Immigration and Fertility

1. Immigration and Fertility Demography and Nationalism

2. Demography and Ethnicity • All ethnic groups and nations are distinct populations, though not clear where boundaries lie • National or ethnic populations are almost never totally separate: assimilation and dissimilation can muddy the waters of identity. Ethnic people can change their identity and immigrants can assimilate into a new ethnic identity over generations

3. Demography: Main Factors • Endogenous (Internal) aspects: fertility level, mortality level (infant mortality, life span) = natural increase • Exogenous (External) aspect: net migration = immigration - emigration. • Migration can be forced or voluntary • Also external invasion: can cause most of one ethnic group to be killed (i.e. Ancient Carthaginians and Paulicians) or driven off (Native Amerindians)

4. Invaders May Reproduce More • Invading males (ie Anglo-Saxons in Britain, Aryan Hindus in India) may spread their genes among subject populations (ie Britons, Dravidian 'Dasa') through domination • Invaders may have higher share of resources hence better infant survival rate, and longer fertility period for mothers

5. Old Rule: Better Off Have Higher Growth Rates • Average life span in pre-modern epoch was 30s-40s • Infant mortality rates are key. Wealthier populations/classes lose less. All European cities lose population due to death rate higher than birth rate. Elites escape to countryside in summer for health reasons • Female fertility: women can't get pregnant if malnourished &/or cannot menstruate from 30s on if poorly nourished

6. Old Rule: Better Off Have Higher Growth Rates… • Populations have sometimes voluntarily limited fertility due to environmental pressures - knowing there is not enough food (Amazonian tribes in traditional hunting grounds) • Geographic expansion and higher fertility/survival rate explains growth of population of European origin from 15 to 30% of the world's population between 1750 and 1900 • In multiracial societies like Latin America, the white population expands faster than nonwhite due to better infant survival rates and more prominent role of white males as desirable mates for nonwhite women

7. Fertility Transition in Europe • Modern period, from late eighteenth century • Already by the late 18th c., birth control is being practiced in Protestant cities like Geneva to: • Allow families to focus on 'quality' of offspring as opposed to quantity • Improve female quality of life • By start of 19th c in much of western Europe: birth spacing, high mean age at marriage, abortion. All reduce birth rate • North America follows later, but less dramatically • Result is that western demographic expansion is reversed during 20th c vis a vis rest of the World

8. Population Decline as a Problem • Rise of demography, statistics (censuses), sociology, and other social sciences • Demographic management becomes feasible as policy • Immigration policy another source to redress population decline (from nationalist rather than ethnic perspective)

9. Pronatalism • Encouragement of births for ethnic/nationalist purposes • This policy has a long history and continues to be important • In France, concern at declining population growth vis a vis Germany began in 19th c, pitch rose in 20th. • In 1918, average of just two children per family in France

10. Pronatalists • Established associations and ministry in France in interwar period • Pronatalists linked fertility decline to 'civilisation' of west, but also to materialism, selfishness and independence of women • Sometimes pronatalists concerned about foreign immigration 'replacing' low-reproducing natives • Incentives: baby bonuses, family allowances, prosecutions for abortion (1923 in France), moral campaigns

11. Pronatalism Cases • Often in relation to war, or after sustaining wartime losses • France, late 19th c - 20th c; Stalinist Russia • In Romania, Ceaucescu's measures post-1966: clampdown on abortion pushes fertility rates from 1.8 to 3.66 in just one year (1966-67) • Most western countries have a baby bonus. France and Quebec are especially notable • Israel has a very generous programme. Tries to restrict Muslim access through tax breaks, veteran requirements • Palestinian fertility driven by incentives provided by other Muslim countries and internal organisations

12. Pronatalism and Immigration • Generally a last resort for nationalists • Those concerned with political nationalism. Not favoured by ethnic nationalists unless immigrants are ethnic 'kin' (i.e. Japanese Brazilians, German ausseidler) • Often in concert with pronatalism. State security is a chief concern • 'Assimilability' always key for host nation • Immigration to France had begun in 19th c. In 20th c from Spain, Italy, Poland were favoured countries • Immigration to US, Canada, Australia, S Africa & Latin America was more economic, but with political considerations

13. Pronotalism vs Immigration • Some American scholars worry in 1910s and 20s that immigrants are causing native fertility decline (Fairchild, Grant) • Echoes today: CDU in Germany under Edmund Stoiber mounted 'Kinder statt Inder' (children instead of Indians) campaign against Schroeder's liberal plans re green cards and citizenship, in 2000

14. Nationalism vs Immigration • US and countries of immigration like Canada, France, Australia once ranked immigrants on ethnic and eugenic criteria • Mostly based on ethno-racial 'assimilability' • Eugenics and scientific racism plays a role in early 20th c • Chinese Exclusion Act (US 1882); Canadian 'Head Tax' (early 20th c) • US 1911 Dillingham Commission report & 1924 US 'National Origins' quota act • Canadian/Australian policies favour British, whites

15. Desirable & Undesirable Immigrants: France, 1930s

16. World Demographic Trends: Racial Implications

17. Rise of Racial-Civilizational Discourse of Declinism 'If the white race restrains [its births], who will guarantee us that the yellow race will follow its example? Who will assure us that the black race will sacrifice the fecundity which, to cite but one example, is a cause of anxiety for whites in the United States' - Auguste Isaac, Catholic deputy named French Minister of Commerce in 1919, father of eleven children and founder of the pro-family lobbying group La Plus Grande Famille (The Largest Family)

18. White Racial Fears of Decline • Growth of racial pessimism/panic during 1900-39 • War experience discredits racism, but fears remain • Demographic Trends – if anything – have moved much further since the interwar period • Global transport and communications development has enhanced the possibility of mass migration BUT also improved the means of surveillance and security against illegal immigration • 'Rest Against the West' article by Kennedy and Connelly (Atlantic Monthly 1994) highlights the issue

19. White Fears of Decline • Jean Raspail's apocalyptic 'Camp of Saints' paints picture of a demographic tide of resentful nonwhites peacefully invading France/Europe • Tensions often manifested within nations • National tensions over immigration all over the West due to declining dominant ethnic groups • Rise of Far Right; In UK, immigration a top issue; In US, Huntington’s Who Are We? (2004) flags Hispanic immigration as security threat • Tends to be complicated by economic and ecological concerns surrounding immigration policy • In France, a major controversy erupts among demographers over whether the nation is demographically self-sufficient. Important racial implications

20. These concerns often have a history that once included ‘backward’ whites: i.e. American History of Demographic Change

21. Internal Racial Demographic Change: California, 1970-2030

22. The 'Browning of America'

24. Issues of Demographic Ethnic Conflict • In Canada, French-Canadians already had much higher birthrates than British in 19th c. One of the highest growth rates in history • French expanded west into four Ontario border counties and into N Ontario • Priests and Quebec nationalists used 'La revanche du berceau' (revenge of the cradle) to hold the demographic line against massive British immigration from late 19th c • Both French growth and British immigration were causes of British-French conflict, in both established and frontier areas

25. Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland • "The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that." - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969

26. Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland • Lower Protestant fertility from early 20th c. offset by higher Catholic emigration • Protestants felt that discrimination in jobs, education, local government and housing encouraged Catholics to emigrate • When emigration became more Protestant, alarm bells rang • Fear of ‘losing’ border counties to Republicans • Protestants now emigrate at a higher rate than Catholic. Especially educated youth. A major issue. Demography lies behind Holy Cross violence and violence over Orange parades • IRA invests its hope in demography as a substitute for violence • New trends suggest that Catholic fertility is approaching the Protestant level, while fundamentalist Protestants have highest fertility. This will frustrate Adams’ strategy

27. Inter-ethnic Conflict • Assam, India: native Assamese, outnumbered 15:1, instigate violence against Bengalis • Kosovo: once 1/3 Serbian, declined. Causes tensions • Bosnia: areas where Muslim/Serb fertility differences were high were more conflict prone • Lebanon: Muslim fertility and immigration helped spark civil war • Macedonia: strict limits on number of Albanian refugees accepted – and then only temporary • Israel: worries about Jewish-Muslim and secular-orthodox fertility differentials • Congo, Cote D’Ivoire – destabilising effects of refugee flows into neighbouring states

29. Border Control • Migration leads to security moves against it • Most borders against migrants poorly policed in poor countries • In war situations, often tighter (Turkey-Iraq, Kosovo, Pakistan-India) but not always (Congo) • In peaceful areas, US-Mexico best policed, much more than India, S Africa, Europe

30. Nationalism Theory and Demography • Instrumentalists believe that host societies can absorb newcomers and redefine identities (US WASPs redefined themselves; some societies became peaceably multiethnic). Ethnicity is malleable and transcends demographic ‘populations’ • Ethnosymbolists would argue that boundaries are permeable, but not porous. Primordialists would argue that ethnic populations are genetically distinct and hence all immigration causes zero-sum conflict

31. Other Issues • Age Structure: are younger populations more prone to violence and older to avoiding it? • Gender balance • Fertility, Mortality and willingness to die: is life 'cheaper' and are people more willing to take risks if fertility and mortality are higher?

32. Conclusion • Major demographic upheavals in 20th century and in foreseeable future as fertility differentials widen and migration surges • Fertility differences within states and immigration (or internal migration) can lead to ethnic conflict • Theme of western racial or ‘civilizational’ decline vs. the South • Pronatalism, immigration control, eugenics or selective immigration among the tools used by nationalists or ethnic groups to control demography