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Extreme precipitation events in the western U.S.

Extreme precipitation events in the western U.S. Erick R. Rivera Advisor: Dr. Francina Dominguez Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona 01-Feb-2011. How will climate change affect the intensity of precipitation in the western U.S.?

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Extreme precipitation events in the western U.S.

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  1. Extreme precipitationevents in the western U.S. Erick R. Rivera Advisor: Dr. Francina Dominguez Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Arizona 01-Feb-2011

  2. How will climate change affect the intensity of precipitation in the western U.S.? • Theintensity of extreme precipitationevents in theNorthernHemispherehas increased(Groisman et al., 2005; Trenberth, 2007)… Implicationsformanyareasincludingurbaninfrastructure. Testing the RCM: Compare the model climatology and the simulations of extreme precipitation events with observations. Use a ‘‘Poisson–GP model’’ (point process approach) to characterize the statistical distribution of extreme events (Katz et al. 1999, 2002, 2010). Future: Model-simulated changes in precipitation intensity. GCM data (low res) Regional Climate Model (high res, WRF) Dynamical downscaling Future climate projections using different models/emission scenarios. Test how the RCM performs using “ideal” boundary conditions. Future Projections (IPCC) Historical (Reanalysis)

  3. Winter (JFM) 1979-2000 Climatology: The spatial pattern of the downscaled precipitation and the magnitude is realistically captured for both winter and summer. WRF-UKMO HadCM3 Precipitation WRF-Reanalysis II Precipitation “Observed” NARR Precipitation 50-year return period events: Extreme events show a realistic pattern-magnitude in the winter.

  4. Winter (JFM) 50-year return period events. In the future Had-CM3, we see an increasein the intensity of extreme events in some areas (winter season). Pattern is heterogeneous, with distinct regions of significant increases – clear ties to topography.

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