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Prepared for the Millennium Challenge Corporation By Katie Cary Constance Chucholowski

Sensitivity of the Control of Corruption Indicator and its Sub-Sources to Discrete Corruption-Related Events. Prepared for the Millennium Challenge Corporation By Katie Cary Constance Chucholowski Ryan Hohler Jiaqi Lu Malika Talbi. ROADMAP. Background

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Prepared for the Millennium Challenge Corporation By Katie Cary Constance Chucholowski

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  1. Sensitivity of the Control of Corruption Indicator and its Sub-Sources to Discrete Corruption-Related Events Prepared for the Millennium Challenge Corporation By Katie Cary Constance Chucholowski Ryan Hohler Jiaqi Lu MalikaTalbi

  2. ROADMAP • Background • WGI Control of Corruption Indicator • Methodology and Limitations • Case Study Analysis • Sub-source and General Findings • Recommendations

  3. BACKGROUND • Millennium Challenge Corporation • - Ex-post aid • - CoC as “hard-hurdle” for Compact assistance

  4. CORRUPTION • Common definition: abuse of public power for private gain • Corruption inhibits growth Source: corruptionsucks.blogspot

  5. Control of Corruption Indicator & Sub-Sources GII GCB CCR CoC FRH EIU BPS ADB BTI AFR PRS ASD GCS IPD WMO GWP

  6. RESEARCH QUESTION • Do the Control of Corruption Indicator and its sub-sources show sensitivity to discrete corruption-related events (CREs)?

  7. METHODOLOGY • Purposive Sampling • Ponzi scheme in Benin (2010) • Sponsorship scandal in Canada (2003) • Anti-corruption reforms in Georgia (2004) • “Credible” signal reforms in Kenya (2003) • Needle-jump • Post liberalization reforms in Serbia (2000)

  8. LIMITATIONS • Lack of external validity • Sampling biases • Data inaccessibility • Non-causal identification

  9. SCANDAL IN BENIN • Micro-lending bank discovered to be Ponzi scheme • President Yayiinvolvement • Approximately USD $327M

  10. BENIN – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

  11. BENIN – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

  12. SCANDAL IN CANADA • Sponsorship Scandal • Provided payoffs and kickbacks to party supporters • Reflected in the data, but quick recovery

  13. CANADA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

  14. CANADA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

  15. REFORMS IN GEORGIA • 2003 Rose Revolution • Overhaul of police system, drastic decrease in petty bribery • Heralded as anti-corruption success

  16. GEORGIA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

  17. GEORGIA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

  18. REFORMS IN KENYA • Kibaki anti-corruption election platform • Establishment of Kenyan Anti-Corruption Commission and appointment of Permanent Secretary for Governance and Ethics • Business as usual

  19. KENYA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

  20. KENYA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

  21. KENYASUB-SOURCE DATA – PRS vs. GCS

  22. REFORMS IN SERBIA • Removal of Milosevic • Economic liberalization and broad anti-corruption reforms • Continued corruption

  23. SERBIA – CONTROL OF CORRUPTION CHANGES

  24. SERBIA – CHANGES IN SUB-SOURCE DATA

  25. CONTROL OF CORRUPTION TRENDS IN ALL CASE STUDY COUNTRIES

  26. SUB-SOURCE FINDINGS

  27. GENERAL FINDINGS • Non-uniform responsiveness • UCM weighting • Bias toward long-term sustainable change • Connection between CREs and other events too difficult to disaggregate

  28. RECOMMENDATIONS • Complete additional research • Evaluate continued efficacy and construct validity of CoC to MCC objectives • Further analysis on correlation of CoC to other governance indicators

  29. QUESTIONS?

  30. ADDITIONAL IMAGE CITATIONS “Georgia: The Rose Revolution Fades.” Georgia and World. August 15, 2012. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://www.geworld.ge/View.php?ArtId=2103&lang=en Flag of Kenya. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Kenya.svg “UK Fraud Office Halts Keyna Probe.” BBC News. February 5, 2009. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7871697.stm Flag of Canada. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Canada.svg “The Ontario Young Liberals Blur the Line Between Satire and Genuineness.” James W.J. Bowden’s Blog. March 29, 2014. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://parliamentum.org/ Flag of Benin. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Benin.svg “YayiBoni.” Afrique Media Vision. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://gontran.blogspot.com/ Flag of Serbia. Wikipedia. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Serbia.svg “Croatian Show Documents Djinjic Murder.” B92. February 12, 2008. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://www.b92.net/eng/news/region.php?yyyy=2008&mm=02&dd=12&nav_id=47647

  31. ADDITIONAL IMAGE CITATIONS, ctd. • Afrobarometerlogo. Afrobarometer. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://www.afrobarometer.org/ • Freedom House logo. Freedom House. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://www.freedomhouse.org/ • Economist Intelligence Unit logo. Economist Intelligence Unit. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://www.eiu.com/home.aspx • Institutional Profiles Database logo. Institutional Profiles Database. Accessed on May 1, 2014. http://www.cepii.fr/IPD.asp

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