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Iran's Nuclear Program Scenarios: Path to Stability or Conflict

Explore the future of the Iranian nuclear program based on potential scenarios and key events, from negotiations to geopolitical implications. Analyze the implications of different outcomes on regional stability and international relations.

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Iran's Nuclear Program Scenarios: Path to Stability or Conflict

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  1. Future of Iranian nuclear program Vladimir Orlov President PIR Center

  2. Where are we at the moment? June 14, 2013 Presidential elections in Iran September 5,2013 Iranian Foreign Ministry is put in charge of nuclear negotiations November 20 – 24, 2013 Geneva talks «Joint Plan of Action» January 12, 2014 Clarification of technical issues January 20, 2014 Interim agreement comes into force

  3. Iranian nuclear program: what Iran needs? State security and minimization of the risk of military conflicts Internal political stability Expansion, becoming regional superpower and leader of all of the Muslim population in the Middle East Technological progress and self-sufficiency

  4. Arak Iranian Nuclear Program

  5. March 16-17, 2013 Strategic Studies Network task force Draft agreement on the Iranian nuclear program Phased reciprocal sequencing chart

  6. 1st scenario: «Moving forward» Multilateral format: Iran and P5 +1 reach the comprehensive agreement Regional format: Confidence building measures with the Gulf states and across the Middle East Russia-Iran: Second reactor of the Bushehr NPP, military-technical cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran

  7. 2nd scenario: «Moving backward» Multilateral format: Iran disrupts the negotiations with P5+1 Regional format: Destabilization of the situation in the Gulf and across the Middle East. Escalating confrontation between Iran and its neighbors Russia-Iran: Moscow is studying the options for joining new international sanctions

  8. 3rd scenario : «Muddling through» Multilateral format: Iran and P5 +1 reach the comprehensive agreement but it remains unstable, Western powers blame Iran for noncompliance Regional format: Tensions in the Gulf and across the Middle East Russia-Iran: Second reactor of the Bushehr NPP, military-technical cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran

  9. What should we be following? Heavy water reactor in Arak Levels of uranium enrichment Additional protocol to the IAEA subsidiary agreement Missile program

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