Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical system

1. Climate Change: adaptation, mitigation and the statistical system The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Peter Bosch TSU IPCC WG III

2. IPCC Working group I, the physical science basis • ….Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-21th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations…..

3. IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability • …. Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases…..

4. IPCC Working group III, mitigation • …. There is substantial economic potential for the mitigation of global GHG emissions over the coming decades, that could offset the projected growth of global emissions or reduce emissions below current levels…..

5. G8 conclusions of the chair: Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Energy Security: ……………... We noted with concern the recent IPCC report and its findings. We are convinced that urgent and concerted action is needed and accept our responsibility to show leadership in tackling climate change. ………….

6. IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Water availability projections: • 10-40% up in high latitudes & some wet tropical areas • 10-30% down in dry regions in mid latitudes and in the dry tropics • More drought, more flood risk

7. IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Crop productivity: • Projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes (with +1-3 ºC) depending on the crop • Projected to decrease at lower latitudes, esp. in seasonally dry and tropical regions, for even small temp. increases (1-2 ºC) • Adaptations: altered cultivars and planting times

8. IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Forestry: • Globally commercial timber productivity projected to increase modestly in short-medium term Fisheries: • Regional changes in distribution and production of fish species. Adverse effects for aquaculture and fisheries

9. IPCC Working group II, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability Settlements • Most vulnerable industries, settlements and societies in coastal and river flood plains. Human health: • Increase in malnutrition • Increased death, injury, disease due to extreme events • Increased burden of diarrhoeal disease • Altered distribution of infectious disease factors

10. Summarising: with a view on adaptation to climate change increasing interest in: Agricultural statistics Forestry statistics Fisheries statistics Population statistics Health statistics Energy statistics

11. Total GHG emissions 60 GtCO2-eq/yr 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2004 1970 1980 1990 2000 IPCC Working group III, mitigation of climate change Between 1970 and 2004 global greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 70 %

12. Carbon dioxide is the largest contributor

13. With current climate change mitigation policies, global GHG emissions will continue to grow over the next few decades • IPCC SRES scenarios: 25-90 % increase of GHG emissions in 2030 relative to 2000 GtCO2eq/yr 2030

14. Economic mitigation potential until 2030 could offset the projected growth of global emissions, or reduce emissions below current levels • Both bottom-up and top-down studies TOP-DOWN BOTTOM-UP Global economic potential in 2030 Note: estimates do not include non-technical options such as lifestyle changes

15. What does US$ 50/ tCO2eq mean? • Crude oil: ~US$ 25/ barrel • Gasoline: ~12 ct/ litre (50 ct/gallon) • Electricity: • from coal fired plant: ~5 ct/kWh • from gas fired plant: ~1.5 ct/kWh

16. All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute (end-use based) Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

17. How can emissions be reduced?

18. How can emissions be reduced?

19. How can emissions be reduced?

20. Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation • Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings. • Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems • Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport

21. What are the macro-economic costs in 2030? • Costs are global average for least cost approaches from top-down models • Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages [1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates. [2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given. [3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030 that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030. [4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.

22. There are also co-benefits of mitigation • Near–term health benefits from reduced air pollution may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs • Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, sustainable agriculture and employment

23. Stabilisation of GHG concentrations (radiative forcing) in the atmosphere and emission reductions • The lower the stabilisation level the earlier global CO2 emissions have to peak Multigas and CO2 only studies combined

24. An effective carbon-price signal could realise significant mitigation potential in all sectors • Policies that provide a real or implicit price of carbon could create incentives for producers and consumers to significantly invest in low-GHG products, technologies and processes. • Such policies could include economic instruments, government funding and regulation • For stabilisation at around 550 ppm CO2eq carbon prices should reach 20-80 US$/tCO2eq by 2030 (5-65 if “induced technological change” happens) • At these carbon prices large shifts of investments into low carbon technologies can be expected

25. Investments • Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions. • The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.

26. The importance of technology policies • The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades • Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment • BUT, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly two decades: now about half of 1980 level.

27. Summarising: with a view on mitigation of climate change increasing interest in: Environment statistics (emissions, waste management, environmental expenditures) Energy balances Transport statistics (modal split, fuel use, types and length of journeys) Land-use statistics (aff/deforestation) Agricultural & Forestry statistics: (energy crops production, area changes, management changes) Trade statistics (flows of energy and energy crops) National Accounts (system integration to produce various efficiency indicators, information for decomposition analysis, dedicated R&D expenditures

28. www.ipcc.ch