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AFWA WG-CSAB Update Spring 2012 Dr. John Zapotocny

AFWA WG-CSAB Update Spring 2012 Dr. John Zapotocny. Overview. Current Operations Backup for COPC Partners DMSP Status Modeling WRF UK Model Ensembles HPC Configuration Initiatives GSI-WRF Integration Aerosol Modeling AFW-WEBS. Backup for COPC Partners.

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AFWA WG-CSAB Update Spring 2012 Dr. John Zapotocny

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  1. AFWA WG-CSAB UpdateSpring 2012Dr. John Zapotocny

  2. Overview • Current Operations • Backup for COPC Partners • DMSP Status • Modeling • WRF • UK Model • Ensembles • HPC Configuration • Initiatives • GSI-WRF Integration • Aerosol Modeling • AFW-WEBS

  3. Backup for COPC Partners NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center Backup provided by 15 OWS (Scott AFB, IL) SPC real world backups in past year - 1 AWC real world backups in past year – 0 (4 stand-by instances due to AWC power issues) Successful backup exercises – 6 (4 for AWC, 2 for SPC; severe thunderstorm watch issued/verified during last SPC exercise) Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 1 NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Backup provided by 2 WS (Offutt AFB, NE) Real world backups in past year – 4 Successful backup exercises – 2

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  8. Global NWPUnited Kingdom Met Office Model • UKMO Model at AFWA • Initialization grids obtained from Exeter • Model runs 4x/day at 20 km resolution to 240 hours • Provides initial/lateral boundary conditions for WRF regional runs • Standard products available via AFW-WEBS • Gridded data sharing limited to DoD & allies

  9. Ensemble Modeling • Global Ensemble 2x/day • NUOPC multi-model inputs (GFS, GEM, NOGAPS) forecasts to 240 hours • WRF-based Global & Regional Ensembles 2x/day • Global to 144 hours • 12 km Nests to 48 hours • 4 km Nests to 24 hours • 10 members using varying physics and lower boundary conditions • Training & Outreach • Working with forecasters & decision makers • Formal training via CBT and COMET Probability Products: QPF Thresholds, Precip Type, Snowfall, Cloud Cover, Lightning, Hail Size, Dust Lofting Potential, Severe TRW, Blizzard, Wind Gusts, Ceiling/Visibility, Wind Chill, Heat Index, Haboob Threat

  10. WRF EnsemblesGlobal & Regional Global 40 km WRF Ensembles 12 km WRF Ensemble Regions Northern Hemisphere 50 knot wind gust probability at 19Z 58 knots observed at 1911Z Black contour = where individual ensemble member forecasted 40 knots sustained Tropical Stripe 4 km SWA WRF Ensemble Southern Hemisphere

  11. AFWA HPC System As of Mar 2012 UNCLASSIFIED Prod8: Spec Models/Ensembles 1280 Cores 12.5 TFlps Prod9: UM/WRF/Ensembles 4800 Cores 51.0 TFlps High Performance Network Dev8: Dev/Test 192 Cores 2.0 TFlps R&D 256 Cores 2.5 TFlps Computing Capacity: Unclassified: 68 TFlps Classified: 23 TFlps Total: 91 TFlps Power : Available: 1,225 Kw HPC Usage: 308 Kw CLASSIFIED SProd8: Spec Models/WRF 576 Cores 9.0 TFlops SProd9: WRF 1.67km 1344 Cores 14.0 TFlops ACN

  12. HPC – PROD 9Projected Utilization Summer ‘12 4800 Cores GCW-P GCW-P Ensemble CONUS GCW-E N.H./S.H. Ensemble CONUS GCW-E N.H./S.H. 3600 GCW-P GCW-E Tropics GCW-P GCW-E Tropics 2400 1200 • 3DWF: 24 Cores/hr • WRF-V (Volcano): 96 Cores/hr • Re-WRF: 144 Cores/hr 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z OWS Production Cycle as of Oct 2010 • Global ensemble: 10 members • GCW-P (PAIS): 20km, 57 levels • N.H./S.H. (dashed) • Tropical (solid)

  13. HPC – SPROD 9Projected Utilization Summer 2012 4800 • Ensemble Characteristics • “Design-to-fit • 10 members • 4 km domain resolution (Area: 400 x 400) • 48 h forecast length Cores 3600 2400 1300 1200 Ens Ens Ens Ens Ens Ens Ens Ens 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z

  14. HPC – PROD 8Projected Utilization Summer ‘12 4800 • Ensembles consist of 10 members • Ensemble solution is “design-to-fit” • All domains at 4 km Cores 3600 2400 1300 1200 00Z 06Z 12Z 18Z 00Z • PROD 5/7 support contract ends 1 Mar 2012

  15. Initiatives

  16. GSI-WRF Integration • Establish working GSI prototype on AFWA HPC • Currently running on Dev 8 • Producing a 48-hr forecast at 12Z cycle • 6-hr init from 6Z cycle • Full DA for 6Z and 12Z run • GSI based NH WRF with initial satellite data assimilation • Initially planned: COSMIC and AMSU-A -- completed • Additional: HIRS3 and HIRS4 – completed • Imminent: WINDSAT • Actively working: AIRS, IASI, and ASCAT

  17. GSI Integration Schedule IOC Working Prototype WRFVAR/GSI Comparison Configure Parallel Runs Conduct Parallel Runs Statistical Analysis DTC Community Capability Cost Analysis Community Funding Decision Phase 2 Decision GSI Operational Transition Optimize AFWA Pre-Processing Configure Code for ops efficiency GSI Sustainment Participate in GSI Review Committee Establish New Satellite Data Flows Phase 1 Dec 11 – Mar 12 Apr 12 – Fall 2012 Apr 12 – 15 May 12 15 May 12 – 1 Aug 12 Aug 12 – Sep 12 Mar 12 – May 12 Mar 12 – May 12 Sep 12 Sep 12 Phase 2 Sep 12 – Jan 13 Sep 12 – Jan 13 Sep 12 – Jan 13 LEGEND Major Activity Planned/In progress Complete Jan 12 Mar 12 May 12 Jul 12 Sep 12 Nov 12 Jan 13 Mar 13 May 13 Jul 13 Sep 13

  18. Aerosol ModelingDust Transport Application & WRF-Chem • DTA (GFS & WRF based) • GFS DTA ½ degree resolution, 4 cycles/day out to 72 hours, 2 cycles/day out to 180 hours • WRF DTA 15 km resolution, 4 cycles/day out to 48 hours • Dust concentration and Dust visibility products • Both use Ginoux source regions • WRF-Chem • AFWA is developing WRF-Chem based aerosol forecasts (including dust) with transition to Ops planned in CY2013 • WRF-chemsimulates the emission, turbulent mixing, transport, transformation, and fate of trace gases and aerosols. The WRF Atmospheric Chemistry Working Group is guiding the development of WRF-chem.

  19. AFW-WEBS UpdateRecent Improvements • Google Earth/Maps • Selective 5m resolution over Google Premium 15m dataset • Global 90m resolution terrain w/ HRTE in AFG • Add’l base maps—Imagery/Map/Chart • Will continue to add base map options • North America roads now available • Global planned • First instance of OWS FITL products (USAFE) • Other regions planned for global product • Data format conflicts being worked • Global Ensemble (GEPS) • WRF 1.67km/3DWF windows • Initial polar-orbiter imagery for SWA • MODIS/DMSP/NOAA/METOP https://weather.af.mil 19

  20. AFW-WEBSUp Next • Transition from JAAWIN • Port over remaining capabilities • Robust improved user interface • Increase METSAT resolution • Degraded due to database capacity • Capacity now tripled • Global polar-orbiter imagery • WxSnapshot • Interactive site information • Skew-T, meteogram, 5-day, Stoplight • Space weather • Hemispheric WRF • Mesoscale ensembles • Single-site radar application • Robust low-bandwidth capability 20

  21. Questions?

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