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CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 14th February 2014 Economic Research Institute at BAS

NEW EVIDENCES ON POTENTIAL AND RETURN MIGRATION FROM/TO BULGARIA: MAIN DESTINATIONS AND REMITTANCE BEHAVIOR. CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 14th February 2014 Economic Research Institute at BAS Aksakov str. No 3, Sofia. Vesselin Mintchev. Fieldwork.

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CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 14th February 2014 Economic Research Institute at BAS

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  1. NEW EVIDENCES ON POTENTIAL AND RETURN MIGRATION FROM/TO BULGARIA: MAIN DESTINATIONS AND REMITTANCE BEHAVIOR CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION 14th February 2014 Economic Research Institute at BAS Aksakov str. No 3, Sofia Vesselin Mintchev

  2. Fieldwork “Family Patterns and Migration”, UNFPA / BUL1P201 - Sample 2725 “Bulgarian Diaspora in Western Europe” , National Science Fund of Bulgaria / Contract № DID 02/21 – Sample 1204 „Migration and Transnationalism Between Switzerland and Bulgaria”,BRSP – 2011-2016 / Contract №IZEBZ0_142979 – Sample 3907

  3. ERI at the BAS Vesselin Mintchev Iskra Balkanska Irena Zareva Dimitar Statev Other affiliations Evgenia Markova / London Metropolitan University Iordan Kaltchev / SWU - Blagoevgrad Valentin Goev / UNWE Venelin Boshnakov / UNWE Mihaela Misheva / UNWE Martin Dimov / UNWE Team: “Bulgarian Diaspora in Western Europe”

  4. ERI at the BAS and ASA Vesselin Mintchev Docho Mihailov Georgi Spopov Venelin Boshnakov / UNWE Iordan Kaltchev / SWU - Blagoevgrad Dochka Velkova Konstantin Konstantinov Universities of Friburg and Lugano Michael Nollert Marina Richter Paolo Ruspini Team: „Migration and Transnationalism Between Switzerland andBulgaria”

  5. Migration potential – instrument

  6. Migration potential- 2007

  7. Migration potential - 2011

  8. Migration potential - 2013

  9. Migration potential 2013 – regional dimension

  10. Migration potential /gross %/

  11. Migration potential /1-year horizon/

  12. Migration potential (%)/total potential vs.1-year horizon of intentions/

  13. Migration potential (numbers)/total potential vs.1-year horizon of intentions/

  14. Migration potential - what happens? • Stabilization of the migration potential of the country at (relatively) high level? • Increased desire for resettlement? • “Short-term” or “circular” migration?

  15. Main Destinations – 2007

  16. Main Destinations – 2011

  17. Main Destinations – 2013

  18. Is there a change inpreferred destinations?

  19. Main Destinations 2013 / NUTS2

  20. Why departing – 2013 / 1 /?

  21. Why departing / 2 /? • Short vs long-term economic reasons? • Career and family reasons - to a lesser extent in 2011 compared with 2007 – but “rehabilitated” in 2013?

  22. Why departing / 3 /?

  23. Return and current migrants: Preliminary Estimates

  24. EARNINGS WHEN ABROAD

  25. Remittances – Preliminary Estimates

  26. Savings and Remittances:WHAT HAPPENS? • Increased average earnings of recent Bulgarian returnees • Length of stay abroad, on average: 12–18 months • In 2011 the estimated remittances of Bulgarians abroad (730 mln.EUR) are quite close to the official (BNB: 620 million EUR, annual average, 2006-2010) • In 2013 – estimated remittances (1,742 mln.EUR) are much higher (BNB: 740 mln.EUR, avg.2008-2012)

  27. Attitudes toward international migration in Bulgaria

  28. Attitudes toward international migration in BG

  29. Attitudes towards the international migration in Bulgaria – 2013

  30. CONFERENCE ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION14th February 2014Economic Research Institute at BASAksakov str. No 3, Sofia Thank you! Благодаря!

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