Healthy People 2100: Scenarios of Demographic and Socioeconomic Change

1. Healthy People 2100: Scenarios of Demographic and Socioeconomic Change Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH Krisebi@essllc.org NCAR Summer Colloquium July 2006

2. London All Cause Mortality by Mean Weekly TemperatureCarson et al. 2006

4. Scenarios • Coherent, internally consistent depictions of pathways to possible futures based on assumptions about economic, ecological, social, political, and technological development • Scenarios include: • Qualitative storylines that describe assumptions about the initial state and the driving forces, events, and actions that lead to future conditions • Models that quantify the storyline • Outputs that explore possible future outcomes if assumptions are changed • Consideration of uncertainties

5. Global B1 A1 Social & Environmental Economic A2 B2 Regional IPCC/SRES Reference Scenarios Population Energy use Environment Economy Land use Technology Driving Forces

6. SRES: Population Emphasis on sustainability and equity Complete Globalization Emphasis on material wealth Strong Regionalization

7. World Population

8. Population 2050

9. SRES: Economic Growth Emphasis on sustainability and equity Complete Globalization Emphasis on material wealth Strong Regionalization

10. OECD Development Assistance Statistics

11. Health In MA Scenarios

12. Climate Change & Malaria: Analysis of the SRES Climate & Socio-Economic ScenariosVan Lieshout et al. 2004 • MIASMA 2.2 • HadCM3 with A1F1, A2, B1, B2 • 0.5° by 0.5° grid • Downscaled to national level • Re-aggregated by region • Expert judgment of adaptive capacity (SES, current malaria control)

13. Results • Malaria increases • Hot spots (due to confluence of climate and adaptive capacity) • Fringe of its current distribution • Where current control is poor • 90 to 200 million by 2080s • Malaria decreases where precipitation decreases • Endemic areas largely not affected

14. Pitcher et al. in press

15. Thank You

16. Elderly (65+)