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December 2, 2010

Maryland Homebuilders Association. The 2 nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook. Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University. December 2, 2010.

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December 2, 2010

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  1. Maryland Homebuilders Association The 2nd Year of the Recovery: Performance and Outlook Stephen S. Fuller, PhD Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, Center for Regional Analysis School of Public Policy George Mason University December 2, 2010

  2. Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP Past Four Recessions % Change in GDP Quarters After Trough Sources: BEA, GMU Center for Regional Analysis,

  3. U.S. Gross Domestic ProductQuarterly Change: 2006 – 2012 % Forecast > > > > > > > 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Global Insight

  4. U. S. Housing Starts Millions Forecast > > > > > > > > Source: Global Insight

  5. U.S. Economic Performance % Source: Global Insight

  6. The Washington Area Economy

  7. Washington MSA Leading Economic Index Month-Over-Year Percent Change 12-Month Moving Average

  8. Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA 000s Annual Data Annual Month over Year 2008 2009 2010 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  9. 15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change Oct 09 – Oct 10 (000s) Washington + 43,700 Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  10. Job Change by SectorOct 2009 – Oct 2010Washington MSA Total 43,700 (000s) Source: BLS March 2010 Benchmark, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  11. Unemployment Rate % 9.5 – DC 9.2 – U.S. 6.3 – SMD 5.9 – MSA 4.8 - NVA Source: BLS, Not Seasonally Adjusted

  12. Housing Market Trends

  13. Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through October 2010 12-Month Moving Average Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  14. Percent Change in Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-the-Year-Change2000 – 2010, MSA % Jan-May, 2006 >100 % Oct = + 1.3% Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  15. Total Active Listings Per SaleOctober Each Year – Metro Area Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  16. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  17. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  18. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeSuburban MarylandAll Housing Types % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  19. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Detached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 Sept %: DC = +33, SM = -2, NV = +10 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  20. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Attached % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 Sept %: DC = +4, SM = +4, NV = +5 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  21. Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Condos % Annual Change Annual Change by Month 2008 2009 2010 Sept %: DC = +11, SM = -2, NV = -2 Source: MRIS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  22. Washington MSA Monthly Building Permits January 2000 – October 2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  23. Northern Virginia Monthly Building Permits January 2000 – October 2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  24. Suburban Maryland Monthly Building Permits January 2000 – October 2010 Source: US Census Bureau

  25. New Housing Contract Kick-Out Rate Washington Metro, All Housing Types % 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: Hanley Wood

  26. Homeownership RatesWashington MSA Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  27. New Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Dec 2011Washington Metro Area

  28. New Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Dec 2011Northern Virginia

  29. New Housing Sales, Actual and Forecast to Dec 2011Suburban Maryland

  30. Economic Forecast

  31. Employment Change bySub-state Region (000s) Average Annual Change 1990-2008 = 37,000 Source: BLS, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, 2009-2014 based on 2010 Benchmark data from BLS

  32. Economic Outlook (GRP) – 2015Washington Area and Sub-state Portions(Annual % Change) % NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

  33. POLICY-CRA.GMU.EDU

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