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Red Meat Prospects Conference

Red Meat Prospects Conference. ‘Progress Through Partnership’. Red Meat Prospects Conference 2013 Conall Donnelly. NI Beef & Lamb Trade Dynamics. The Beef Trade All Shook Up. Tight Supplies Rising Input Costs Record Prices Seasonal Pressure Horsemeat Crisis New Opportunity.

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Red Meat Prospects Conference

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  1. Red Meat Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

  2. Red Meat Prospects Conference 2013 Conall Donnelly NI Beef & Lamb Trade Dynamics

  3. The Beef TradeAll Shook Up • Tight Supplies • Rising Input Costs • Record Prices • Seasonal Pressure • Horsemeat Crisis • New Opportunity

  4. Breeding Herd Continues to RiseBirths Down Early in 2013 • Beef cow ↑ 3% • Heifers-in-calf ↑ 6% • 2012 Beef Calf Births ↑ 1% • 2012 Dairy Males ↑ 3% • Jan – Feb 2013 YTD • Beef Sired Births ↓ 5% • Dairy Sired Births ↓ 4% • Fertility Issues or change in seasonal calving pattern Conflicting Data

  5. Supply Tight in 2012 500 Prime + Bulls Cows 79 62 86 90 400 98 77 300 Thousands 200 397 390 368 362 352 348 100 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

  6. Supplies Stabilising in Early 2013But Average Prime Carcase Wt Down 3%

  7. Availability of NI Origin Cattle ‘000 Head

  8. NomadsTraditionally an important source of supply Nomad Cattle on the Ground - Beef breeds at 1st March 2013

  9. Availability of All Cattle ‘000 Head

  10. Imports/Exports for Direct Slaughter to GB and ROI

  11. 2013 - Cattle SlaughteringsForecast

  12. Boneless Beef Exports to EuropeReduced Exports to European Destinations

  13. GB Retail Beef MarketPeriod Ending 17 February

  14. R3 Steer Prices

  15. A Closer Look at PricesOut of Spec Deductions - What does the market want? In Spec Price Nomads Non FQAS Over-age Out of Wt 365.0 345.0 325.0 305.0 285.0 265.0 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13

  16. A Closer Look at PricesPrice Range - Getting what the market can offer?In Spec R3 Steer / Heifers W/E 8 March Excludes Angus, Hereford, Organic

  17. The Sheep TradeShaken but Still Standing • Significant Costs • Price Pressure • Stronger Supply • Exchange Rate Sensitive • Improved Demand • Turning a corner

  18. Strong Recovery in NI Sheep KillBut Numbers Remain Low by Historical Standards

  19. NI Sheep Production Continues to Increase in Early 2013 Improving lamb crop in 2011 & 2012 drove increased production in 2011/2012 Numbers continue to increase due to carryover of hoggets 1 kg reduction in average carcase weights in first 10 weeks of the year

  20. A look ahead: December Survey - Breeding Ewe Numbers Fewer ewe lambs tupped in 2012 drove part of the increase in supply in 2012 Breeding Ewe numbers are otherwise stable Reports of reduced fertility Reeduced kill in 2013?

  21. All Ireland Lamb Kill

  22. NI Weekly Sheep Exports & EUR / STG Ex Rate Source : DARD

  23. NI Deadweight Sheep Price& EUR / STG Ex Rate

  24. Deadweight Lamb / Hogget Prices

  25. Boneless Lamb Exports to EuropeReduced Exports to European Destinations

  26. GB Retail Lamb MarketPeriod Ending 17 February 2013

  27. Thank You Questions

  28. Red Meats Prospects Conference ‘Progress Through Partnership’

  29. Live Imports from ROITraditionally and important source for producers and processors

  30. Store Bullock Prices – 150-300kg

  31. All Ireland Lamb KillYear to Date

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