Moving toward Arrival-Departure GDP

1. Moving toward Arrival-Departure GDP Bill Hall December 1999

2. Why Arrival-Departure GDP? • Arrivals are only half the story • Rationing departure resources would • Provide control over departure delays • Improve enroute and arrival predictions • Allow airlines to determine their own tradeoff between delay and cancellation • Departure queue control • Reduced fuel use • Fewer airframe hours • Less environmental impact Bill Hall 12/16/99

3. Careful! • Time constants much faster on departures • Substitutions must be nearly instantaneous • Europe rations arrivals and departures all the time • This is not the whole answer • The real motivation -- • Control over arrival - departure interactions Bill Hall 12/16/99

4. Airport Capacity • Interactions between many factors determine airport capacity • Airport configuration • Mixture of arrivals and departures • Types of aircraft • To first order, capacity can be represented in arrival-departure space Bill Hall 12/16/99

5. The Draper Approach • Use arrival-departure interactions to everyone’s advantage • Give users more control • Require few people in the loop for fast reaction times • Quantified benefits (from my thesis, May 1999) Bill Hall 12/16/99

6. Arrival-departure tradeoff occurs only at a few small airports like BOS and LGA, right? • For a given configuration, maybe • But make configuration decisions in concert with demand... Bill Hall 12/16/99

7. ORD arrival-departure tradeoff, all configurations Bill Hall 12/16/99

8. How ADCAM Achieves Benefit • During GDPs the FAA currently rations arrival capacity only • This approach ignores the dynamics of arrival-departure interactions • ADCAM uses a better airport capacity model that includes arrival-departure interactions • ADCAM affords the airlines more control Allows planned operations outside of the box Bill Hall 12/16/99

9. Current GDP Bill Hall 12/16/99

10. ADCAM GDP Bill Hall 12/16/99

11. Allocation to Multiple Users Bill Hall 12/16/99

12. Allocation Is Dynamic planned operations -- all airlines planned United operations planned Northwest operations United subcapacity Northwest subcapacity other colors -- other airlines Bill Hall 12/16/99

13. Outline of Arrival-Departure Capacity Allocation • ATCSCC makes arrival-departure capacity forecast • Arrival-departure capacity rationed by schedule (ADRBS) • Users employ capacity for arrivals and departures as they see fit • Arrival-departure compression run Bill Hall 12/16/99

14. Progress • We’ve worked out the details of ADCAM implementation • We’ve implemented Arrival-Departure Ration By Schedule (ADRBS) in software • We’ve tested the idea in simulation on optimization-based airline models • We’ve developed visualizations Bill Hall 12/16/99

15. Implications for your Airline • Control delay / cancellation tradeoff for your own operations • You own departure resource, use it how you like • Get extra arrival capacity when you need it • Preserve bank connection structure • Get extra departure capacity when you need it • Ramp / gate congestion • Freedom to hedge against forecast uncertainty depart delay cancellations Bill Hall 12/16/99

16. Implementation Strategy • Build support infrastructure • Incremental benefit along critical path to ADCAM • Additional improvements as time and funding permit • Implement Prototype ADCAM • Start with a demonstration airport • Needs enough traffic to show benefit • Pre-operational testing followed by prototype operations • Extend to entire system Bill Hall 12/16/99

17. Airline Operations Centers Airport Planning Personnel Traffic Managers, ATCSCC Path to ADCAM Departure Demand Predictor CDM Data Demand Forecast Capacity-Based Demand Prediction Configuration Planning Tool Arrival-Departure Op’s Visualization Arrival-Departure Capacity Modeling Capacity Forecast GDP What-if Calculator ADCAM critical path development begun useful tools Bill Hall 12/16/99

18. What Draper can provide • ADCAM and simulation tools to analyze ADCAM performance at specific airports • Prototype Arrival-Departure GDP tools • Prototype tools for airline decision support under ADCAM • Support for Prototype Arrival-Departure Operations • Support for transition to system-wide operations • Experience analyzing and building real-time systems • Analytical understanding of ATM and ATFM • Development to date has been on internal Draper funds • We’ve invested up the learning curve Bill Hall 12/16/99

19. Conclusions • Arrival capacity depends on departures • Rationing both gives airlines more control • Significant flexibility available in the airport “physics” not currently given to the airlines • Allows better match of demand to capacity • Possible to reduce airborne holding and ground delays • Allows better match of ATM strategy to demand • Better demand information for configuration planning • Better tactical flow management (MIT, MINIT, vectoring) • Better en route modeling and allocation Bill Hall 12/16/99

20. Draper is ready • We could start pre-operational testing within a year of authority to proceed • We have worked out many of the difficult implementation issues • We’ve developed supporting software • We’re excited about this and want to be part of CDM • Involve us to leverage our findings, our progress to date, and our investment Bill Hall 12/16/99