Setting the World Stage

1. Setting the World Stage

2. The Twentieth Century • Three competing ideologies • Communism • Fascism • Democracy • Democracy alone remains the predominant ideology… • … But extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish!

3. Overview • Transnational Issues • Globalization • North vs. South • Global War on Terror (GWOT) • Religious and Ethnic Factors • Religious Conflicts • Ethnic Conflicts

4. Globalization “The Post Cold War period ended on 11 September. The next decade or so may well be defined by ‘the struggle over globalization.’ Values and concepts long championed by the United States and the West… are being carried forward on the tide of globalization: money, people, information, technology, ideas, goods and services moving around the globe at higher speeds and with fewer restrictions.” – Vice Admiral Thomas R. Wilson, USN, Former Director, Defense Intelligence Agency

5. Globalization Definitions: • “[The] integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and nation-states to reach around the world farther, faster, deeper…than ever before…” • “The compression of the world and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete global interdependence...” Bottom line: Globalization is a widening, deepening and speeding up of interconnectedness in all aspects of contemporary social life from the cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.

6. Dimensions of Globalization • Economic • Environmental • Cultural • Political Each can be analyzed separately, but they often have powerful interconnections

7. Globalization • New Threat Paradigm • Traditional state-oriented model necessary but not sufficient • International boundaries less restrictive • Networks transcending international borders pose great threats to our national interests, security, and homeland

8. Globalization • Many view all globalization as Pro-United States • Fear the dominance of Western ideas, culture, institutions, and power • “Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws” • Blame United States for their problems—easy way to divert attention • “Have-nots” • Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their traditions and way of life.

9. Globalization • Our adversaries believe they must derail the new emerging world order or be taken over by it • View United States as leader in shaping this • Can’t match our political, economic, military, and cultural power • Resort to asymmetric approaches • Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (i.e. Western Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)

10. North vs. South • The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone, replaced by a “North-South Estrangement” • Economic rift between the “Haves” (North) and the “Have-Nots” (South) widens • Consider: • 1.5 billion live on less than $2 a day • 40+% of the world’s population faces the reality or threat of extreme poverty

11. North vs. South • Consider: In 2005, 2.2 billion children in the world… Nearly half live in poverty, and most lack adequate shelter, potable water, and health services • Global poverty trends improving, but Sub-Saharan Africa poverty levels rising The horrors of extreme poverty lead to hopelessness, which fuels extremism; and often, extremism leads to terrorism.

12. Global War on Terror Militant extremism isn’t new… “Those who study jihad will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world. All the countries conquered by Islam or to be conquered in the future will be marked for everlasting salvation. Islam says:Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all!” -- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, 1942 “[The defense of the homeland] … is a means of establishing the Divine authority within it so that it becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam, which is then to be carriedthroughout the earth to the whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.” -- Sayyid Qutb, 1955

13. GWOT – Who is the Enemy? • The enemy consists of various extremist Islamic groups that espouse the use of violence to achieve their ideological aims – al Qaeda being the greatest threat to the US homeland today. Characteristics are: • No state, no uniform, lives among the population • Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend Islam • Even support by 1% of the Muslim population would equate to about 13 million “enemies” • While we view his beliefs as dangerously misguided…. • He is absolutely committed to his cause • His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits • He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict How has the enemy become so dangerous?

14. Global War on Terror Perceived Grievances Information Technology Weapons Proliferation • War in Iraq / Afghanistan • Belief USA is fighting a war against Islam • Palestine, Israel • Detainee Abuse • IEDs • Suicide Bombers • Missiles • Nuclear • Chemical/Biological • Internet • News Media • Satellite T.V. • Cell Phones Mass effects capture media attention Populace that listens and supports their message Ability to transmit message Increasing ambitions coupled with increasing capabilities give extremists an unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications.

15. Global War on Terror • Al Qaeda exemplifies the current manifestation of violent extremists • Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of Al Qaeda’s political ideology: • Quran-based authority to govern • Liberation of the homelands • Liberation of the human being So how does this fit into Al Qaeda’s objectives??

16. Al Qaeda’s Plan “We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad for the sake of God.” -- Osama bin Laden • Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula • Objective 2: Remove secular governments within region • Objective 3: Eliminate Israel, and purge Jewish and Christian influence • Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical significance “Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe, Africa and Asia.” (SecDef Rumsfeld, 2005)

17. Objective 1: Expel America and Establish an Islamic Authority in Iraq Iraq has become the focus of the enemy’s effort. If they win in Iraq, they have a base from which to expand their terror… Attacks against the West Continue • IF America departs Iraq prior to sufficient Iraqi capacity to provide security: • Insurgents step up attacks against the government and make religious claims for regime change. • Extremists overthrow the democratic government, replacing it with a Taliban-like regime. • UN issues a resolution, but does not commit to action…US doesn’t re-engage in Iraq. “The whole world is watching this war and the two adversaries… [Iraq] has a very rare opportunity to come out of the subservience and enslavement to the West...” – Osamabin Laden (2004)

18. Objective 2: Remove Secular Governments, Replace with Islamic Theocracies Attacks against the West continue Would Israel join the conflict? Would the U.S. re-enter the conflict? • Extremists export their message and terrorist acts throughout the Middle East. • Violence and extremist ideology undermine moderate governments of Jordan, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt. • Moderate governments collapse, replaced by Taliban-like regimes. • Baghdad becomes the capital of the Caliphate. The revived Caliphate now turns its attention to the destruction of Israel…

19. Objective 3: Destruction of Israel Might nuclear weapons be employed? Attacks against the West continue At what point does the U.S. return to Middle East? Allies? • Attacks against Israel intensify. • United Nations issues resolution to stand down. • Caliphate gains support within the Muslim world… • Caliphate attacks Israel Extremists now poised to re-establish the historical Caliphate

20. Objective 4: Re-Establish the Historical Caliphate • The Caliphate calls for an uprising within the remaining Islamic states to join the restoration. • Remaining Islamic states collapse from within. In 900 C.E., the Caliphate included most of present day Spain and portions of France and Italy. By 1500 C.E., the expanse of the Caliphate included most of Africa, the Middle East, much of SW Asia, and SE Europe.

21. Global War on Terror • The United States cannot be defeated militarily. Our enemy knows this, but consider: • The world’s most dangerous people potentially have some of the world’s most dangerous weapons– nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons– and every inclination to employ them • Terror attacks can weaken global economy • Continued casualties may weaken national resolve and even affect our elections • Our traditional allies prefer accommodation • A “clash of civilizations” or … • Force our economy into a recession? Depression? • Create political pressure for isolationism? • Deter us from necessary action? • Force us to reach accommodation… Peace in our time?

22. Global War on Terror • What are the enemy’s vulnerabilities? • Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic extremism groups like Al Qaeda profess • Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural and religious differences • Repressive Taliban-like regimes unappealing to most Muslims • No military capability to expand their fight beyond terrorist tactics Radical Islamic groups have shown themselves to be enemies of the West, and of the very people they claim to support—Iraq, Islam, and humanity.

23. Global War on Terror • Implications of failure in this war are high: • If the insurgency overthrows the Iraqi government, US global leadership is damaged, emboldening our enemy, who then have a resource rich safe haven • Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger conflict later—at enormous costs! • Much of the worlds energy resources held hostage • Millions of people repressed and isolated from growth and prosperity • Extremists with resources to continue attacks • Countries isolated from a global trading economy • Other religious beliefs repressed • American security and national interests jeopardized

24. Religious Conflicts • Religion can be a powerful force in warfare by reinforcing ethnicity in making a conflict more intractable and cruel • Not usually the only reason for conflict, but frequently plays a pivotal role (i.e., Shia-Sunni conflict) • Share fundamental beliefs/practices • Difference originally political, involving who should lead after Muhammad’s death

25. Religious Conflicts • Despite religious conflicts, many similarities exist between Christianity, Judaism, and Islam… • Are monotheistic (believe in one god) • Descendents of Abraham • Accept concept of sin, the value of prayer, and necessity of repentance • Find meaning in life through deep, personal relationship with God “The problem to be faced is how to combine loyalty to one’s own tradition with reverence for different traditions.” – Abraham Joshua Heschel

26. Religious Conflicts • How has religion become the crucible for violence? • Belief of belonging to a chosen people • Belief in aggressive missionarism • Religion as symbolic structure of conflict • Religion can become the invoked ideology or “social cleavage along which other struggles become mapped” • Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq– Political struggle or spiritual?? Religion may be the vehicle for the expression of deeply and widely held social aspirations.

27. Ethnic Conflicts • Ethnic groups usually united by common cultural, behavioral, or religious practices • Ethnicity can be a powerful unifier…or a source of great conflict: • Christian Armenians in Turkey • Stalin’s purges and forced famine • Holocaust • Khmer Rouge • Rwandan genocide • Bosnia-Herzegovina • Sudan

28. Ethnic Conflicts • Definitions: • Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable” population from a given territory due to religion, ethnicity, political, strategic or ideological factors • Genocide: Deliberate and systematic destruction of a group of people because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race Intent differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create an ethnically homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain group of people).

29. Ethnic Conflicts • According to the UN Commission of Experts, “ethnic cleansing” covers a host of criminal offenses, including: • Use of human shields • Mass murder • Mistreatment of civilian prisoners • Destruction of cultural property • Individuals enabling “ethnic cleansing” face criminal prosecution for crimes against humanity, etc.

30. Summary • Transnational Issues • Globalization • North vs. South • Global War on Terror (GWOT) • Religious and Ethnic Factors • Religious Conflicts • Ethnic Conflicts

31. Questions?