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The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results and Changes for 2008

The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results and Changes for 2008. National Hurricane Center Graphical TWO Team: Jamie Rhome Dan Brown James Franklin Chris Lauer Chris Juckins Chris Landsea. User Feedback from 2007 Experimental Phase.

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The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results and Changes for 2008

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  1. The Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (GTWO): 2007 Results and Changes for 2008 National Hurricane Center Graphical TWO Team: Jamie Rhome Dan Brown James Franklin Chris Lauer Chris Juckins Chris Landsea

  2. User Feedback from 2007 Experimental Phase • Over 2800 total forms of written feedback including; • 2207 surveys • 1472 surveys during the first 2 months (7/15-9/15) of the experimental period  • ~600 emails to the webmaster • ~5.6 million total web hits • 91% Atlantic • 9% Pacific • In terms of web hits, the GTWO was among the most popular products and surpassed the text TWO within the first 30 days of its launch on July 15th.

  3. Distribution of Respondent Affiliation 62% of the respondents were individuals

  4. Survey Highlights • 98% of respondents that provided an answer feel the GTWO is an appropriate NWS product/service. • 8.9: average technical rating (accuracy, timeliness, etc) on a scale from 1-10. • Two-thirds gave a 9 or 10 rating • 9.6: average rating regarding ease of use and interpretation • Three-fourths gave a 10 rating • Nearly 90% gave a 9 or 10 rating • Two-thirds of respondents use the product daily or several times per day.

  5. Verification of 2007 Genesis Probabilities

  6. Verification by Categorical Bins Atlantic Forecast RangeExpected %Verifying# of Forecasts 0-10% (Low) 5 3 389 20-50% (Medium) 28 18 263 60-100% (High) 71 66 53 Note the large separation between categories East Pacific Forecast RangeExpected %Verifying# of Forecasts 0-10% (Low) 6 6 179 20-50% (Medium) 26 47 162 60-100% (High) 70 90 29 • Categories for the 2008 Graphical TWO • -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% • -Medium-probability of genesis from 20-50% • -High-probability of genesis greater than 50%

  7. Atlantic Genesis Forecasts 48 h Prior to TC Formation Approximate Hours Prior to Genesis *DSA issued outside of Hurricane Season

  8. East Pacific Genesis Forecasts 48 h Prior to TC Formation Approximate Hours Prior to Genesis

  9. Changes for 2008 • Move the issuance times of the operational text Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) and the experimental graphical TWO for both the Atlantic and East Pacific basins to synoptic time. • Increase the availability of the graphical TWO from two times daily to four times daily. • Include 3-tiered categorical genesis forecasts (color-coding) in the experimental graphical TWO. • -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% • -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% • -High-probability of genesis greater than 50% -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50% -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50% -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50% -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50% -Low-probability of genesis less than 20% -Medium-probability of genesis between 20-50% -High-probability of genesis greater than 50%

  10. New 2008 TWO and GTWO Issuance Times Shown in Yellow with Old 2007 Issuance Times Shown in Orange indicates approximate arrival time of numerical model guidance 8 PM EDT/ 7 PM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO 2 AM EDT/ 1 AM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO 8 AM EDT/ 7 AM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO 2 PM EDT/1 PM EST Atlantic and Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO 0000 UTC 1800 UTC 1200 UTC 0600 UTC 10:30PM ET Atlantic TWO and experimental GTWO 10 PM PT Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO 4 PM PT Pacific TWO 5:30PM ET Atlantic TWO 10 AM PT Pacific TWO and experimental GTWO 4 AM PT Pacific TWO 11:30AM ET Atlantic TWO and experimental GTWO 5:30AM ET Atlantic TWO

  11. 2008 GTWO • http://hurricanes.gov/gtwo-example1 • http://hurricanes.gov/gtwo-example2l

  12. Benefits of Proposed Changes • Enhances the level of service provided to our users including: • Increasing availability of the graphical TWO from 2 times daily to 4 times daily. • Categorical genesis forecasts added to the graphical TWO. • Allows better use of latest information and provides more timely information to users. • Previously, the Atlantic TWOs were based on global model guidance that was 9 hours old; this latency will be reduced to 3 hours with the new issuance time. • Change in issuance times allow better use of products. • The current issuance times for the Atlantic TWO does not allow the information to be easily incorporated into the 5pm or 10pm local evening news programming. • The current TWO schedule releases the Atlantic TWO after NWS WFO’s have already prepared and sent their forecasts.

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