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Minnesota Demographic Change

Minnesota Demographic Change. Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration October 2005. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful , (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road). Our economy no longer depends on our resource base

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Minnesota Demographic Change

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  1. Minnesota Demographic Change Tom Gillaspy, State Demographer Mn Dept of Administration October 2005

  2. Minnesota Has Been Very Successful, (Especially For A Cold Weather State at the End of the Road) • Our economy no longer depends on our resource base • Our economic growth rate has exceeded the national average • We rank with the leaders on many social and economic indicators • Education has been a key contributor to the state’s success

  3. Minnesota Is Now Substantially Above Average In Per Capita Personal Income US Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 1950 Mn was 1.87% of US total personal income. In 2004 Mn was 1.89% of US total personal income

  4. Minnesota Has Made Great Strides In Education Since 1950 Census

  5. 4th lowest poverty rate 3rd percent of 16-64 employed 1st percent with health insurance 1st home ownership 8th median family income 10th in personal income per capita in 2004 - 25th in 1960 11th Per capita disposable income 4th percent of children in married couple families 2nd percent with at least high school diploma 1st United Health Foundation ranking of state healthiness 3rd Kids Count 2005 Minnesota Ranks Highly In Many Social/Economic Indicators Selected indicators for 2004

  6. Minnesota is Growing—Rapidly For The Frost Belt • Minnesota adds about half a million people per decade—713,000 by 2020 • Census Bureau has us growing faster than any other Midwest and northeast state • Projections have us maintaining our 8 congressional seats

  7. Minnesota is Prosperous, But… • We still have people in need and those people can get lost in a sea of prosperity • Part of the reason we are so special is that we are not very diverse. This is changing • Aging will move our attention away from issues of children and youth • Our future depends in great degree on how we resolve disparities especially in education and health

  8. Many Social/Economic Indicators Are Related And Also Related To Big Demographic Trends • Suburbanization • Aging • Increased diversity

  9. Sources Of Minnesota Population Change 2000-2004Immigration Accounts For 33% Of Growth

  10. Most Growth Is In The Twin City Suburban Doughnut • Twin Cities accounts for 78% of growth in the state • Suburban ring is spreading outward • 7 of 13 metro counties in fastest 100 growing of the nation • Rural and central city declines sine 1950 • Population growth is related to economic growth—huge differences exist in life experiences and prosperity

  11. Aging Is The Dominant Demographic Trend In Minnesota And The Nation • It is not normal for a society to age • Dramatic changes will be seen in 2008 and 2011 and beyond • By 2020, the number of Minnesotans 65+ will increase by 53%. By 2030 it will double

  12. This Decade And Next Will See Dramatic Differences In Growth In Key Age Groups

  13. Minnesota Births 1926 to 2003 Births Deaths

  14. Minnesota’s Boom Generation Begins Turning 65 in 2011 Census counts & State Demographer projection

  15. Minnesota is Growing More Diverse • Minnesota is not very diverse—13% minority v US 32% • Over half of total population growth this decade is minority. • Diversity also means culture, language, religion, national origin—all changing

  16. Upper Midwest Becoming More Diverse But Still Less Than The Nation Note: Population except white alone, not Hispanic, 2003 Census Bureau estimate

  17. Students Of Color Are Increasing While White Students Are Declining Mn Dept of Education data

  18. Change In Minnesota School Enrollments 1999-00 to 2004-05 By Language Spoken At Home

  19. Number Of Immigrants Admitted With Intended Residence of Minnesota

  20. Most Of Minnesota’s 339,000 Foreign Born People Entered The US In Since 1990

  21. Age Distribution of Minnesota’s Foreign Born & Total Populations 2000 Census 5% PUMS

  22. The Top Ten Countries Account For 55% Of Minnesota’s Immigration In 2004 Dept of Homeland Security

  23. Non-English Speaking Students:While Minneapolis and St. Paul have the largest numbers, some smaller districts also have substantial proportions Source: Mn Dept of Education data

  24. Health Care Costs Will Crowd Out Other Spending And Investment , Both Private And Public Heffler, et al., Health Affairs, Feb 2005, Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services

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