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Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S.

Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S. David Pieper Departments of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, & Social Sciences, City College of San Francisco APPAM Conference Maastricht 19 Feb 2010. Background.

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Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S.

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  1. Effects of Immigration on Age Structure and Fertility of the U.S. David Pieper Departments of Geography, University of California, Berkeley, & Social Sciences, City College of San Francisco APPAM Conference Maastricht 19 Feb 2010

  2. Background • U.S. has more immigrants than any other country • 13% of population was born outside the country • Age structure and fertility effects on social security, labor markets, etc. • Conventional wisdom

  3. Conventional Wisdom • “International migration does not play a major role in the demography of aging” • “Immigrants themselves age” • “Initial labor migration often becomes family migration” • (National Research Council 2001: 44) • Over half of U.S. residents surveyed believe immigrants make up 25% or more of the population (vs. actual figure of about half that) (Massey 2007)

  4. Stock vs Flow • Stock of immigrants is the existing population living in the U.S. • Flow is the stream of new immigrants arriving each year • The stock ages each year, but they also have children • The flow has very different characteristics than the stock

  5. Data and Methods • American Community Survey 2007 • Large sample size • Individual micro data

  6. Table 1 Fertility Rates, U.S. 2007 Source: Author’s computations using data from American Community Survey, http://usa.ipums.org/usa/

  7. Conclusions • Immigrants more likely to be young adults • Public perceptions or misperceptions about the number of immigrants may come from age structure and fertility patterns • Immigrants have higher fertility • U.S. population is growing due to both immigration itself and higher fertility among immigrants • Flow and stock of immigrants differ

  8. Future Research • Trends over time • Patterns over space • Country of origin • Ethnicity • Socioeconomic variables • Comparisons to other countries

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