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Wargaming and Capability development planning

Wargaming and Capability development planning. COL Dr. Josef MELICHAR josef.melichar@unob.cz Department of Strategic Management in Defence Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies UNIVERSITY of DEFENCE in Brno. Background Tank troops logistics

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Wargaming and Capability development planning

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  1. Wargaming and Capabilitydevelopmentplanning COL Dr. Josef MELICHAR josef.melichar@unob.cz Department ofStrategic Management in Defence Centre for Security and MilitaryStrategicStudies UNIVERSITY of DEFENCE in Brno COL Dr. Josef MELICHAR

  2. Background Tank troopslogistics CIMIC, PSYOPS, INFOOPS: 2000 – tillnow OperationsAssessment– 2009 – 2012 (2015) Operationalexperience in theBalkans, Afghanistan, Africa 1997 – tillnow - numberofassignments in multinationalenvironment Teachingmultinationalaudiences Currentemployment and occupation: AssistantProfessor Center for Security and MilitaryStrategicStudies, Defence University in Brno Prognostics Risk Management StrategicAnalysis CapabilityBasedPlanning INFOOPS, CIMIC, PSYOPS OperationsPlanning and Assessment, Operations Design DefencePlanning OperationalConcepts COL Dr. Josef MELICHAR

  3. Disclaimer The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the presenter and do not necessarily reflect the official views of the Center for Security and Military Strategic Studies, the University ofDefense, the Ministry of Defense, or the Czech Republic Government.

  4. Agenda: • Introduction • Wargaming and its’ exploitaition possibilities • Capabilitydevelopment planning • Wargaming Capabilities development • Q&A

  5. Wargaming • Itisattractive • Itchallengestheplayers • It‘smotivating- Youcanwin • It‘scompetitive • Itcanrevealnew, unforeseen problems and inovativesolutions to theproblems • It‘sfun! It‘s a GAME

  6. Wargaming and its‘ exploitaitionpossibilities • Training • Currentplanning (CoAanalysis) • Futureplanning (Capabilitydevelopment) • Education OUR FOCUS

  7. Capabilititydevelopmentplanning • PlanningforFuture • Uncertainty and Risks • Possibleunexpecteddevelopments • Strategicsurprises Expectthe UNEXPECTED

  8. WargamingCapabilitydevelopment • IdentifyrequiredCapabilities • Developalternatives • AssessCapabilitydevelopmentalternatives • CostvsBudget • AchievingtheEndstate

  9. WargamingCapabilitydevelopment Interactionbetween wargaming and simulation to support thedecisionmaking.

  10. Wargaming and Simulation – Phase I - III • Phase I • Wargaminggivenscenario • ProducingCapabilityrequirements (without budget restrictions) • M&S - testingcapabilitiesagainsttheendstate, producingcostestimate and FOC timings • PhaseII • Introducingresultsprovided by the model (endstate, budget estimate and timings) • Introducing budget restrictions • RevisingCapabilityrequirements, assessingrisks, prioritizing, producingalternatives • M&S - providing response to theadjustedCapabilityrequirements • Iterations, risk assessment, prioritization • PhaseIII • ProducingCapabilitydevelopmentoptions • M&S - Testing and verifyingtheoptions • Producing budget estimates

  11. Wargaming and Simulation – Phase I Scenarios OperationalConcepts Wargaming Capabilityrequirements Costestimate Simulation Capabilityrequirementsverified

  12. Wargaming and Simulation – Phase II Budget restrictions Capabilityrequirementsverified • Risk assessment • Prioritization Capabilityrequirementsassessment Minimum Capabilityrequirements Simulation Costestimate Minimum Capabilityrequirementsverified

  13. Wargaming and Simulation – Phase III Minimum Capabilityrequirementsverified Modelling CapabilitydevelopmentOptions Costestimate Simulation CapabilitydevelopmentOptionsverified • Risk assessment • Prioritization CapabilitydevelopmentOptionsfinal

  14. Wargaming experiment • GamingwithoutRedTeam • Identifyrequiredcapabilities to achievetheendstaate in givenScenario • RequiredCapabilitiesvsgiven Budget • Capabilitieswith Budget restrictionsvsthe ENDSTATE

  15. Wargaming and Simulation – Phase I Scenarios OperationalConcepts Wargaming • Costestimate • Investmentcost • Maintenancecost Capabilityrequirements Capabilityplanningwithingiven budget • Capabilitydevelopmentestimate • Investment • Maintenance • Budget • Timeframe

  16. Wargaming experiment – Budget restrictions 10 yearoutlook Investmentcost Maintenancecost

  17. Wargaming experiment – Impactindicators

  18. One cannot NOT communicate Messaging Messaging Body language Deeds

  19. One cannot NOT play (war)games Fun

  20. ?

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