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Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University

A Look at the Economy in San Diego. IFMA San Diego January 13, 2010. Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University. U.S Outlook. Real GDP Growth Forecast in 2010 Percent change, Q4/Q4. “V”-shaped Recovery GDP, billions of chained 2005 dollars.

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Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University

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  1. A Look at the Economy in San Diego IFMA San Diego January 13, 2010 Lynn Reaser, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Point Loma Nazarene University

  2. U.S Outlook

  3. Real GDP Growth Forecast in 2010Percent change, Q4/Q4

  4. “V”-shaped Recovery GDP, billions of chained 2005 dollars

  5. Weaker-than-normal ReboundReal GDP, % change Trough to 6 qtrs later

  6. Job Growth to Slowly ResumeChange in nonfarm employment, in thousands

  7. Jobless Rate to Edge Lower by Year-end 2010 Percent Actual

  8. Profits to ReboundAfter-tax profits, percent annual changes

  9. Inflation SubduedConsumer prices, percent change, Q4/Q4

  10. Interest Rates to Slowly RiseQuarter-end, percent 10-year Treasury note

  11. U.S. Forecast Summary • Recession over • Financial markets settle • “V” shaped recovery, but less robust than normal • Moderate inflation • Gradual rise in interest rates

  12. ME WORRY?

  13. Debt Shifts to the Public Sector Q3 2009, % change from prior quarter, annualized

  14. California’s Prospects

  15. California Bottoming Out with NationNonfarm employment, percent change over prior years US

  16. California Outperforms in Goods, Underperforms in Services and Government JobsPercent change, Nov 2009 over prior year U.S. Gov’t Private Services Goods

  17. California’s Problems • Dysfunctional government • Fiscal pressures • Infrastructure and schools • Regulatory burden • Expensive housing • Water usage

  18. California’s Strengths • Entrepreneurial talent • Technology frontrunner • Environmental leader • International edge • Draw of our climate

  19. San Diego

  20. San Diego’s Jobs Decline Widespread Percent change December 2009 over prior year Total

  21. San Diego’s Jobless Rate Rises Monthly, percent

  22. Home Sales and Prices Recover Percent change, November 2009 over prior year Prices Sales

  23. San Diego Home Price Trend Converges to the Nation’s S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index, Jan. 2000=100 San Diego U. S.

  24. San Diego Housing Permits to Rise Thousands of units

  25. Commercial Real Estate • Distress across the board • Gap closing between lease and sublease rents • Market trough end of 2010 • Owners better capitalized than in early 1990s

  26. Positive Forces Housing market improves International trade Technology Alternative energy Naval construction Tourism Health care and biotech Risks/Constraints Rising commercial real estate vacancies Credit still tight Fiscal problems for state and local governments Outlook for San Diego

  27. San Diego Jobs to Return

  28. Implications for Facilities Managers

  29. Fastest Salary Growth Expected in 2010

  30. Takeaways for Property Managers • Keep your tenants happy • Earn a raise in 2010 • Take care of your employees • Re-examine your personal finances • Character counts

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