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The Future of Work

The Future of Work. The Global Economy, Uppsala University December 2012. The Economics. The Economics: Increasing productivity? Two ways to maintain employment: Consume more (i.e. economic growth) Work less The Lump of Labour (fallacy?) Steady State Economics:

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The Future of Work

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  1. The Future of Work The Global Economy, Uppsala University December 2012

  2. The Economics • The Economics: • Increasing productivity? Two ways to maintain employment: • Consume more (i.e. economic growth) • Work less • The Lump of Labour (fallacy?) • Steady State Economics: • Working time policy important to regulate growth in a socially just way.

  3. Some statistics from NZ • Very little change in working time over the past 30 years. • More per capita, but less per worker • Work-Life Balance • 29% of full time workers work ≥ 50 hours • 32% ‘very satisfied’ and 46% ‘satisfied’ (78%) • 28% want to work less, even with less pay!! • An aging workforce • Productivity growth (‘low’ at 1%): • 40 hours (1978) = 28 hours now

  4. Trends through Time

  5. Labour Supply Curves

  6. Benefits of Working Less • Environmental • Less consumption • More time to live sustainably • Less energy use/emissions • Social • Less unemployment • Quality of life/wellbeing • Sexual equity • Health • Better care for elderly, youth • Stronger democracy • Easier retirement • Economic • Improved productivity (quality, better health etc) • Flexibility for employers • More time for training/education

  7. Costs of Working Less • Environmental • None! (?) • Social • Equity - hardest on the poor • Reduced government revenue/spending • Economic • Reduced material standard of living • Higher fixed costs of labour for business • Implications for attracting investment

  8. A Case for Intervention? • Advantages do not alone justify intervention • Free markets result in long hours • Market failures? • Growing unemployment • Unsustainable consumption • Already lack of freedom to choose hours (not a competitive, free market) • My hypothesis: Work has shifted from a ‘Public Good’ to ‘Common Pool Resource’ • Limited in quantity • Growing insecurity leads to overexploitation

  9. Political Analysis • With strong arguments in favour of intervention, why is so little being done? • Policy image? • Public support? • Political will? • Political understanding? • Ideological divisions? • Belief systems?

  10. The Policy Image/Belief System • An absence of a policy image • The ‘normal’ 8-hour day and 40-hour working week is accepted as a given • Economic growth as a ‘deep core’ belief, across the political spectrum • SD and a shorter working week conflict with the deep core beliefs, and are therefore sidelined • Essentially one economic goal (growth) is trumping various other social/environmental ones.

  11. Policy Change • Internal change seems unlikely • Possible external factors? Two examples.. • Energy Shortages (peak oil?) • Fewer work days – less commuting, office energy consumption etc • Major Unemployment • The need to share out the work for social justice • Both have happened in the past!! • Otherwise, perhaps a sudden surge in public interest… • The relevance of age - Pop culture, social networking. Ideas travel fast!

  12. Conclusions • Advantages outweigh Disadvantages • Particularly social and environmental reasons • Market Failures Exist • …and a free labour market doesn’t • Intervention is justified and required! • SD Policy conflicts with economic growth • Long term benefits, short term costs

  13. Discussion • High debt? An influence on public opinion.. • How about culture, the fourth ‘pillar’? • Protestant work ethic a part of our culture • Suspicion of idleness, excessive leisure • Does work serve other higher purposes? • Work can make us feel productive, valued • Provides a social network, promotes teamwork • How about consciously rejecting technology, efficiency and productivity?

  14. Discussion (con’t) “This isn’t just a theory with us. We have proved it with five years actual experience. We have found that, with the shorter working day, the efficiency and morale of our employees is [sic] so increased, the accident and insurance rates are so improved, and the unit cost of production is so lowered that we can afford to pay as much for six hours as we formally paid for eight” – Any guesses who or when?

  15. Discussion (con’t) “This isn’t just a theory with us. We have proved it with five years actual experience. We have found that, with the shorter working day, the efficiency and morale of our employees is so increased, the accident and insurance rates are so improved, and the unit cost of production is so lowered that we can afford to pay as much for six hours as we formally paid for eight” – Kellogg’s Company, 1935

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