AFWA Site Update WG-CSAB Spring 2010 John Zapotocny 7 April 2010

1. AFWA Site UpdateWG-CSABSpring 2010John Zapotocny7 April 2010 Approved for Public Release

2. Overview • Operational Backup • DMSP Spacecraft Status • Developmental Initiatives • WRF FOC • Ensemble Modeling • Dust Forecasting • Space Weather Modeling

3. Operational Backup NCEP - Storm Prediction Center/Aviation Weather Center 15 OWS provides primary short term back-up for SPC and AWC Numerous Tests One real world back-up for SPC in October 2009 Space Weather Prediction Center (bi-directional backup) One 20-minute evacuation covered by SWPC in 2010 48-hour COOP Requirements, key products, customers and needed redundant data/comm paths identified Warning Dissemination Backup capability delivered to AFWA/SWPC Beyond 48-hr COOP NCEP will provide alternate facility NLT FY11. AFWA will have access to this site if SWPC is disabled NESDIS – Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) 2 real world backups/1 scheduled backup

4. DMSP Spacecraft StatusMar 2010 Slide removed in public release version

5. WRF FOC • WRF ARW—transitioned to full operation capability • Near 1 for 1 replacement with MM5 45-, 15-, 5-km windows • 57 Vertical Levels • 10 mb model top • New Kain-Fritsch Convection Scheme • WRF Single Moment- 5 Microphysics • YonseiUniv PBL • Coupled to Unified NOAH LSM • 3DVAR data assimilation system

6. WRF FOCOperational Theaters – Mar 2010 Slide removed in public release version

7. Ensemble Forecasting • Global and mesoscale ensembles in development mode • Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) based on GFS, NOGAPS, GEM ensemble members • 2 cycles per day • 240 hour forecast length, 6 hourly output • Domain cut-outs based on warfighter feedback • Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) based on WRF and SREF ensemble members • WRF—2 cycles per day per theater, 4 domains, offset 6hrs • SREF—4 cycles per day • SREF and WRF merged twice per day for CONUS only • First ever multi-center, multi-model mesoscale ensemble • Contingency domain rapidly deployable—e.g., Haiti

8. AFWA Ensemble Domains • 12 km & 4 km grids • hourly output • 40 km grids • 3 hourly output 12 km, 48 hours 12 km, 48 hours 40 km, 132 hours 12 km, 48 hours 4 km, 30 hours

9. Ensemble Webpage https://weather.afwa.af.mil/host_home/DNXM/JEFS/jefs.html Available products for global (GEPS) and mesoscale (MEPS): Precipitation Amount Precipitation Type Snow Amount Cloud Cover Lightning Dust Lofting Severe Weather Blizzard Surface Wind Gust Visibility Wind Chill Heat Index Smoke Trapping HaboobIndex Sig Tornado Parameter Realtime verification also available on webpage

10. Ensemble ForecastingMilitary Application • Strength of AFWA ensembles effort is cutting-edge exploitation of ensemble data • Close collaboration with users to create algorithms to generate actionable information for forecasters • Algorithms still being refined and evaluated by users and developers Prototype Dust Joint Probability Product 12-h Forecast 10 10

11. Ensemble ModelingMesoscale Ensemble Predicts Large Scale Iraq Dust Event 12 km MEPS; 30-h forecast 4 km MEPS; 24-h forecast valid 6 hrs prior

12. Dust Forecasting • DTA-GFS • Uses ½ degree GFS data • 2 cycles out to 72 hours; 2 cycles out to 180 hours • Affords unique strategic planning capability • Dust concentration and Dust visibility products • Africa, SWA, and East Asia; 1 deg Ginoux (like DTA-MM5) • Operational – Jan 10 • DTA-WRF • Delivered version uses 15 km WRF data out 48 hours; SWA only • In house version uses 45 km WRF data out to 72 hours; SWA, Africa, East Asia - prototype • Both incorporate modified ¼ degree Ginoux database • 15 km SWA operational Nov 09; 45 km products operational Aug 10

13. Dust Forecasting DTA Verification • Early DTA verification study established relationship between concentration & visibility • Later added as DTA product • Subjective verification technique • Area divided into grid • Hit/no hit evaluated • Verification ongoing – visibility restriction due to dust added to model metrics • Probability of detecting (POD) a dust storm beyond 24 hours is 50-80% 13

14. Dust Forecasting DTA Visibility Product https://weather.afwa.af.mil/jaawin/eevents/dustTransport.jsp?region=SW_ASIA 14

15. Dust Forecasting Soil Moisture Improvements After soil moisture correction Before soil moisture correction Click picture to toggle 15 15

16. Dust Forecasting10 Mar 2009 Event - Riyadh, Saudi Arabia DTA visibility forecast cycle - roughly 48 hours prior to event

17. Dust Forecasting Way Ahead • Dust Transport Application • High resolution (0.25 degree and smaller) dust source region • Development of a dynamic dust source region database • Develop DTA-based dust ensemble products • Collaboration w/ Navy (NRL & FNMOC) • COAMPS dust model products • Improve DTA to re-loft dust that has been deposited • Initial work being accomplished by JHU-APL • TAKE-AWAYS: • Improved dust source region database • More accurate dust forecasts for the warfighters • Better forecast timing for event termination in the future • Dynamically updated joint dust source region database (planned) 17

18. Space Weather Modeling • GAIM – Full-Physics upgrade (GAIM-FP) due from USU in CY 12 • Continue to assimilate new data and make enhancements • Higher resolution, greater accuracy, and larger vertical domain • SAA model delivered from JHU-APL to support classified ops • Adding ensemble mode to solar wind/ionosphere model (SWMS) • Partnerships to advance space weather support • NASA – Helped CCMC refine iSWA to serve AFWA forecasters • AFRL – SWFL will bring state-of-the-science models into the ops environment to speed transition • NOAA – SWPT will transition new models to ops for SWPC and AFWA • Upgrading HF comm support with advanced SWPC model 18

19. Questions