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Kimberley Zuill BWS Director 25 March 2014

2014 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing Basic Tsunami information Is Bermuda at risk? What are BWS SOPs regarding Tsunamis? What do BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like? Overview of LANTEX 2014 Exercise scenario Request for participation & feedback – What would you do?

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Kimberley Zuill BWS Director 25 March 2014

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  1. 2014 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing • Basic Tsunami information • Is Bermuda at risk? • What are BWS SOPs regarding Tsunamis? • What do BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like? • Overview of LANTEX 2014 Exercise scenario • Request for participation & feedback – What would you do? • Problems & Potential Solution ideas • Briefing outcomes Kimberley Zuill BWS Director 25 March 2014

  2. Tsunamis form from water displacement from usually earthquakes but also • undersea land slides. • A tsunami is a SERIES of “wall-like” deep waves that travel the same speed as a jet. • Out in the open ocean boats may not even notice the tsunami • Even small tsunami waves can cause lots of damage from currents and debris • Tsunamis are NOT weather dependent! • Tsunamis can affect ANY coastline • Bermuda usually will not have the pre-Tsunami earthquake as a physical warning of a possible tsunami • Receding water does not always occur prior to a tsunami – it depends on the initial displacement dynamics. • Topographical and bathymetric effects cause small scale complications that • Computer models cannot resolve (due to resolution – BDA challenges in this area) Tsunami Basics NOAA Tsunami Basics – 3:18min http://oceantoday.noaa.gov/tsunamiawareness/

  3. In each of the following videos • Notice: • 1) the sky- weather independent – blue in first, cloudy in second • 2) various sizes of the waves - they are not all movie monster waves • 3) can you see the “drag” of water out prior to the first wave? • 4) series of waves – no “drag out” in subsequent waves • 5) the currents / eddies / debris • 6) panic of the people & helplessness in their cries watching the disaster • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhjhTOkWeX0(until 1:50min) • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bXfyn7agy5w(5:55) (14:49min) Tsunami Basics

  4. Tsunami SOPs at Bermuda Weather Service • Conforms (where possible) to existing warning system formats for significant weather events. • Disseminated via the same means as Severe Thunderstorm/Hurricane/ Marine Storm Watches & Warnings • Includes information from WCATWC &/or PTWC • Potentially incorporates prescribed information from local Emergency measures Organisation (not done in other warnings thus far)

  5. Tsunami Watches & Warnings - Actions to Take Duty Forecaster Only Duty Forecaster &/or Observer Does Message indicate that a basin-wide tsunami or a tsunami affecting the Bermuda area may be/has been generated? Tsunami Message arrives via AFTN/FAX/Phone/Email/Website Covering the Atlantic &/or Caribbean Yes No Confirm with RCC Bermuda Radio, Log phone call Potential Tsunami, but not Imminent, e.g. Southern Atlantic Source Confirmed Tsunami, but not Imminent, e.g. East Atlantic Source Call Director/Deputy Director No action necessary • No Action until confirmation • Advise PTWC, COMOPs of no Action taken • Monitor Situation Closely • Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda • Advise PTWC , COMOPs of Watch Issued • Monitor Situation Closely Is the Originator PTWC/WCATWC/CTWP? Yes No Does Message specify a tsunami threat to Bermuda? Potential Tsunami , Possibly Imminent, e.g. Mid Atlantic Ridge Confirmed Tsunami , confirmed as Imminent, e.g. Puerto Rico source Confirm threat to Bermuda with PTWC/WCATWC/CTWP – Log response. Find out Travel Time if available. Yes No Threat confirmed No threat • Issue a Tsunami Watch for Bermuda • Note: At Director’s Discretion, a Warning may be required dependent on Situation • Advise PTWC, COMOPs of Watch/Warning Issued • Monitor Situation Closely • Issue a Tsunami Warning for Bermuda • Advise PTWC , COMOPs of Warning Issued • Monitor Situation Closely Does Message indicate a travel time to Bermuda? No No Local Watch/Warning required. Keep Director/DD, COMOPs Apprised Yes Definitions PTWC: Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Ewa Beach Hawaii (operated by NOAA) – Designated international Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. WCATWC: West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center in Palmer, Alaska (operated by NOAA) – backup Tsunami Warning Center with responsibilities for Bermuda. CTWP: Caribbean Tsunami Warning Program in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico (operated by NOAA) – Not fully operational as yet; being set up to take on responsibilities for the Caribbean and Northwest Atlantic RCC Bermuda – Bermuda Maritime Operations Centre/Rescue Coordination Centre Bermuda/Bermuda Radio Imminent: travel time 4 hours or less from Bermuda, or within 1000 nm of Bermuda Levels of Confirmation 1)WCATWC, PTWC, CTWP, Local reports of inundation from RCC Bermuda Radio, Police, Fire Service, Regiment, or other Government of Bermuda sources. 2) Reports of impact from other overseas reporting stations (e.g. weather services, airports, military/police installations) 3) Visual evidence from news reports, buoy data, webcams etc. Duty Forecaster only beyond this stage! They are responsible for Watches/Warnings Follow chart opposite to determine what Local Watch/Warning to Issue

  6. 8.5 Earthquake 270km off of Portugal • Based on actual event: 1755 “Great Lisbon Earthquake and Tsunami” • Killed over 50,000 people • Run-ups reports in Caribbean, Brazil & Canada • Lack of records for run-ups in US (& BDA) • Educated guess = the US & BDA also experienced run-up tsunami waves 2014 Exercise Scenario

  7. (7am local)

  8. Bermuda First wave Roughly 7 hrs After earthquake = around 2pm local EXPECT more waves behind it!! * Remember a tsunami is a SERIES of waves

  9. Bermuda Region (open sea)

  10. = estimate 8ft wave without extra effects!! E.g. Piling, topography enhancements!

  11. Today is the first step! What would you do on Wed? Wednesday, 26 March 2014 BWS – Drill of communication systems, reenacting scenario as if real event. Your division / department / family ??????

  12. Feedback – Awareness & Improvement BWS will email participants 10 question survey using Monkey Survey.com BWS creates an annual LANTEX report Depending on interest – BWS will consider an online video summary

  13. Action There is no ALERT system in place. (Sirens?) People do not know what to do = panic/ confusion (Public Awareness/Education/ annual LANTEX/CARIBE WAVE exercise drill at various levels to lead to improvements in the system.) Problems: (Potential Solutions?) Policy & Paperwork SOPs for various agencies may not cover response to Tsunami events (creation of departmental and DM level SOPs for tsunami response) Although recognized internationally as the Tsunami Warning Focal Point, BWS does not have any documentation from either Government or Government House to carry out any objectives related to tsunamis. Potential legal implications in/during/after an event. (Letter of delegation for BWS to be responsible for local tsunami information dissemination) Time constraints impacting DM agencies getting the “what to do” message out swiftly to the public. (Pre-approved EMO statements of action to be disseminated (by BWS) along with situation specific info at the start of the event.)

  14. Here are some examples of sirens used in regions where tsunamis are common. (Note: sirens are just an alert – that can be used to warn the public that there is a danger The public then needs to understand to go to an information source for further details Regarding the hazard and proposed public response. Such as EMO website or 100.1FM) There is no ALERT system in place Potential Solution: Sirens What a tsunami warning siren alert and warning message sounds like in Guam http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoEvYbdH0DQ Image of University of Hawaii siren – just alert no voice warning http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0CJFt950vOk

  15. High ground Stations (BWS addition) Public Education/Awareness Insert useful maps and information in the “EMERGENCY PLAN for the General Public” - Dept Health (Last edition 2006)

  16. Briefing Outcomes • After the 2014 Pre Tsunami Exercise Briefing the audience: • Acquires Basic Tsunami information & understands the BDA risk • Understands what BWS Tsunami Watches or Warnings look like • Receives an overview of BWS SOPs & LANTEX 2014 Exercise scenario • Considers participating in the exercise on some level – if even to contemplate on each message “What would you do?” • Those that participate in the exercise complete the short survey • Consider drafting your own departmental SOPs & family plan • Consider other Problems & the Potential Solution ideas • Commit to the creation of a solid set of SOPs to improve DM in BDA • EMO –Delegation letter for BWS / Pre-approved public statements / Sirens? • Public Education Thank you… - Any Questions? Kimberley Zuill BWS Director 25 March 2014

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