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MEDSTAT Study Visit on External Trade Statistics Hungarian Central Statistical Office Budapest

MEDSTAT Study Visit on External Trade Statistics Hungarian Central Statistical Office Budapest. Price Indices for External Trade of Goods Eleonora Baghy 26/05/2013. Overview. Background, purposes History Methodology Data Sources Sampling Price survey Unit values

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MEDSTAT Study Visit on External Trade Statistics Hungarian Central Statistical Office Budapest

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  1. MEDSTAT Study Visit on External Trade StatisticsHungarian Central Statistical Office Budapest Price IndicesforExternal Trade of Goods Eleonora Baghy 26/05/2013

  2. Overview • Background, purposes • History • Methodology • Data Sources • Sampling • Price survey • Unit values • Index calculation • Dissemination • Macroeconomic analysis

  3. Background, purposes (1) • Price index of External Trade in Goods: • Methodology • Data: external trade statistics + price survey • Measurement of • Price level changes (conjuncture) • Volume of exports and imports (deflation) • Economic growth (real GDP) • Competitiveness, seasonality e.g. (macroeconomic analysis)

  4. Background, purposes (2) ∆Value=∆Price+∆Volume +∆Quality • International recommendation: • Filter quality changes from price index • Real price changes • Data collection • Stricte definition of observed item

  5. Unit values versus Price Indices (1) • Price indices: • Price survey • Commodity specification • Coverage - non response, missing data • Organisation – staff, special knowledges • Costs

  6. Unit values versusPrice indices (2) • Unit value indices: • Widely used • Based on External Trade Statistics • Nomenclature not enough detailed • Compositional effect – quality changes • Low costs • High coverage „Unit value indices are not price indices because their changes may be due to price and (compositional) quantity changes.” (XMPI Manual, Ch.2, Par.2.1, IMF 2009)

  7. Unit values versus Price indices (3) • Hybrid Method • Unit values: • relatively homogenious products • relatively constant composition • Price survey: • heterogenious products • short life cycle • Stratisfaction: depends on • structure of turnover • National specialities

  8. History of the Hungarian External Trade Price Statistics (1) • 1959-1990: price index compilation based on survey • few companies (about 50-60) • coverage: 50-60% of turnover • 2000 products - 5000 items/flow • Fisher formula • 1950-58: retrospective compilation of UVI • About 300 items/flow • Coverage: 55-60%

  9. History of the Hungarian External Trade Price Statistics (2) • 1991-2002: unit value indices • Transition to market economy • Liberalisation of external trade • Change of data source • Compilation quarterly • Completed with surveyed price data (10-15%) • Paasche-formula – quarterly compilation • Fisher formula – years

  10. History of the Hungarian External Trade Price Statistics (3) • 1991-2002: unit value indices • Sampling method: • Cutoff sampling (threshold) • Filter: • Transaction code (processing) • List of surveyed products • Stratisfaction by: • Flow (exports/imports) • Commodity code SITC 3/2/1-digit • Groups of countries

  11. History of the Hungarian External Trade Price Statistics (4) 2003 - : Hybridmethod • Unit valueindices • Commoditysections 0-4 of SITC • Food, beverages and tobacco • Crudematerials and oils, fats • Fuels • Price survey • Commoditysection 5-8 of SITC • Chemicals • Manufacturedgoods • Machinery

  12. Data sources (1) • Price survey • Questionnaire • Unit values • External trade database • Extrastat • Intrastat • Statisticalvaluein HUF • Quantity (ifavailable) or net weight • Finalpurchase/sale

  13. Data sources (2) • Weights • External trade database • Alltypes of transactions • Difficulties: • Fixed frames: • - legal • - methodological • - quality of data

  14. Price survey Sampling (1) • Procedure • Once a year - September • Basedon 12 months’ data (August previousyear – Julycurrentyear) • Finalpurchase/sale • No samplerotation

  15. Price survey Sampling (2) • Definition of item: • Flow • Product: 8-digit level of CN • Specialities : + 3 digits • Country of consignement/destination • Technicalparameters • Commercialconditions • Quantity unit

  16. Price survey Sampling (3) • Concentratedsamplingmethod-top down • Groups of countries • 2-digit level of SITC • Product (CN8) • Country of destination/consignement • Data providercompany • Technical and business conditions 1100 dataproviders - 4500 items Coverage: about 70%

  17. Price survey – Data collection (1) • Frequency: monthly by Internet • Unit price • In national currency • At frontier parity (CiF; FOB) • Period price (weighted average for a month) • Substitutional prices • Unit price for referenc period • Unit price for previous period • Remarks

  18. Price surveyData collection (2) • Verification, validation • Completeness • Data reporting application • Verification – Microvalidation • Missing data • Substitution • New items – overlap • No fixed basket • Personal contact

  19. Unit values Sampling • Procedure • Once a year – December • Cutoffmethod (threshold) + • Concentratedsampling top down • Chapters of SITC (1/2/3 digit) • Product (CN8) • No selection of countries Items: 450 (Import) 530 (Export) Coverage: about 75%

  20. Index calculation (1) • Arrangement of newyear’scalculation • Matching • Collectedprices: continous • New items: estimationfor December • UV and weights: transpositiontables • Rebasing • Prices : averagepriceforthebaseyear • UV: weightedyearlyaverage (∑V/ ∑ Q)

  21. Index calculation (2) • Quality changes • Price survey: • Chain index • Information from data provider • Implementation of new items • Revision of sample • Unit values: • Base indices of similar product/coutries

  22. Index calculation (3) • Compositional effect - Products • Price survey – no • UV – yes - Countries • Prices survey – limited • UV - yes

  23. Index calculation (4) • Data editing • Omissionfromcalculation (both) • Judgementapproach (prices) • Processing : monthly • Previousyear=100.0%

  24. Index calculation (5) • Aggregation: • Elementaryaggregation • Price representants CN • No turnoverdata • Carli formula • Higher-levelaggregation • CN SITC ( 3/2/1 digit) • Fisher formula • Weighting: external trade data • Referencemonth (Paasche) • Monthlyaverage of previousyear (Laspeyres)

  25. Index calculation (6) • Macrovalidation: • Time series • Terms of Trade • Exchange rates (USD, Euro) • PPI – export index • Other informations: • Companies • Press • Stock market (oil, wheat, iron etc.)

  26. Dissemination • First releases • On-line database • Main commodity groups • Main country groups • Calculation on two bases • Same period of previous year=100.0% • Previous month=100.0%

  27. Use for macroeconomicanalysis (1) • International comparison – indices • Limited – different: • Nomenclatures • Base period • Currency • Methodology • Definition of price representant • Sampling method • Outlier detection • Estimation of not-surveyed items

  28. Use for macroeconomicanalysis (2) • Comparative analysis • Sectorial competitiveness • Geographical price indices • Comparison of price levels (different countries) • Lack of base data (prices) • Prices = strictly protected information • International databases – unit values

  29. Thank you for your attention! Eleonora Baghy Eleonora.Baghy@ksh.hu

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