1 / 72

Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events and Flooding along the Pacific Northwest Coast

J9.6. Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events and Flooding along the Pacific Northwest Coast. Michael Warner Cliff Mass and Eric Salathé University of Washington Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences 91 st AMS Annual Meeting January 24, 2011 Seattle, WA. Extreme precipitation.

mort
Download Presentation

Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events and Flooding along the Pacific Northwest Coast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. J9.6 Wintertime Extreme Precipitation Events and Flooding along the Pacific Northwest Coast Michael Warner Cliff Mass and Eric Salathé University of Washington Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences 91st AMS Annual Meeting January 24, 2011 Seattle, WA

  2. Extreme precipitation • Extreme precipitation event: • large amounts of rain (many inches) in the PNW • extended period of time, usually 1-3 days • winter months (October – March) • Known cause: “atmospheric river” (AR)

  3. Atmospheric river SSMI/AMSRE derived total precipitable water (TPW) [mm] 10 20 30 40 50 60 http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/global/main.html

  4. Atmospheric river (pineapple express) precipitation moisture pineapple Neiman et al., 2008a

  5. Motivation How will climate change affect extreme precipitation frequency and intensity in the Pacific Northwest (PNW)? Use a regional climate model (RCM) for this How and when do extreme precipitation events occur in the PNW in the current climate? Climatology Synoptic features Synoptic features Mesoscale precipitation patterns

  6. Questions • What are the associated synoptic features? How do featureschange along the coast? • Are all events the same? Are there other synoptic configurations that cause extreme precipitation?

  7. Questions • What are the associated synoptic features? How do featureschange along the coast? • Are all events the same? Are there other synoptic configurations that cause extreme precipitation?

  8. Synoptic structure - past composite studies • Lackmann and Gyakum, 1999 • station observation based study • small geographical location • trough/ridge structure, SW flow • Neiman et al., 2008a • satellite based study • entire west coast • differences in composite structure in north vs. south

  9. Daily precipitation data • Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) • 60 years, 1950-2009 • Close to coast, low elevation, and good spatial distribution

  10. Results – focus on the north (Forks, WA) • Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) • 60 years, 1950-2009 • Close to coast, low elevation, and good spatial distribution

  11. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  12. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  13. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  14. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  15. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  16. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  17. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  18. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  19. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  20. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  21. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  22. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  23. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  24. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  25. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  26. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  27. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  28. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  29. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  30. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  31. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  32. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  33. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  34. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  35. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  36. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  37. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  38. Results – anomaly composites (Forks, WA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  39. Results – focus on the south (Eureka, CA)

  40. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  41. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  42. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  43. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  44. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  45. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  46. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  47. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  48. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  49. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

  50. Results – anomaly composites (Eureka, CA) Precipitable Water anomalies 700 hPa geopotential height anomalies 850 hPa temperature anomalies -15 0 15 -25 0 25 -10 0 10 [mm] [dam] [°C] ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ● t (hrs) 60 24 12 0 48 36 72

More Related