1 / 32

Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies

Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies. Andreu Ulied, MCRIT ESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth 13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle. Questions to be discussed:.

amelie
Download Presentation

Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies Andreu Ulied, MCRIT ESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner • ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth • 13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle

  2. Questions to be discussed: • What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? Regional Disparities?, Global Opennes?, Spatial Polarisation? • Which Territorial Strategy for Europe up to 2050? • How European Cohesion policy should be reformed?

  3. Answers mostly based on ET2050 modelling results... • Politecnico Milano: modelling 2010-2030 Baseline Scenario with MASST3 model • S&W modelling 2010-2050 Exploratory Scenarios with SASI model • Reference World Scenario by MCRIT

  4. The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

  5. GDP Growth 2008-2030 by MASST3

  6. GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

  7. Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030

  8. GDP/Cap divergence for selected economies

  9. Total Employment Change 2010-2030

  10. Population Change 2010-2030 (due to Labour Migration...)

  11. Ageing 2010-2030

  12. The Crisis Aftermath... + Global Openness?

  13. Trade by companies located in Germany (M€) EUROSTAT

  14. Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

  15. Foreign Investments of EU companies UK EUROSTAT France UK Spain Germany

  16. World maritime container traffic. 2008* 13,3 MTEU 20 MTEU 6,7 MTEU Europe 2,2 MTEU Asia America 4,4 MTEU 2,2 MTEU Top 10 ports 2009 13,3 MTEU 18,4 MTEU 5,1 MTEU Source : DREWRY, 2008 The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation?

  17. Evolution of Global Accessibility 2010-2030

  18. Evolution of European Accessibility 2010-2030

  19. Key Baseline Conclusions... 1) End of Economic Convergence in Europe… 2) Increasing Regional Gaps… 3) Lower Average Salaries and Social Disparities... 4) More Labour Mobility in Europe… 5) Global Reorientation of European Economies… 6) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…

  20. Second Question... • What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? • Which European Territorial Strategy up to 2050? • How European Cohesion policies could be reformed?

  21. Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050

  22. Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050

  23. Cohesion and Structural Funds 2000-06 / 2050

  24. Highest and Lowest Growth Scenarios for 2050? GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)

  25. Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence? Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051 2007 Crisis

  26. Polycentrism National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051

  27. Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence? A2 A3 C2

  28. Policy Evaluation A2 B2 C2 Sustainabilityindicators will also be computed by SASI (Energy use & CO2 emissions) 28

  29. How Cohesion polices could be reformed? According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004: "It is a different country now. That's thanks to European contributions"

  30. How Cohesion polices may be reformed? • + Sensitivity to economic cycles? • + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment? • + Place-based focus towards endogenous development? • + More Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment? • + Land-Use Regulations adopted in vulnerable areas? • + Investments to Neighboring Countries?

  31. “Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit -and this is what I call adventure” Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

  32. Further information: ulied@mcrit.com www.et2050.eu (working documents) www.espon.eu

More Related