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An Analysis of Internal Conflict

Erin McRae SIS, American University 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC 20016 em1680a@student.american.edu. Why Can’t We All Get Along?. An Analysis of Internal Conflict. 11/16/10. Literature Review. What factors affect the likelihood of internal conflict?.

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An Analysis of Internal Conflict

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  1. Erin McRae SIS, American University 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington DC 20016 em1680a@student.american.edu Why Can’t We All Get Along? An Analysis of Internal Conflict 11/16/10

  2. Literature Review What factors affect the likelihood of internal conflict? Sorli, Gleditsch, and Strand “Why is There So Much Conflict in the Middle East?” • Increase Likelihood • Weak state • Poverty • Ethnic domination • Decrease Likelihood • Strong state • Economic growth • Long periods of peace • No Effect • Social fractionalization • Islam • Oil The Middle East is not exceptional Fearon and Laitin “Ethnicity, Insurgency, and Civil War” • Strongly Increase Likelihood • Weak central government • Poverty • Rough terrain • Somewhat Increase Likelihood • Economic inequality • Lack of civil liberties • No Effect • Ethnic diversity • Ethnic discrimination 11/16/10

  3. Research Question & Hypothesis Research Question: What effect does socioeconomic and political quality of life have on the likelihood of Internal Conflict? Research Hypothesis: Poor quality of life will increase the likelihood of Internal Conflict. Null Hypothesis: No relationship between quality of life and internal conflict.

  4. Data Unit of Analysis: State Dependent: Internal Conflict (0 = No Internal Conflict, 1 = Internal Conflict) (Ordinal )1 Independent: Political Rights (Ordinal): 7 point scale (7 = most rights, 1 = least)1 Civil Liberties (Ordinal): 7 point scale (7 = most liberties, 1 = least)1 Good Governance (Ordinal) (Composite of effectiveness, transparency, stability) HDI (Life expectancy, education, GDP Per capita) (Interval Ratio) Literacy Rate (% population) (Interval Ratio) Source: Pippa Norris, Democracy Crossnational Data, through the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University 1Recoded variables 11/16/10

  5. Descriptive Statistics

  6. Bivariate Analysis Statistically significant associations are shown in red Chi Square: shows statistically significant relationship Political Rights and Civil Liberties and Internal Conflict Gamma: shows moderate negative relationship between Political Rights, Civil Liberties, Good Governance, HDI and Internal Conflict. 11/16/10

  7. Probit Regression Statistically significant associations (at =0.05) are shown in blue Combined Model: Highest predictability rate (21.61%). As a country’s Good Governance score increases by 1 unit, the likelihood conflict within that country will fall by 10.3%. Significance of Good Governance MFX(0.031) is below 0.05 alpha level  statistically significant relationship between Good Governance and Internal Conflict.

  8. Conclusions and Policy Recommendations • Accept research hypothesis: there is a statistically significant relationship between quality of life and internal conflict (specifically, political rights and civil liberties) • Support civil rights movements and development. • Provide assistance for elections and government accountability and transparency.

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