Setting the World Stage

1. Setting the World Stage 2Lt Baldwin 2Lt Carroll 2Lt Devries 2Lt Elliott 2Lt Krug 2Lt Mealey 2Lt Moore 2Lt Pochron 2Lt Wright Curriculum Area Manager—Warfare Studies/International Security Studies

2. What is our context? • Three competing ideologies • Fascism • Communism • Democracy • If democracy remains as the predominant ideology,… why do extremism, uncertainty, and violence still flourish?

3. Overview • Religious and Ethnic Factors • Religious Conflicts • Ethnic Conflicts • Transnational Issues • Globalization • North vs South • Global War on Terror (GWOT)

4. What holds people together? • More than merely national titles • Often based in cultural roots • Ethnicity • Religion How do each of these factors relate to conflict?

5. Ethnic Conflicts Definitions: • Ethnic cleansing: Expulsion of an “undesirable” population from a given territory due to religion, ethnicity, political, strategic, or ideological factors • Genocide: Deliberate and systematic destruction of a group of people because of their ethnicity, nationality, religion, or race Intent differentiates ethnic cleansing (a desire to create ethnic homogeneity) from genocide (primary goal is the destruction of a certain group of people).

6. Ethnic Cleansing and Genocide: Not Just a Historical Problem

7. Religious Conflicts • How has religion become the crucible for violence? • Belief of belonging to a chosen people • Belief in aggressive/forced evangelism • Religion as symbolic structure of conflict • Often, religion becomes the vehicle for the expression of deeply and widely held social aspirations • Religion can become the invoked ideology or “…social cleavage along which other struggles become mapped” • Example: Sunni-Shia conflict in Iraq—Political or religious struggle??

8. Connecting the Dots • What’s the connection between religion and conflict? • What’s the connection between ethnicity and conflict? • Both of these aspects of culture can unite and divide! So, what happens when a culture is faced with outside influences?

9. Globalization Definitions: • “[The] integration of markets, nation-states, and technologies…enabling individuals, corporations and nation-states to reach around the world farther, faster, deeper…than ever before…” • “The compression of the world and the intensification of consciousness of the world as a whole…concrete global interdependence...” Bottom line: Globalization is a widening, deepening, and speeding up of interconnectedness in all aspects of contemporary social life from the cultural to the criminal, the financial to the spiritual.

10. Dimensions of Globalization • Economic • Environmental • Cultural • Political Each can be analyzed separately, but they often have powerful interconnections But is globalization good or bad?

11. Globalization • Many view all globalization as pro-American • Fear the dominance of Western ideas, culture, institutions, and power • “Rogues, Renegades, and Outlaws” • Blame United States for their problems—easy way to divert attention from actual cause of problems • “Have-nots” • Poverty makes them vulnerable to extremism Our adversaries see emerging global trends as threatening their traditions and way of life

12. Globalization • Our adversaries believe they must derail the new emerging world order or be run over by it • View United States as leader in shaping this • Can’t match our political, economic, military, and cultural power • Resort to asymmetric approaches • Benefit from “ungoverned spaces” (i.e., Western Pakistan, Indonesia, Africa, etc.)

13. North vs South • The Cold War/East-West conflict is gone, replaced by a “North-South Estrangement” • Economic rift between the “Haves” (North) and the “Have-Nots” (South) widens • Consider: • At least 80% of humanity live on less than $10/day • Almost half the world—over 3 billion people—live on less than $2.50/day

14. North vs South • Consider: • More than 2 billion children in the world… Nearly half live in poverty, and most lack adequate shelter, potable water, and health services • Global poverty trends improving, but sub-Saharan Africa poverty levels are rising The horrors of extreme poverty lead to hopelessness, which fuels extremism—and often, extremism breeds terrorism.

15. Global War on Terror Militant extremism isn’t new… “Those who study jihad will understand why Islam wants to conquer the whole world. All the countries conquered by Islam, or to be conquered in the future, will be marked for everlasting salvation. Islam says:Kill all the unbelievers just as they would kill you all!” -- Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, 1942 “[The defense of the homeland]…is a means of establishing the Divine authority within it so that it becomes the headquarters for the movement of Islam, which is then to be carriedthroughout the earth to the whole of mankind, as the object of this religion is all humanity and its sphere of action is the whole earth.” -- SayyidQutb, 1955

16. GWOT - Who is the enemy? • Various Islamic extremist groups (al Qaeda being the greatest threat to the United States) : • No state; no uniform; lives among the population • Believes religion is under attack and calls upon Muslims to defend Islam • Vast numbers—Even support by 1% of the worldwide Muslim population would equate to about 13 million “enemies” • While we view the enemy’s beliefs as dangerously misguided…. • He is absolutely committed to his cause • His religious ideology successfully attracts recruits • He has a sufficient population base from which to protract the conflict How has the enemy become so dangerous?

17. Global War on Terror • Al Qaeda exemplifies the current manifestation of violent extremists • Al Zawahiri identified “three foundations” of Al Qaeda’s political ideology: • Quran-based authority to govern • Liberation of the homelands • Liberation of the human being This ideology is the foundation of Al Qaeda’s overall plan

18. Information Technology Perceived Grievances Weapons Proliferation • Internet • News Media • Satellite TV • Cell Phones • IEDs • Suicide Bombers • Missiles • Nuclear • Chemical/Biological • War in Iraq/Afghanistan • Belief US is fighting a war against Islam • Palestine/Israel issue • Detainee Abuse Populace willing to listen to and support their message Media attention given to mass effects of attacks Ability to transmit message more effectively + + = How Have Islamic Extremists Become So Dangerous? The equation for danger: An unprecedented ability to affect world events with global ramifications

19. Al Qaeda’s Plan “We are seeking to incite the Islamic Nation to rise up to liberate its land and to conduct Jihad for the sake of God.”—Osama bin Laden • Objective 1: Expel American influence from Iraq and the Arabian Peninsula • Objective 2: Remove secular governments within the region • Objective 3: Eliminate Israel and purge Jewish and Christian influence • Objective 4: Expand the Muslim empire to historical significance “Iraq would serve as the base of a new Islamic caliphate to extend throughout the Middle East, and which would threaten legitimate governments in Europe, Africa, and Asia.” (Former SecDefRumsfeld, 2005)

20. Global War on Terror Implications of failure in this war are high • If radical Islamist groups are successful, then… • US global leadership is damaged and our enemy is emboldened • They have a resource-rich, safe haven • Failure to stop our enemy now means a larger conflict later, and at an enormous cost!

21. The enemy has vulnerabilities: The Good News • Monolithic view of Islam underestimates cultural and religious differences • Majority of Muslims don’t believe in the Islamic extremism that groups like Al Qaeda profess • Repressive Taliban-like regimes unappealing to most Muslims • No military capability to expand their fight beyond terrorist tactics Understanding these vulnerabilities will put us in a better position to win the Global War on Terror

22. Setting the World Stage Questions?

23. Summary • Religious and Ethnic Factors • Religious Conflicts • Ethnic Conflicts • Transnational Issues • Globalization • North vs South • Global War on Terror (GWOT)