1 / 5

Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved

Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved. MacNeice and Taktakishvili SHINE June 26, 2012. Heliospheric Model Inventory. CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) Serve model runs to both science and operational forecasting communities

alika
Download Presentation

Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Heliospheric Modeling at the CCMC and possible ways these modeling efforts can be improved MacNeice and Taktakishvili SHINE June 26, 2012

  2. Heliospheric Model Inventory • CCMC (Community Coordinated Modeling Center) • Serve model runs to both science and operational forecasting communities • ISWA – http://iswa.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov • WSA • WSA/ENLIL • CORHEL (MAS/MAS, MAS/ENLIL, WSA/MAS, WSA/ENLIL) • SWMF • HelTomo

  3. Status – Ambient Timelines at 1AU • Model error is inherited from coronal models • Arrival times of slow/fast wind transitions and current sheet crossings have typical timing errors or order 24 hours. • Fieldlineconnectivities to solar surface challenged by lack of low latitude open flux in static models • Some models have had more effective tuning for different magnetogram sources • All Helio MHD models ‘fudge’ the current sheet and so Bz cannot be trusted • None of the Helio models give T that can be used for anything right now

  4. Status – Time Dependent • ENLIL Cone Model (with WSA or in CORHEL) and HelTomo • Sandro has published ICME ‘arrival time’ and ‘impact on magnetosphere’ analyses • Arrival time errors average 6 – 8 hours with big spread (0 - 20 hours) • Impact on magnetosphere too severe by a factor or ~2

  5. Improvements ? • Ensemble forecasting • Based on variety of magnetogram sources • Based on different cone model parameters • Appropriate for WSA/ENLIL, CORHEL and SWMF • Use of Heliographic Imager data or HelTomo output to initialize heliosphere or even to support assimilation strategy • Blobs as markers of CIRs – launch artificial blobs with observed statistical pattern and compare synthetic HI images with observation to select best model from ensemble • SWMF still needs an ICME feature • Adding shock driver SEP model to ENLIL

More Related