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The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 2008

The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 2008. Hypothesis. Upper-level trough in the Plains Shortwave passing through Low-level jet from Gulf of Mexico Moisture advection from south Strong, veering winds Neutral layer near surface. Conceptual Model. Not Quite Type B.

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The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 2008

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  1. The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 2008

  2. Hypothesis • Upper-level trough in the Plains • Shortwave passing through • Low-level jet from Gulf of Mexico • Moisture advection from south • Strong, veering winds • Neutral layer near surface

  3. Conceptual Model

  4. Not Quite Type B...

  5. Mesoscale Factors (0000 UTC)

  6. Nashville Sounding (0000 UTC)

  7. Trigger 1: The Low-Level Jet 1800 UTC (1200 LST) 2100 UTC (1500 LST)

  8. Trigger 2: Shortwave 0000 UTC (1800 LST)

  9. The Supercell

  10. Type B Legacy: Nighttime Tornadoes LST UTC 5:02 PM 2302 ATKINS POPE AR 3524 9295 *** 3 FATAL *** 6:25 PM 0025 5 SW DANCYVILLE FAYETTE TN 3537 8936 *** 1 FATAL *** 6:42 PM0042 6 NNW MERCER MADISON TN 3556 8905 *** 2 FATAL *** 7:30 PM 0130 MORRIS CHAPEL HARDIN TN 3532 8835 *** 2 FATAL, 5 INJ *** 7:40 PM 0140 4 NW SAVANNAH HARDIN TN 3526 8829 *** 3 FATAL, 5 INJ *** 7:44 PM 0144 1 W GREENVILLE MUHLENBERG KY 3721 8720 *** 3 FATAL *** 10:10 PM 0410 5 W HARTSVILLE TROUSDALE TN 3639 8625 *** 2 FATAL *** 1:45 AM0745 9 SSE SCOTTSVILLE MACON TN 3663 8613 *** 4 FATAL *** 1:45 AM0745 7 SSE SCOTTSVILLE ALLEN KY 3666 8615 *** 4 FATAL *** 3:20 AM0920 6 SE MOULTON LAWRENCE AL 3442 8721 *** 3 FATAL *** 5:20 AM 1120 PISGAH JACKSON AL 3468 8585 *** 1 FATAL ***

  11. References • Martin, Jonathan E. Mid-Latitude Cyclone Dynamics: A First Course. Wiley Publishing, 2006. • Blanchard, D. O., 1998: Assessing the vertical distribution of convective available potential energy. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 870–877. • Miller, R.C., 1972: Notes on Analysis and Severe-Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Air Weather Service, 1-23. • Monette, S. A. The Parkersburg, IA EF-5 Tornado: Destruction Amidst the Rain. 2009. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison. • Hayes, J. L. Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak - Executive Summary. 2008. National Weather Service. • National Weather Service-Memphis, 2008. February 5, 2008 Storm Damage Survey. <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=feb52008tornadooutbreak>. • SPC Severe Event Index • Lecture 11 Powerpoint

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