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Part B:China LEAP Modeling Efforts

Part B:China LEAP Modeling Efforts. GU Alun, ZHANG Aling, WANG Yanjia 2007, Oct. Beijing. Basic Assumptions. Base year: 2000 (2005) Target year: 2030 Dataset: AES2007 Draft LEAP2008

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Part B:China LEAP Modeling Efforts

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  1. Part B:China LEAP Modeling Efforts GU Alun, ZHANG Aling, WANG Yanjia 2007, Oct. Beijing

  2. Basic Assumptions • Base year: 2000 (2005) • Target year: 2030 • Dataset: AES2007 Draft • LEAP2008 • Three scenarios: BAU (considering regional cooperation), Maximum Nuclear Path(MaNS), Minimum Nuclear Path(MiNS) • Data source

  3. Nuclear power scenarios in China AES2006 AES2007 Draft

  4. Per capita GDP • China’s per capita GDP is expected to be quadrupled by the year 2020 as against 2000 in the report of 17th NCCPC on October 2007. 2000 yr: 7078 RMB (856 US$) 2020 yr: 28000 RMB (3500US$, not considering rate fluctuation) 2006 yr: 2024 US$ • This goal is much higher than the target set by the CPC five years ago at the 16th National Congress which was to quadruple the GDP value, without the mention of per capita by 2020. • But the rapid growth will be under the condition of reduced consumption of resources and greater efforts in environmental protection

  5. Per capita house area and urbanization • Industrialization and urbanization have speeded economic development. • Per capita income will increase and people living level will be improved • Although there is a big income gap between urban and rural residents, per capita house area is expected to be similar by 2050.

  6. The urban-rural income disparity has been increased recently Source: LI Shantong, 2006

  7. Alternative future • 20% target: EE priority scenario, reduce 240 Mtce • Low carbon scenario: advanced technology included (TED), sustainable consumption • Future target year 2050? • ……

  8. Thanks gal@tsinghua.edu.cn

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