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2013 TROPICAL OUTLOOK

2013 TROPICAL OUTLOOK. Kevin Scasny, Meteorologist, US Fish & Wildlife Service. Denver S. Ingram, Meteorologist, National Park Service. Summary of the 2012 Season Provided by the National Hurricane Center. Named Events: 19 Tropical Storms: 9 Hurricanes: 10 CAT3 or greater: 2

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2013 TROPICAL OUTLOOK

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  1. 2013 TROPICAL OUTLOOK Kevin Scasny, Meteorologist, US Fish & Wildlife Service Denver S. Ingram, Meteorologist, National Park Service

  2. Summary of the 2012 Season Provided by the National Hurricane Center. Named Events: 19 Tropical Storms: 9 Hurricanes: 10 CAT3 or greater: 2 Strongest: Michael & Sandy at 115 mph. Highest Cost: Sandy ($50 Billion, or more) Highest Death Toll: Sandy (72 in the US, 147 total) Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/summary_atlc_2012.pdf

  3. Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2012.png

  4. SCASNY 2012 RISK OUTLOOK Cat 2 SANDYSEP 22-30 TS BERYL TS DEBBY TS ALBERTO CAT1 ISAAC = ACTIAL LANDFALLS

  5. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 29-APR-2012 Taken from: http://weather.unisys.com/archive/sst/sst_anom-120429.gif

  6. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly 01-MAY-2013 Taken from: http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sst_anom_new.gif

  7. Conducive for Tropical Storms Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

  8. Note the Warm North Atlantic, the cold mid Atlantic, and the warm tropics. • Conducive for High pressure over New England, low pressure over the Caribbean. Increased instability in a low shear environment is conducive for tropical development. • Large Atlantic High off New England coast helps to steer tropical storms toward East Coast landfalls.

  9. Sea Surface Temperatures April 13, 2013 to May 13, 2013 Taken from: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/intramsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif

  10. PACIFIC NORTH AMERICAN OSCILLATION (PNA) (EASTERN PACIFIC-WESTERN US) POSTIVE BIAS INDICATED FOR 2013 NEGATIVE PHASE MORE ATLANTIC RECURVES POSITIVE PHASE MORE LANDFALLS

  11. MAJOR HURRICANE ACTIVITY 1851-2010 WARM AMO ALSO VERY STRONG - QBO CORE OF COLD AMO MUCH WEAKER QBO WARM AMO ALSO STRONG -QBO

  12. 1950s All Categories

  13. 1950s All Tropical Storm Tracks

  14. 1950s CAT3, CAT4, CAT5, Tracks

  15. Forecast of Dr. Klotzback & Dr. Gray, Colorado State University. April 10, 2013 Named Storms: 18 (9) Hurricanes: 9 (6) Major Hurricanes: 4 (2) Forecast based on warm Atlantic temperature anomalies and a low probability of El Niño. (Strong westerlies, more shear) Risk of Landfall Forecast: April 10, 2013 and average over the last century. Entire East Coast: 72% (52%) East Coast including Florida: 48% (31%) Gulf Coast Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, TX 47% (30%) One Major Caribbean Tracking Hurricane: 61% (42%) Probabilities related to Puerto Rico (within 50 miles) Named storm: 50% Hurricane: 26% Major Hurricane: 8% Taken from: http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2013/apr2013/apr2013.pdf

  16. La Niña tends to enhance tropical activity • El Niño tends to reduce or suppress tropical activity. El Niño/La Niña: Forecast to stay mostly neutral through December 2013.

  17. A LOOK AT MAJOR LANDFALL TRENDS DURING A SIMILAR ATMOSPHERIC PATTERNS

  18. Summary of 2013 Forecast Results from NCSU (based on 18 climate indices) Based on a log-linear regression model, they selected the most relevant predictors to determine their forecast. Taken from: http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.pdf

  19. Some Items of Note from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) • Tropical Weather Outlook will now cover 5 days (previously 48 hours) • 48 hour probabilistic potential for tropical cyclone development will be given in 10% increments. • In July/August, probabilities of development will be given in the 5 day period for areas of disturbed weather. • Error cones will be smaller, see table below. Circle radius is determined statistically so that 2/3rds of the historical forecast errors over the previous 5 years fall within the circle. Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130405_pa_2013productChanges.pdf

  20. Some Items of Note from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) (cont.) • Storm surge products will be available whenever a hurricane watch or hurricane warning is in effect for any portion of the US Coast. • GIS format products are still available at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gis • NHC will be working behind the scenes to extend tropical cyclone track and intensity forecast out to 7 days. (in house, not public during 2013) • Beginning May 15, 2013, a section of the Tropical Weather Discussion will be devoted to Hispaniola. • Tropical Cyclone watches and warnings will be issued and remain in effect even if the system become post-tropical. • Bulletins will continue to be issued by NHC during the post-tropical stage. (motivated by Sandy) Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20130405_pa_2013productChanges.pdf

  21. Forecast by Kevin Scasny

  22. 2013 Tropical Forecast Talking Points • In 2013, we believe that we will see long tracking (Cape Verde) type events. • Decadal threat remains very high for the East Coast. • Risk for CAT3, CAT4, and CAT5 storms is higher than the risk for CAT1 or CAT2. • Strong signal for activity during the peak of the tropical season (Aug/Sep) • Puerto Rico and US Virgin Islands potentially affected by one or more events. • Risk for land falling storms along the East Coast; particularly South FL as well as NC/SC/VA/MD/DE. • Second area of risk from about Corpus Christi southward into northern Mexico. • Potential for additional Sandy-like events affecting New England, especially if a ribbon of warmer than normal water is in place from Virginia northward.

  23. JUN DEVELOPMENT CLIMATOLOGY JUN THREAT

  24. Taken from: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml

  25. Questions?? Presentation available for download from: http://gacc.nifc.gov/sacc/predictive/weather/2013_TROPICAL_OUTLOOK.ppt Denver S. Ingram Denver_Ingram@nps.gov 678-320-3008 Kevin Scasny Kevin_Scasny@fws.gov 678-320-3009

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