Program) • • Test and refine a real-time, large domain convection-allowing Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) • • Explore the relative impact of assimilating radar reflectivity and velocity data into SSEF members • • Determine strengths and limitations of the ensemble configuration • •Test ways to extract information from the SSEF and deterministic WRF models • Develop product display techniques that provide forecasters with probabilistic guidance • Transfer SSEF guidance products to SPC forecaster workstations • Assess the utility of high resolution convection-allowing deterministic WRF models • •Explore relationship between model forecasts of convective storms and the mesoscale environment • •Test the NCAR-WRF-3DVAR data assimilation system • •Test new objective verification measures • • Provide focused feedback to model developers on performance severe thunderstorm episodes

3. Primary Objectives of EWP Spring Experiment 2008 • (Experimental Warning Program) • Operational evaluation of the phased array radar (PAR) • Operational evaluation of networked 3-cm radars (CASA) in Central Oklahoma • Operational evaluation of experimental high temporal and spatial resolution gridded hazard information (a.k.a. gridded probabilistic warnings)

4. 2007 & 2008 HWT Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) CAPS 4-km 10-member ensemble Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center CAPS 2-km run Sensitivity to horizontal grid spacing 3 Separate WRF forecasts (Different Model Physics) NCAR 3-km EMC 4-km NSSL 4-km Slightly Different Domains CAPS 4-km domain for Ensemble

5. 4km NCAR WRF 4.5 km NMM WRF 2 km CAPS WRF RADAR VERIFICATION

6. Probability of a Linear Configuration of Thunderstorms (e.g., a Squall Line) Simulated Reflectivity Cores (> 40 dBz) from Different Ensemble Members.

8. NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBEDSPC-NSSL Experimental Forecast Program (EFP) Spring Experiment • FY-1996: Winter Weather Short Term Forecasts (NSSL, WFO OUN) • ARPS Evaluation (NSSL, CAPS, WFO OUN) • FY-1997: Winter Short Term Advisories (NSSL, WFO OUN) • SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX) • FY-1998: Fire Weather • SAMEX - ensemble forecasting (NSSL, EMC, CAPS ...) • MEaPRS - MCS, Dual Polarity Radar, Electrification (NSSL, NCAR, etc.) • SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX) • FY-1999: Fire Weather (NSSL) • SCAN Day 3 Outlook (NSSL, NCAR, MDL, WFO LWX) • Probabilistic Convective Outlook (NSSL) • STEP - cloud electrification in Kansas (NSSL, OU, NCAR) • FY-2000: Convective Initiation (NSSL, FSL, EMC) • FY-2001: Watch Lead Time (NSSL, FSL, EMC, ISU) • PTEX - precipitation type (NSSL, HPC) • FY-2002: IHOP- impact of moisture pattern on convective development (NSSL, etc) • Operational & Experimental NWP Evaluation (NSSL, EMC, FSL) • FY-2003: Operational use of Short Range Ensembles (NSSL, FSL, EMC, BMO ... ) • FY-2004: Use of High resolution WRF Model (NSSL, CAPS, NCAR, EMC, FSL) • FY-2005: Three Ultra-High Resolution WRF to see Storm Structure (NSSL, CAPS, EMC,NCAR) • Operational Hi-RES WRF Window WRF in 2005 • FY-2006 Operational Test and Evaluation of β-version WRF (NSSL) • FY-2007 and 2008 10-member Ensemble of Cloud Resolving Models (CAPS)

9. NOAA HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBEDOUN-NSSLExperimental Warning Program (EWP) Experiment • FY-1979 thru 1990: Many Joint Projects including • NEXRAD IOT&E II , JDOP, DOPLIGHT, COPS, MAPS, QED, STORMTIPE • FY 1991- thru 1995: Modernization and Risk Reduction Project (FSL) • Experimental Forecast Facility • FY-1994: VORTEX (NSSL, NSSFC) • Nowcast and Forecast Support • FY-1996 thru 2001: WDSS Operational test and evaluation (NSSL) • FY-2001: Weather Event Simulator (WES) Field Test (WDTB, FSL, SRH) • FY-2002: Advanced AWIPS prototype project. (SRH) • FY-2002 thru 2005: Operational test and evaluation of WDSS II radar display workstation. (NSSL) • Establish operational utility of Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) • Test 4D base radar data analysis tool with interactive dynamic cross-sections and CAPPIs • FY-2003: JPOLE (NSSL), Enhanced Graphical Hazard Depiction (FSL) • Establish operational utility of polarimetric base moments and derived rainfall estimates • Refine FX-Connect application to construct graphical weather hazard graphics on AWIPS • FY-2004: Develop Situation Awareness (SA) Display System (WDTB) • First NWS SA Display • FY-2005: Polarimetric radar sensitivity (FSL); multi-sensor Severe Weather Algorithm (NSSL) • operational impact of 3 dB sensitivity loss compared to WSR-88D • new hail diagnosis, “rotation tracks”, and 3D Lightning Mapping • FY-2006 thru 2008 Impact of Potential New Systems (12-15 out-of-town forecasters) • Assess phased array radar, CASA 3cm radar network, gridded probabilistic warnings

10. HWT Growth Potential

11. www.spc.noaa.gov www.srh.noaa.gov/oun www.nssl.noaa.gov